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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located about a couple hundred miles off
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions only
appear marginally favorable for some additional development of this
system over the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Beyond
that time, the system is forecast to move into a less favorable
environment, ending its development chances. Regardless of
formation, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of coastal southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, remain possible this evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is advancing east across the northern intermountain region early this evening. This feature is beginning to flatten the ridge over western WY and scattered convection has responded downstream where boundary-layer heating is maximized. 00z sounding from SLC exhibits near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 4km, and modest deep-layer shear; although, PW values are not particularly high with values around one inch. Latest diagnostic data suggests pockets of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg extend from southern MT into eastern CO where considerably more buoyancy exists, especially across southeast CO into the northern TX Panhandle. Several gusts have exceeded 50kt with convection late this afternoon and this remains the primary concern for the next several hours. After sunset, boundary-layer cooling should hinder convective gusts as 0-3km lapse rates weaken. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, remain possible this evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is advancing east across the northern intermountain region early this evening. This feature is beginning to flatten the ridge over western WY and scattered convection has responded downstream where boundary-layer heating is maximized. 00z sounding from SLC exhibits near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 4km, and modest deep-layer shear; although, PW values are not particularly high with values around one inch. Latest diagnostic data suggests pockets of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg extend from southern MT into eastern CO where considerably more buoyancy exists, especially across southeast CO into the northern TX Panhandle. Several gusts have exceeded 50kt with convection late this afternoon and this remains the primary concern for the next several hours. After sunset, boundary-layer cooling should hinder convective gusts as 0-3km lapse rates weaken. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, remain possible this evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is advancing east across the northern intermountain region early this evening. This feature is beginning to flatten the ridge over western WY and scattered convection has responded downstream where boundary-layer heating is maximized. 00z sounding from SLC exhibits near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 4km, and modest deep-layer shear; although, PW values are not particularly high with values around one inch. Latest diagnostic data suggests pockets of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg extend from southern MT into eastern CO where considerably more buoyancy exists, especially across southeast CO into the northern TX Panhandle. Several gusts have exceeded 50kt with convection late this afternoon and this remains the primary concern for the next several hours. After sunset, boundary-layer cooling should hinder convective gusts as 0-3km lapse rates weaken. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2024 Read more

MD 1878 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102242Z - 110015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe winds (max intensity of 50-60 mph) may occur as a line of convection moves towards I-15. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of convection has developed in west-central Utah this afternoon. Aided by enhanced mid-level winds on the southern flank of a mid-level trough, this activity is moving east towards parts of the I-15 corridor. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote some risk of strong to severe winds (likely peaking in the 50-60 mph range). There is a marginal increase in MLCIN right along the edge of the terrain. These wind gusts will likely remain isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC... LAT...LON 39571313 40211276 40701250 40721212 40451159 39891167 39521202 39261250 39271271 39571313 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible
during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Beyond
that time, the system is forecast to move into a more stable
environment, limiting additional development. Regardless of
formation, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of coastal southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 10 22:45:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1878 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102242Z - 110015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe winds (max intensity of 50-60 mph) may occur as a line of convection moves towards I-15. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of convection has developed in west-central Utah this afternoon. Aided by enhanced mid-level winds on the southern flank of a mid-level trough, this activity is moving east towards parts of the I-15 corridor. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote some risk of strong to severe winds (likely peaking in the 50-60 mph range). There is a marginal increase in MLCIN right along the edge of the terrain. These wind gusts will likely remain isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC... LAT...LON 39571313 40211276 40701250 40721212 40451159 39891167 39521202 39261250 39271271 39571313 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 10 22:16:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1877 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ID...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MT...WESTERN/CENTRAL WY
Mesoscale Discussion 1877 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern ID...southwest/south-central MT...western/central WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102013Z - 102215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon from eastern ID into southwest MT and western WY, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the interior Northwest. Low-level moisture remains rather limited, but steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of near or above 500 J/kg where somewhat stronger diurnal heating has occurred. One supercell is ongoing near the ID/WY border, and effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support occasionally organized storms through the afternoon. Isolated hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible with the initially discrete storms. With time, one or more outflow-dominant clusters could evolve and spread east-southeastward, resulting in localized corridors of somewhat greater strong to severe gust potential. ..Dean/Goss.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 42961217 43561154 44031180 44171256 44641374 45811326 46631201 47081031 46670967 45410853 43100623 42180701 42540962 42521176 42961217 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more