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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weak cold front. Here, a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may develop during the afternoon, with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. The most favorable large-scale ascent will be during the first half of the day in association with a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Thereafter, lift becomes quite weak. ..Jewell.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z Dry return flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates higher dewpoints will return to portions of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri than previously forecast, leading to a westward shift of the Elevated area. While RH will be around elevated criteria, temperatures will be well above normal in addition to the strong southerly winds across portions of the southern/central Plains. Areas farther west in Kansas and Texas were not included due to recent rainfall. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern Colorado behind the cold front, but recent rainfall should mitigate concerns. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z Dry return flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates higher dewpoints will return to portions of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri than previously forecast, leading to a westward shift of the Elevated area. While RH will be around elevated criteria, temperatures will be well above normal in addition to the strong southerly winds across portions of the southern/central Plains. Areas farther west in Kansas and Texas were not included due to recent rainfall. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern Colorado behind the cold front, but recent rainfall should mitigate concerns. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z Dry return flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates higher dewpoints will return to portions of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri than previously forecast, leading to a westward shift of the Elevated area. While RH will be around elevated criteria, temperatures will be well above normal in addition to the strong southerly winds across portions of the southern/central Plains. Areas farther west in Kansas and Texas were not included due to recent rainfall. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern Colorado behind the cold front, but recent rainfall should mitigate concerns. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z Dry return flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates higher dewpoints will return to portions of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri than previously forecast, leading to a westward shift of the Elevated area. While RH will be around elevated criteria, temperatures will be well above normal in addition to the strong southerly winds across portions of the southern/central Plains. Areas farther west in Kansas and Texas were not included due to recent rainfall. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern Colorado behind the cold front, but recent rainfall should mitigate concerns. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z Dry return flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates higher dewpoints will return to portions of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri than previously forecast, leading to a westward shift of the Elevated area. While RH will be around elevated criteria, temperatures will be well above normal in addition to the strong southerly winds across portions of the southern/central Plains. Areas farther west in Kansas and Texas were not included due to recent rainfall. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern Colorado behind the cold front, but recent rainfall should mitigate concerns. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z Dry return flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates higher dewpoints will return to portions of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri than previously forecast, leading to a westward shift of the Elevated area. While RH will be around elevated criteria, temperatures will be well above normal in addition to the strong southerly winds across portions of the southern/central Plains. Areas farther west in Kansas and Texas were not included due to recent rainfall. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern Colorado behind the cold front, but recent rainfall should mitigate concerns. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and DCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and DCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and DCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and DCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and DCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and DCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 10/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231708
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams

Delmarva Christmas tree growers have reported unprecedented losses this year. A Christmas tree farm in Denton lost about 300 mature trees amid the heat and drought of the summer. About 1,700 young trees with drip irrigation also perished as it was simply too hot for them. WBOC-TV CBS 16 Salisbury (Md.), Oct 21, 2024

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward today from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A related surface cold front will likewise advance eastward across these areas, with shallow convection possible along its length. Limited low-level moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the development of sufficient instability to support charge separation and lightning. Very isolated convection may also develop late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Ozarks, along/near the southern flank of the surface cold. Although some low-level moisture and instability will be present along/south of the front, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain minimal across this region. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm chances still appear less than 10% through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward today from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A related surface cold front will likewise advance eastward across these areas, with shallow convection possible along its length. Limited low-level moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the development of sufficient instability to support charge separation and lightning. Very isolated convection may also develop late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Ozarks, along/near the southern flank of the surface cold. Although some low-level moisture and instability will be present along/south of the front, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain minimal across this region. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm chances still appear less than 10% through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward today from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A related surface cold front will likewise advance eastward across these areas, with shallow convection possible along its length. Limited low-level moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the development of sufficient instability to support charge separation and lightning. Very isolated convection may also develop late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Ozarks, along/near the southern flank of the surface cold. Although some low-level moisture and instability will be present along/south of the front, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain minimal across this region. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm chances still appear less than 10% through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward today from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A related surface cold front will likewise advance eastward across these areas, with shallow convection possible along its length. Limited low-level moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the development of sufficient instability to support charge separation and lightning. Very isolated convection may also develop late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Ozarks, along/near the southern flank of the surface cold. Although some low-level moisture and instability will be present along/south of the front, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain minimal across this region. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm chances still appear less than 10% through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward today from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A related surface cold front will likewise advance eastward across these areas, with shallow convection possible along its length. Limited low-level moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the development of sufficient instability to support charge separation and lightning. Very isolated convection may also develop late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Ozarks, along/near the southern flank of the surface cold. Although some low-level moisture and instability will be present along/south of the front, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain minimal across this region. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm chances still appear less than 10% through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/23/2024 Read more