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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A risk for hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, is forecast across eastern New Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. ...Eastern New Mexico... 500mb speed max appears to be translating through the base of the trough into the downstream side of the upper low over western NM early this morning. This evolution will finally warrant an ejection of the low into southern CO by the end of the period. Large-scale surface pattern remains favorable for southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the southern High Plains as a dominant surface anticyclone persists downstream from eastern OK into the Middle Atlantic. Deep convection has been common ahead of the upper trough the last few days, especially across NM where longer-lived updrafts/supercells have been observed at times during the late afternoon/early evening. This is once again expected later today as the strongest low-level heating will extend from northern Mexico into the Colorado Plateau and western slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating will lead to weak inhibition across this region by 20z and thunderstorms should readily develop, subsequently spreading downstream into eastern NM where shear favors some longer-lived updrafts. While the magnitude of instability will not be that strong, lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for robust updrafts and supercells. Greatest risk for strong/severe convection will be from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Some risk for all hazards is possible across portions of eastern NM. Eastern extent of this activity will drop off sharply due to the influence of drier/more stable low-level air mass over the southern Plains. ..Darrow/Moore.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A risk for hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, is forecast across eastern New Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. ...Eastern New Mexico... 500mb speed max appears to be translating through the base of the trough into the downstream side of the upper low over western NM early this morning. This evolution will finally warrant an ejection of the low into southern CO by the end of the period. Large-scale surface pattern remains favorable for southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the southern High Plains as a dominant surface anticyclone persists downstream from eastern OK into the Middle Atlantic. Deep convection has been common ahead of the upper trough the last few days, especially across NM where longer-lived updrafts/supercells have been observed at times during the late afternoon/early evening. This is once again expected later today as the strongest low-level heating will extend from northern Mexico into the Colorado Plateau and western slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating will lead to weak inhibition across this region by 20z and thunderstorms should readily develop, subsequently spreading downstream into eastern NM where shear favors some longer-lived updrafts. While the magnitude of instability will not be that strong, lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for robust updrafts and supercells. Greatest risk for strong/severe convection will be from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Some risk for all hazards is possible across portions of eastern NM. Eastern extent of this activity will drop off sharply due to the influence of drier/more stable low-level air mass over the southern Plains. ..Darrow/Moore.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A risk for hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, is forecast across eastern New Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. ...Eastern New Mexico... 500mb speed max appears to be translating through the base of the trough into the downstream side of the upper low over western NM early this morning. This evolution will finally warrant an ejection of the low into southern CO by the end of the period. Large-scale surface pattern remains favorable for southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the southern High Plains as a dominant surface anticyclone persists downstream from eastern OK into the Middle Atlantic. Deep convection has been common ahead of the upper trough the last few days, especially across NM where longer-lived updrafts/supercells have been observed at times during the late afternoon/early evening. This is once again expected later today as the strongest low-level heating will extend from northern Mexico into the Colorado Plateau and western slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating will lead to weak inhibition across this region by 20z and thunderstorms should readily develop, subsequently spreading downstream into eastern NM where shear favors some longer-lived updrafts. While the magnitude of instability will not be that strong, lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for robust updrafts and supercells. Greatest risk for strong/severe convection will be from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Some risk for all hazards is possible across portions of eastern NM. Eastern extent of this activity will drop off sharply due to the influence of drier/more stable low-level air mass over the southern Plains. ..Darrow/Moore.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A risk for hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, is forecast across eastern New Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. ...Eastern New Mexico... 500mb speed max appears to be translating through the base of the trough into the downstream side of the upper low over western NM early this morning. This evolution will finally warrant an ejection of the low into southern CO by the end of the period. Large-scale surface pattern remains favorable for southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the southern High Plains as a dominant surface anticyclone persists downstream from eastern OK into the Middle Atlantic. Deep convection has been common ahead of the upper trough the last few days, especially across NM where longer-lived updrafts/supercells have been observed at times during the late afternoon/early evening. This is once again expected later today as the strongest low-level heating will extend from northern Mexico into the Colorado Plateau and western slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating will lead to weak inhibition across this region by 20z and thunderstorms should readily develop, subsequently spreading downstream into eastern NM where shear favors some longer-lived updrafts. While the magnitude of instability will not be that strong, lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for robust updrafts and supercells. Greatest risk for strong/severe convection will be from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Some risk for all hazards is possible across portions of eastern NM. Eastern extent of this activity will drop off sharply due to the influence of drier/more stable low-level air mass over the southern Plains. ..Darrow/Moore.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

940
ABPZ20 KNHC 200506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific by late Sunday. The
combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation
of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a
day or so. Additional development is expected after that time, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat remain possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this evening. ...01z Update... Strongest 500mb flow appears to be translating through the base of the trough into western NM early this evening. This speed max will advance into northern NM by the end of the period which will allow the upper low to begin ejecting northeast toward the Four Corners. Even so, negligible height changes will be noted across eastern NM/West TX during the overnight hours. Scattered-numerous thunderstorms have developed ahead of this upper feature with a broken band of strong/severe convection currently extending from near El Paso, northeast into Harding County NM, southwest of Clayton. Several supercells have developed along this corridor which are likely producing hail at/near severe levels, especially Chaves County. 00z soundings from both AMA and MAF exhibited substantial capping in the 700-750mb layer, though mid-level lapse rates are steep. A bit west, uncapped profiles are noted at EPZ and ABQ with strong deep-layer shear evident. Thunderstorms should continue to develop along the leading edge of upper trough/influence where inhibition is weak. Organized structures remain possible and large hail is the primary risk, though gusts and perhaps a tornado or two can not be ruled out this evening. ..Darrow.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat remain possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this evening. ...01z Update... Strongest 500mb flow appears to be translating through the base of the trough into western NM early this evening. This speed max will advance into northern NM by the end of the period which will allow the upper low to begin ejecting northeast toward the Four Corners. Even so, negligible height changes will be noted across eastern NM/West TX during the overnight hours. Scattered-numerous thunderstorms have developed ahead of this upper feature with a broken band of strong/severe convection currently extending from near El Paso, northeast into Harding County NM, southwest of Clayton. Several supercells have developed along this corridor which are likely producing hail at/near severe levels, especially Chaves County. 00z soundings from both AMA and MAF exhibited substantial capping in the 700-750mb layer, though mid-level lapse rates are steep. A bit west, uncapped profiles are noted at EPZ and ABQ with strong deep-layer shear evident. Thunderstorms should continue to develop along the leading edge of upper trough/influence where inhibition is weak. Organized structures remain possible and large hail is the primary risk, though gusts and perhaps a tornado or two can not be ruled out this evening. ..Darrow.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat remain possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this evening. ...01z Update... Strongest 500mb flow appears to be translating through the base of the trough into western NM early this evening. This speed max will advance into northern NM by the end of the period which will allow the upper low to begin ejecting northeast toward the Four Corners. Even so, negligible height changes will be noted across eastern NM/West TX during the overnight hours. Scattered-numerous thunderstorms have developed ahead of this upper feature with a broken band of strong/severe convection currently extending from near El Paso, northeast into Harding County NM, southwest of Clayton. Several supercells have developed along this corridor which are likely producing hail at/near severe levels, especially Chaves County. 00z soundings from both AMA and MAF exhibited substantial capping in the 700-750mb layer, though mid-level lapse rates are steep. A bit west, uncapped profiles are noted at EPZ and ABQ with strong deep-layer shear evident. Thunderstorms should continue to develop along the leading edge of upper trough/influence where inhibition is weak. Organized structures remain possible and large hail is the primary risk, though gusts and perhaps a tornado or two can not be ruled out this evening. ..Darrow.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat remain possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this evening. ...01z Update... Strongest 500mb flow appears to be translating through the base of the trough into western NM early this evening. This speed max will advance into northern NM by the end of the period which will allow the upper low to begin ejecting northeast toward the Four Corners. Even so, negligible height changes will be noted across eastern NM/West TX during the overnight hours. Scattered-numerous thunderstorms have developed ahead of this upper feature with a broken band of strong/severe convection currently extending from near El Paso, northeast into Harding County NM, southwest of Clayton. Several supercells have developed along this corridor which are likely producing hail at/near severe levels, especially Chaves County. 00z soundings from both AMA and MAF exhibited substantial capping in the 700-750mb layer, though mid-level lapse rates are steep. A bit west, uncapped profiles are noted at EPZ and ABQ with strong deep-layer shear evident. Thunderstorms should continue to develop along the leading edge of upper trough/influence where inhibition is weak. Organized structures remain possible and large hail is the primary risk, though gusts and perhaps a tornado or two can not be ruled out this evening. ..Darrow.. 10/20/2024 Read more

515
ABPZ20 KNHC 192336
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific. The combination of the
remnants of Nadine and influences from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event are forecast to result in the formation of a new low
pressure system off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or
so. Additional development is expected after that time, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle
part of next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci