Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121111
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains on Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough develops northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee trough extending southward along much of the length of the northern/central High Plains. Northward advance of low-level moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by late Tuesday afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday afternoon through evening. Confidence in a more focused area of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time. There also appears to be some chance for stronger thunderstorms to occur across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the northern/central Rockies. While low-level moisture will generally be more limited compared to the High Plains, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support modestly organized convection are forecast. Isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this high-based activity as it spreads east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include more of WY, southern MT, eastern ID, and northern/eastern UT based on latest guidance trends. ...South Carolina and Vicinity... As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some enhancement to west-northwesterly winds will occur across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for modestly organized convection. But, poor lapse rates aloft may tend to limit instability to some extent across SC and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, confidence has increased that isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasionally strong to damaging winds should occur, and a Marginal Risk has been introduced to account for this potential. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains on Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough develops northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee trough extending southward along much of the length of the northern/central High Plains. Northward advance of low-level moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by late Tuesday afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday afternoon through evening. Confidence in a more focused area of severe potential remains too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time. There also appears to be some chance for stronger thunderstorms to occur across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the northern/central Rockies. While low-level moisture will generally be more limited compared to the High Plains, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support modestly organized convection are forecast. Isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this high-based activity as it spreads east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include more of WY, southern MT, eastern ID, and northern/eastern UT based on latest guidance trends. ...South Carolina and Vicinity... As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some enhancement to west-northwesterly winds will occur across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for modestly organized convection. But, poor lapse rates aloft may tend to limit instability to some extent across SC and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, confidence has increased that isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing occasionally strong to damaging winds should occur, and a Marginal Risk has been introduced to account for this potential. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more