Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR MISSING HAZARD GRAPHICS LABELS ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR MISSING HAZARD GRAPHICS LABELS ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR MISSING HAZARD GRAPHICS LABELS ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR MISSING HAZARD GRAPHICS LABELS ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Northeast Kansas to Iowa... Strong short-wave trough is currently progressing across the Pacific Northwest and should advance quickly into western WY/eastern UT by sunrise. This feature will dig a bit southeast into the central High Plains by late afternoon, then into the lower MO Valley by 25/12z. As the short wave approaches the Plains, LLJ should respond then focus across northeast KS into central IA shortly after peak heating. Latest model guidance suggests this dynamic system will encourage a warm front to advance north and extend from southeast NE into western MO prior to a cold front surging into this region. Current thinking is the strongest surface heating should be noted from the TX Panhandle into northeast KS where 0-3km lapse rates are expected to steepen such that CINH will be negligible by 22z. While absolute values of PW are not expected to be that high, mid 50s surface dew points may be common across the warm sector over eastern KS. This should yield MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg where temperatures rise into the mid 80s. While scattered convection is expected to develop along the surging cold front, low-level warm advection is expected to aid initial development along the nose of the LLJ across IA. Forecast soundings exhibit favorably strong veering winds with height and ample shear for sustained, rotating updrafts. It would appear some supercell threat is possible and convection that develops near the steeper low-level lapse rate plume could generate gusty winds. Otherwise, some risk for hail should accompany elevated updrafts north of the warm front, along with warm sector storms. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk for hail, and this may still be warranted if sufficient severe coverage is anticipated. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Northeast Kansas to Iowa... Strong short-wave trough is currently progressing across the Pacific Northwest and should advance quickly into western WY/eastern UT by sunrise. This feature will dig a bit southeast into the central High Plains by late afternoon, then into the lower MO Valley by 25/12z. As the short wave approaches the Plains, LLJ should respond then focus across northeast KS into central IA shortly after peak heating. Latest model guidance suggests this dynamic system will encourage a warm front to advance north and extend from southeast NE into western MO prior to a cold front surging into this region. Current thinking is the strongest surface heating should be noted from the TX Panhandle into northeast KS where 0-3km lapse rates are expected to steepen such that CINH will be negligible by 22z. While absolute values of PW are not expected to be that high, mid 50s surface dew points may be common across the warm sector over eastern KS. This should yield MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg where temperatures rise into the mid 80s. While scattered convection is expected to develop along the surging cold front, low-level warm advection is expected to aid initial development along the nose of the LLJ across IA. Forecast soundings exhibit favorably strong veering winds with height and ample shear for sustained, rotating updrafts. It would appear some supercell threat is possible and convection that develops near the steeper low-level lapse rate plume could generate gusty winds. Otherwise, some risk for hail should accompany elevated updrafts north of the warm front, along with warm sector storms. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk for hail, and this may still be warranted if sufficient severe coverage is anticipated. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Northeast Kansas to Iowa... Strong short-wave trough is currently progressing across the Pacific Northwest and should advance quickly into western WY/eastern UT by sunrise. This feature will dig a bit southeast into the central High Plains by late afternoon, then into the lower MO Valley by 25/12z. As the short wave approaches the Plains, LLJ should respond then focus across northeast KS into central IA shortly after peak heating. Latest model guidance suggests this dynamic system will encourage a warm front to advance north and extend from southeast NE into western MO prior to a cold front surging into this region. Current thinking is the strongest surface heating should be noted from the TX Panhandle into northeast KS where 0-3km lapse rates are expected to steepen such that CINH will be negligible by 22z. While absolute values of PW are not expected to be that high, mid 50s surface dew points may be common across the warm sector over eastern KS. This should yield MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg where temperatures rise into the mid 80s. While scattered convection is expected to develop along the surging cold front, low-level warm advection is expected to aid initial development along the nose of the LLJ across IA. Forecast soundings exhibit favorably strong veering winds with height and ample shear for sustained, rotating updrafts. It would appear some supercell threat is possible and convection that develops near the steeper low-level lapse rate plume could generate gusty winds. Otherwise, some risk for hail should accompany elevated updrafts north of the warm front, along with warm sector storms. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk for hail, and this may still be warranted if sufficient severe coverage is anticipated. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Northeast Kansas to Iowa... Strong short-wave trough is currently progressing across the Pacific Northwest and should advance quickly into western WY/eastern UT by sunrise. This feature will dig a bit southeast into the central High Plains by late afternoon, then into the lower MO Valley by 25/12z. As the short wave approaches the Plains, LLJ should respond then focus across northeast KS into central IA shortly after peak heating. Latest model guidance suggests this dynamic system will encourage a warm front to advance north and extend from southeast NE into western MO prior to a cold front surging into this region. Current thinking is the strongest surface heating should be noted from the TX Panhandle into northeast KS where 0-3km lapse rates are expected to steepen such that CINH will be negligible by 22z. While absolute values of PW are not expected to be that high, mid 50s surface dew points may be common across the warm sector over eastern KS. This should yield MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg where temperatures rise into the mid 80s. While scattered convection is expected to develop along the surging cold front, low-level warm advection is expected to aid initial development along the nose of the LLJ across IA. Forecast soundings exhibit favorably strong veering winds with height and ample shear for sustained, rotating updrafts. It would appear some supercell threat is possible and convection that develops near the steeper low-level lapse rate plume could generate gusty winds. Otherwise, some risk for hail should accompany elevated updrafts north of the warm front, along with warm sector storms. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk for hail, and this may still be warranted if sufficient severe coverage is anticipated. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Northeast Kansas to Iowa... Strong short-wave trough is currently progressing across the Pacific Northwest and should advance quickly into western WY/eastern UT by sunrise. This feature will dig a bit southeast into the central High Plains by late afternoon, then into the lower MO Valley by 25/12z. As the short wave approaches the Plains, LLJ should respond then focus across northeast KS into central IA shortly after peak heating. Latest model guidance suggests this dynamic system will encourage a warm front to advance north and extend from southeast NE into western MO prior to a cold front surging into this region. Current thinking is the strongest surface heating should be noted from the TX Panhandle into northeast KS where 0-3km lapse rates are expected to steepen such that CINH will be negligible by 22z. While absolute values of PW are not expected to be that high, mid 50s surface dew points may be common across the warm sector over eastern KS. This should yield MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg where temperatures rise into the mid 80s. While scattered convection is expected to develop along the surging cold front, low-level warm advection is expected to aid initial development along the nose of the LLJ across IA. Forecast soundings exhibit favorably strong veering winds with height and ample shear for sustained, rotating updrafts. It would appear some supercell threat is possible and convection that develops near the steeper low-level lapse rate plume could generate gusty winds. Otherwise, some risk for hail should accompany elevated updrafts north of the warm front, along with warm sector storms. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk for hail, and this may still be warranted if sufficient severe coverage is anticipated. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat remains low through tonight. ...01z Update... Strong positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. At the surface, a seasonally strong cold front has advanced into central NY-western PA-southern OH. This flow regime allowed a corridor of weak instability to develop ahead of the front where low-level lapse rates steepened as temperatures warmed through the upper 60s to near 70F. As a result, weak convection developed along/ahead of the wind shift, and a few updrafts penetrated levels necessary for lightning discharge. 00z sounding from PIT supports this with SBCAPE on the order of 300 J/kg and EL temperature near -30C. However, nocturnal cooling should lead to weakening lapse rates and instability. While a few flashes may linger for the next hour or so, most convection should remain too shallow thereafter to produce significant lightning. ..Darrow.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat remains low through tonight. ...01z Update... Strong positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. At the surface, a seasonally strong cold front has advanced into central NY-western PA-southern OH. This flow regime allowed a corridor of weak instability to develop ahead of the front where low-level lapse rates steepened as temperatures warmed through the upper 60s to near 70F. As a result, weak convection developed along/ahead of the wind shift, and a few updrafts penetrated levels necessary for lightning discharge. 00z sounding from PIT supports this with SBCAPE on the order of 300 J/kg and EL temperature near -30C. However, nocturnal cooling should lead to weakening lapse rates and instability. While a few flashes may linger for the next hour or so, most convection should remain too shallow thereafter to produce significant lightning. ..Darrow.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat remains low through tonight. ...01z Update... Strong positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. At the surface, a seasonally strong cold front has advanced into central NY-western PA-southern OH. This flow regime allowed a corridor of weak instability to develop ahead of the front where low-level lapse rates steepened as temperatures warmed through the upper 60s to near 70F. As a result, weak convection developed along/ahead of the wind shift, and a few updrafts penetrated levels necessary for lightning discharge. 00z sounding from PIT supports this with SBCAPE on the order of 300 J/kg and EL temperature near -30C. However, nocturnal cooling should lead to weakening lapse rates and instability. While a few flashes may linger for the next hour or so, most convection should remain too shallow thereafter to produce significant lightning. ..Darrow.. 10/24/2024 Read more

The Buffalo National River issued fire restrictions due to dry conditions across the region. Under the fire restrictions, lighting or maintaining a campfire within the boundaries of Buffalo National River is prohibited except within designated campgrounds with established campfire grates/rings and on gravel bars in areas that are naturally free of vegetation. KNWA-TV & FOX 24 (Fayetteville, Ark.), Oct 18, 2024