Aggregator

968
ABPZ20 KNHC 230527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly warned of dry conditions, noting that any fires that start could become difficult to control very quickly. NWS Mount Holly strongly discouraged outdoor burning. The News Journal Online (Wilmington, Delaware), Oct 23, 2024

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated on Wednesday. A surface high pressure will move across the central United States today in the wake of a departing mid-level shortwave. This will reinforce the dry airmass entrenched across the central U.S. However, slightly cooler temperatures, especially as you go farther north, will act to limit relative humidity from falling low enough to support critical fire weather conditions. Across the Northeast, gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite these strong, gusty winds (perhaps gusting up to 30 mph), relative humidity should remain sufficiently high (around 40%) to prevent the need for highlights. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated on Wednesday. A surface high pressure will move across the central United States today in the wake of a departing mid-level shortwave. This will reinforce the dry airmass entrenched across the central U.S. However, slightly cooler temperatures, especially as you go farther north, will act to limit relative humidity from falling low enough to support critical fire weather conditions. Across the Northeast, gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite these strong, gusty winds (perhaps gusting up to 30 mph), relative humidity should remain sufficiently high (around 40%) to prevent the need for highlights. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated on Wednesday. A surface high pressure will move across the central United States today in the wake of a departing mid-level shortwave. This will reinforce the dry airmass entrenched across the central U.S. However, slightly cooler temperatures, especially as you go farther north, will act to limit relative humidity from falling low enough to support critical fire weather conditions. Across the Northeast, gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite these strong, gusty winds (perhaps gusting up to 30 mph), relative humidity should remain sufficiently high (around 40%) to prevent the need for highlights. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated on Wednesday. A surface high pressure will move across the central United States today in the wake of a departing mid-level shortwave. This will reinforce the dry airmass entrenched across the central U.S. However, slightly cooler temperatures, especially as you go farther north, will act to limit relative humidity from falling low enough to support critical fire weather conditions. Across the Northeast, gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite these strong, gusty winds (perhaps gusting up to 30 mph), relative humidity should remain sufficiently high (around 40%) to prevent the need for highlights. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated on Wednesday. A surface high pressure will move across the central United States today in the wake of a departing mid-level shortwave. This will reinforce the dry airmass entrenched across the central U.S. However, slightly cooler temperatures, especially as you go farther north, will act to limit relative humidity from falling low enough to support critical fire weather conditions. Across the Northeast, gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite these strong, gusty winds (perhaps gusting up to 30 mph), relative humidity should remain sufficiently high (around 40%) to prevent the need for highlights. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... A broad mid/upper-level trough will progress across parts of southeast Canada and over the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Large-scale ascent will remain on the modest side along an attendant surface cold front moving similarly eastward. Moisture return ahead of it will be rather limited, and MUCAPE should only peak around 100 J/kg. These factors suggest that while a brief thunderstorm or two is possible, overall thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ...Central AR to southeast OK... The trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front will sag south and eventually stall, where it will intercept a plume of moderate boundary-layer moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around 12 g/kg. Pockets of weak low-level convergence could support shallow convective attempts by late afternoon. While a brief thunderstorm is plausible, the lack of forcing for ascent beyond the stalled front and persistent warm/dry mid-levels suggest thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... A broad mid/upper-level trough will progress across parts of southeast Canada and over the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Large-scale ascent will remain on the modest side along an attendant surface cold front moving similarly eastward. Moisture return ahead of it will be rather limited, and MUCAPE should only peak around 100 J/kg. These factors suggest that while a brief thunderstorm or two is possible, overall thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ...Central AR to southeast OK... The trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front will sag south and eventually stall, where it will intercept a plume of moderate boundary-layer moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around 12 g/kg. Pockets of weak low-level convergence could support shallow convective attempts by late afternoon. While a brief thunderstorm is plausible, the lack of forcing for ascent beyond the stalled front and persistent warm/dry mid-levels suggest thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... A broad mid/upper-level trough will progress across parts of southeast Canada and over the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Large-scale ascent will remain on the modest side along an attendant surface cold front moving similarly eastward. Moisture return ahead of it will be rather limited, and MUCAPE should only peak around 100 J/kg. These factors suggest that while a brief thunderstorm or two is possible, overall thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ...Central AR to southeast OK... The trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front will sag south and eventually stall, where it will intercept a plume of moderate boundary-layer moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around 12 g/kg. Pockets of weak low-level convergence could support shallow convective attempts by late afternoon. While a brief thunderstorm is plausible, the lack of forcing for ascent beyond the stalled front and persistent warm/dry mid-levels suggest thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... A broad mid/upper-level trough will progress across parts of southeast Canada and over the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Large-scale ascent will remain on the modest side along an attendant surface cold front moving similarly eastward. Moisture return ahead of it will be rather limited, and MUCAPE should only peak around 100 J/kg. These factors suggest that while a brief thunderstorm or two is possible, overall thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ...Central AR to southeast OK... The trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front will sag south and eventually stall, where it will intercept a plume of moderate boundary-layer moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around 12 g/kg. Pockets of weak low-level convergence could support shallow convective attempts by late afternoon. While a brief thunderstorm is plausible, the lack of forcing for ascent beyond the stalled front and persistent warm/dry mid-levels suggest thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... A broad mid/upper-level trough will progress across parts of southeast Canada and over the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Large-scale ascent will remain on the modest side along an attendant surface cold front moving similarly eastward. Moisture return ahead of it will be rather limited, and MUCAPE should only peak around 100 J/kg. These factors suggest that while a brief thunderstorm or two is possible, overall thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ...Central AR to southeast OK... The trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front will sag south and eventually stall, where it will intercept a plume of moderate boundary-layer moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around 12 g/kg. Pockets of weak low-level convergence could support shallow convective attempts by late afternoon. While a brief thunderstorm is plausible, the lack of forcing for ascent beyond the stalled front and persistent warm/dry mid-levels suggest thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/23/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 02:37:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 03:22:56 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 230235 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 115W 34 1 93(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 115W 50 X 59(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 115W 64 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 74(75) 16(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 35(35) 29(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 23(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 73(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 62(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 1(43) X(43) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 2(55) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230235 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 Kristy continues to steadily intensify. 1-minute geostationary satellite imagery show continuous deep bursts of convection near the center, a curved band wrapping around the western and southern portions of the circulation, and symmetric upper-level outflow. An AMSR2 microwave pass from 1919 UTC showed a vertically aligned low- and mid-level eye. Dvorak estimates have increased this cycle and the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt, representing a blend of the TAFB (T4.0/65 kt) and SAB (T4.5/77 kt) classifications. A subtropical ridge to the north is steering the hurricane to the west at about 17 kt. This westward motion should continue for the next couple of days until Kristy reaches a weakness in the ridge. By Friday, models anticipate the hurricane to turn west-northwestward followed by a northwestward turn on Saturday. The more shallow vortex is expect to bend back to the west-northwest in the low-level flow by the end of the forecast period. The guidance envelope remains tightly clustered and there are only minor changes made to the latest official track forecast. There is little change to the intensity forecast reasoning as well. Low vertical wind shear, ample mid-level moisture, and warm sea surface temperature all provide the ingredients to support steady to rapid intensification. Statistical guidance is still showing above average chances of rapid intensification in the next 24 h and the official forecast reflects this. Global models suggest vertical wind shear could increase quickly by Friday as Kristy approaches cooler waters. Steady to rapid weakening is expected beyond 72 h and Kristy should lose its organized deep convection by 120 h and become a post-tropical cyclone. The latest intensity forecast lies at the top of the guidance envelope in the short-term and closer to center during the middle to long-range time periods. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 14.7N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.5N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.2N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.4N 127.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 19.2N 131.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 20.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Bucci