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WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW OAJ TO 30 E GSB TO 35 ENE RWI TO 30 ESE RZZ TO 40 S RIC TO 10 NE RIC TO 25 N RIC TO 35 NNW RIC TO 20 SSE SHD. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090840- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090840- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 615 TORNADO DC MD NC VA WV CW 082235Z - 091100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Eastern North Carolina Central and eastern Virginia The eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 635 PM until 700 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Convective bands with embedded supercells and the potential for a few tornadoes will persist overnight and spread northward from North Carolina into Virginia/Maryland with the remnants of tropical cyclone Debby. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Martinsburg WV to 35 miles east of Goldsboro NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 614. Watch number 614 will not be in effect after 635 PM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 17035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OAJ TO 30 ESE RWI TO 20 SE RZZ TO 5 N RZZ TO 20 NW AVC TO 35 NW AVC TO 10 S SHD. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090740- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090740- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms (gusts, perhaps hail) are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the south- central High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the persistent Southwestern ridging that is being weakened by a monsoonal trough will redevelop a closed high over central/west TX through day 2. A height weakness will remain from parts of AZ across the Four Corners to southern CO, through which small, collectively generated/enhanced vorticity lobes should move slowly. Farther north, a somewhat blocky, slow-moving pattern will be characterized by gradual breakdown of a Rex configuration now over western Canada, with an undercutting stream of nearly zonal flow across the Northwest and north-central Plains. This will converge into a belt of cyclonic flow around a substantial mid/upper cyclone -- now centered over the northern Lake Superior/Lakehead region of northern ON. Through the day-2 period, the low should pivot across northeastern ON to western QC south and southeast of James Bay, as a series of small shortwaves rotate through the cyclone's western/southern sectors. In response to these developments, the rapidly decaying, open-wave remnants of Debby should be absorbed into a baroclinic zone and ejecting away from the Northeast by the start of this period, leaving behind a cold front from central New England southwestward down the Piedmont in NC/SC to central GA and coastal LA. This boundary should become a diffuse warm front from LA northwestward across southeast/west-central TX to east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from the near the Hampton Roads area southwestward over southern GA and the western FL Panhandle, arching northwestward from southern LA across the TX Panhandle and into a low over southeastern CO/western OK Panhandle region. ...Central to south-central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible in a corridor extending southeastward from near the low, along the front, and off the nearby Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. Mid/upper support may be present in the form of a small perturbation or two migrating from the Four Corners region. Activity should develop during mid/late afternoon as boundary-layer convergence near the low and heating of elevated terrain combine to remove MLCINH, along the northwestern fringe of a plume of returning low-level moisture along and south of the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s and a deep troposphere will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. This area will have generally weak low-level speeds, but strong veering of winds with height under the southern fringe of favorable mid/upper winds, with 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. As such, organized multicells and perhaps brief supercells are possible, with isolated severe gusts and hail. Farther north/northwest across northeastern CO and central/eastern WY, an isolated, high-based, strong-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out -- moving out of higher terrain of the Bighorns, Laramie Range or northern Front Range/Cheyenne Ridge region -- beneath stronger mid/upper flow and greater deep shear. However, lack of more-robust moisture, and convective-coverage uncertainty, preclude an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms (gusts, perhaps hail) are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the south- central High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the persistent Southwestern ridging that is being weakened by a monsoonal trough will redevelop a closed high over central/west TX through day 2. A height weakness will remain from parts of AZ across the Four Corners to southern CO, through which small, collectively generated/enhanced vorticity lobes should move slowly. Farther north, a somewhat blocky, slow-moving pattern will be characterized by gradual breakdown of a Rex configuration now over western Canada, with an undercutting stream of nearly zonal flow across the Northwest and north-central Plains. This will converge into a belt of cyclonic flow around a substantial mid/upper cyclone -- now centered over the northern Lake Superior/Lakehead region of northern ON. Through the day-2 period, the low should pivot across northeastern ON to western QC south and southeast of James Bay, as a series of small shortwaves rotate through the cyclone's western/southern sectors. In response to these developments, the rapidly decaying, open-wave remnants of Debby should be absorbed into a baroclinic zone and ejecting away from the Northeast by the start of this period, leaving behind a cold front from central New England southwestward down the Piedmont in NC/SC to central GA and coastal LA. This boundary should become a diffuse warm front from LA northwestward across southeast/west-central TX to east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from the near the Hampton Roads area southwestward over southern GA and the western FL Panhandle, arching northwestward from southern LA across the TX Panhandle and into a low over southeastern CO/western OK Panhandle region. ...Central to south-central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible in a corridor extending southeastward from near the low, along the front, and off the nearby Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. Mid/upper support may be present in the form of a small perturbation or two migrating from the Four Corners region. Activity should develop during mid/late afternoon as boundary-layer convergence near the low and heating of elevated terrain combine to remove MLCINH, along the northwestern fringe of a plume of returning low-level moisture along and south of the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s and a deep troposphere will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. This area will have generally weak low-level speeds, but strong veering of winds with height under the southern fringe of favorable mid/upper winds, with 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. As such, organized multicells and perhaps brief supercells are possible, with isolated severe gusts and hail. Farther north/northwest across northeastern CO and central/eastern WY, an isolated, high-based, strong-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out -- moving out of higher terrain of the Bighorns, Laramie Range or northern Front Range/Cheyenne Ridge region -- beneath stronger mid/upper flow and greater deep shear. However, lack of more-robust moisture, and convective-coverage uncertainty, preclude an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms (gusts, perhaps hail) are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the south- central High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the persistent Southwestern ridging that is being weakened by a monsoonal trough will redevelop a closed high over central/west TX through day 2. A height weakness will remain from parts of AZ across the Four Corners to southern CO, through which small, collectively generated/enhanced vorticity lobes should move slowly. Farther north, a somewhat blocky, slow-moving pattern will be characterized by gradual breakdown of a Rex configuration now over western Canada, with an undercutting stream of nearly zonal flow across the Northwest and north-central Plains. This will converge into a belt of cyclonic flow around a substantial mid/upper cyclone -- now centered over the northern Lake Superior/Lakehead region of northern ON. Through the day-2 period, the low should pivot across northeastern ON to western QC south and southeast of James Bay, as a series of small shortwaves rotate through the cyclone's western/southern sectors. In response to these developments, the rapidly decaying, open-wave remnants of Debby should be absorbed into a baroclinic zone and ejecting away from the Northeast by the start of this period, leaving behind a cold front from central New England southwestward down the Piedmont in NC/SC to central GA and coastal LA. This boundary should become a diffuse warm front from LA northwestward across southeast/west-central TX to east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from the near the Hampton Roads area southwestward over southern GA and the western FL Panhandle, arching northwestward from southern LA across the TX Panhandle and into a low over southeastern CO/western OK Panhandle region. ...Central to south-central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible in a corridor extending southeastward from near the low, along the front, and off the nearby Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. Mid/upper support may be present in the form of a small perturbation or two migrating from the Four Corners region. Activity should develop during mid/late afternoon as boundary-layer convergence near the low and heating of elevated terrain combine to remove MLCINH, along the northwestern fringe of a plume of returning low-level moisture along and south of the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s and a deep troposphere will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. This area will have generally weak low-level speeds, but strong veering of winds with height under the southern fringe of favorable mid/upper winds, with 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. As such, organized multicells and perhaps brief supercells are possible, with isolated severe gusts and hail. Farther north/northwest across northeastern CO and central/eastern WY, an isolated, high-based, strong-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out -- moving out of higher terrain of the Bighorns, Laramie Range or northern Front Range/Cheyenne Ridge region -- beneath stronger mid/upper flow and greater deep shear. However, lack of more-robust moisture, and convective-coverage uncertainty, preclude an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms (gusts, perhaps hail) are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the south- central High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the persistent Southwestern ridging that is being weakened by a monsoonal trough will redevelop a closed high over central/west TX through day 2. A height weakness will remain from parts of AZ across the Four Corners to southern CO, through which small, collectively generated/enhanced vorticity lobes should move slowly. Farther north, a somewhat blocky, slow-moving pattern will be characterized by gradual breakdown of a Rex configuration now over western Canada, with an undercutting stream of nearly zonal flow across the Northwest and north-central Plains. This will converge into a belt of cyclonic flow around a substantial mid/upper cyclone -- now centered over the northern Lake Superior/Lakehead region of northern ON. Through the day-2 period, the low should pivot across northeastern ON to western QC south and southeast of James Bay, as a series of small shortwaves rotate through the cyclone's western/southern sectors. In response to these developments, the rapidly decaying, open-wave remnants of Debby should be absorbed into a baroclinic zone and ejecting away from the Northeast by the start of this period, leaving behind a cold front from central New England southwestward down the Piedmont in NC/SC to central GA and coastal LA. This boundary should become a diffuse warm front from LA northwestward across southeast/west-central TX to east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from the near the Hampton Roads area southwestward over southern GA and the western FL Panhandle, arching northwestward from southern LA across the TX Panhandle and into a low over southeastern CO/western OK Panhandle region. ...Central to south-central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible in a corridor extending southeastward from near the low, along the front, and off the nearby Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. Mid/upper support may be present in the form of a small perturbation or two migrating from the Four Corners region. Activity should develop during mid/late afternoon as boundary-layer convergence near the low and heating of elevated terrain combine to remove MLCINH, along the northwestern fringe of a plume of returning low-level moisture along and south of the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s and a deep troposphere will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. This area will have generally weak low-level speeds, but strong veering of winds with height under the southern fringe of favorable mid/upper winds, with 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. As such, organized multicells and perhaps brief supercells are possible, with isolated severe gusts and hail. Farther north/northwest across northeastern CO and central/eastern WY, an isolated, high-based, strong-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out -- moving out of higher terrain of the Bighorns, Laramie Range or northern Front Range/Cheyenne Ridge region -- beneath stronger mid/upper flow and greater deep shear. However, lack of more-robust moisture, and convective-coverage uncertainty, preclude an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms (gusts, perhaps hail) are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the south- central High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the persistent Southwestern ridging that is being weakened by a monsoonal trough will redevelop a closed high over central/west TX through day 2. A height weakness will remain from parts of AZ across the Four Corners to southern CO, through which small, collectively generated/enhanced vorticity lobes should move slowly. Farther north, a somewhat blocky, slow-moving pattern will be characterized by gradual breakdown of a Rex configuration now over western Canada, with an undercutting stream of nearly zonal flow across the Northwest and north-central Plains. This will converge into a belt of cyclonic flow around a substantial mid/upper cyclone -- now centered over the northern Lake Superior/Lakehead region of northern ON. Through the day-2 period, the low should pivot across northeastern ON to western QC south and southeast of James Bay, as a series of small shortwaves rotate through the cyclone's western/southern sectors. In response to these developments, the rapidly decaying, open-wave remnants of Debby should be absorbed into a baroclinic zone and ejecting away from the Northeast by the start of this period, leaving behind a cold front from central New England southwestward down the Piedmont in NC/SC to central GA and coastal LA. This boundary should become a diffuse warm front from LA northwestward across southeast/west-central TX to east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from the near the Hampton Roads area southwestward over southern GA and the western FL Panhandle, arching northwestward from southern LA across the TX Panhandle and into a low over southeastern CO/western OK Panhandle region. ...Central to south-central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible in a corridor extending southeastward from near the low, along the front, and off the nearby Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. Mid/upper support may be present in the form of a small perturbation or two migrating from the Four Corners region. Activity should develop during mid/late afternoon as boundary-layer convergence near the low and heating of elevated terrain combine to remove MLCINH, along the northwestern fringe of a plume of returning low-level moisture along and south of the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s and a deep troposphere will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. This area will have generally weak low-level speeds, but strong veering of winds with height under the southern fringe of favorable mid/upper winds, with 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. As such, organized multicells and perhaps brief supercells are possible, with isolated severe gusts and hail. Farther north/northwest across northeastern CO and central/eastern WY, an isolated, high-based, strong-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out -- moving out of higher terrain of the Bighorns, Laramie Range or northern Front Range/Cheyenne Ridge region -- beneath stronger mid/upper flow and greater deep shear. However, lack of more-robust moisture, and convective-coverage uncertainty, preclude an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms (gusts, perhaps hail) are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the south- central High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the persistent Southwestern ridging that is being weakened by a monsoonal trough will redevelop a closed high over central/west TX through day 2. A height weakness will remain from parts of AZ across the Four Corners to southern CO, through which small, collectively generated/enhanced vorticity lobes should move slowly. Farther north, a somewhat blocky, slow-moving pattern will be characterized by gradual breakdown of a Rex configuration now over western Canada, with an undercutting stream of nearly zonal flow across the Northwest and north-central Plains. This will converge into a belt of cyclonic flow around a substantial mid/upper cyclone -- now centered over the northern Lake Superior/Lakehead region of northern ON. Through the day-2 period, the low should pivot across northeastern ON to western QC south and southeast of James Bay, as a series of small shortwaves rotate through the cyclone's western/southern sectors. In response to these developments, the rapidly decaying, open-wave remnants of Debby should be absorbed into a baroclinic zone and ejecting away from the Northeast by the start of this period, leaving behind a cold front from central New England southwestward down the Piedmont in NC/SC to central GA and coastal LA. This boundary should become a diffuse warm front from LA northwestward across southeast/west-central TX to east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from the near the Hampton Roads area southwestward over southern GA and the western FL Panhandle, arching northwestward from southern LA across the TX Panhandle and into a low over southeastern CO/western OK Panhandle region. ...Central to south-central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible in a corridor extending southeastward from near the low, along the front, and off the nearby Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. Mid/upper support may be present in the form of a small perturbation or two migrating from the Four Corners region. Activity should develop during mid/late afternoon as boundary-layer convergence near the low and heating of elevated terrain combine to remove MLCINH, along the northwestern fringe of a plume of returning low-level moisture along and south of the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s and a deep troposphere will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. This area will have generally weak low-level speeds, but strong veering of winds with height under the southern fringe of favorable mid/upper winds, with 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. As such, organized multicells and perhaps brief supercells are possible, with isolated severe gusts and hail. Farther north/northwest across northeastern CO and central/eastern WY, an isolated, high-based, strong-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out -- moving out of higher terrain of the Bighorns, Laramie Range or northern Front Range/Cheyenne Ridge region -- beneath stronger mid/upper flow and greater deep shear. However, lack of more-robust moisture, and convective-coverage uncertainty, preclude an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms (gusts, perhaps hail) are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the south- central High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the persistent Southwestern ridging that is being weakened by a monsoonal trough will redevelop a closed high over central/west TX through day 2. A height weakness will remain from parts of AZ across the Four Corners to southern CO, through which small, collectively generated/enhanced vorticity lobes should move slowly. Farther north, a somewhat blocky, slow-moving pattern will be characterized by gradual breakdown of a Rex configuration now over western Canada, with an undercutting stream of nearly zonal flow across the Northwest and north-central Plains. This will converge into a belt of cyclonic flow around a substantial mid/upper cyclone -- now centered over the northern Lake Superior/Lakehead region of northern ON. Through the day-2 period, the low should pivot across northeastern ON to western QC south and southeast of James Bay, as a series of small shortwaves rotate through the cyclone's western/southern sectors. In response to these developments, the rapidly decaying, open-wave remnants of Debby should be absorbed into a baroclinic zone and ejecting away from the Northeast by the start of this period, leaving behind a cold front from central New England southwestward down the Piedmont in NC/SC to central GA and coastal LA. This boundary should become a diffuse warm front from LA northwestward across southeast/west-central TX to east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from the near the Hampton Roads area southwestward over southern GA and the western FL Panhandle, arching northwestward from southern LA across the TX Panhandle and into a low over southeastern CO/western OK Panhandle region. ...Central to south-central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible in a corridor extending southeastward from near the low, along the front, and off the nearby Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. Mid/upper support may be present in the form of a small perturbation or two migrating from the Four Corners region. Activity should develop during mid/late afternoon as boundary-layer convergence near the low and heating of elevated terrain combine to remove MLCINH, along the northwestern fringe of a plume of returning low-level moisture along and south of the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s and a deep troposphere will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. This area will have generally weak low-level speeds, but strong veering of winds with height under the southern fringe of favorable mid/upper winds, with 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. As such, organized multicells and perhaps brief supercells are possible, with isolated severe gusts and hail. Farther north/northwest across northeastern CO and central/eastern WY, an isolated, high-based, strong-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out -- moving out of higher terrain of the Bighorns, Laramie Range or northern Front Range/Cheyenne Ridge region -- beneath stronger mid/upper flow and greater deep shear. However, lack of more-robust moisture, and convective-coverage uncertainty, preclude an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms (gusts, perhaps hail) are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the south- central High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the persistent Southwestern ridging that is being weakened by a monsoonal trough will redevelop a closed high over central/west TX through day 2. A height weakness will remain from parts of AZ across the Four Corners to southern CO, through which small, collectively generated/enhanced vorticity lobes should move slowly. Farther north, a somewhat blocky, slow-moving pattern will be characterized by gradual breakdown of a Rex configuration now over western Canada, with an undercutting stream of nearly zonal flow across the Northwest and north-central Plains. This will converge into a belt of cyclonic flow around a substantial mid/upper cyclone -- now centered over the northern Lake Superior/Lakehead region of northern ON. Through the day-2 period, the low should pivot across northeastern ON to western QC south and southeast of James Bay, as a series of small shortwaves rotate through the cyclone's western/southern sectors. In response to these developments, the rapidly decaying, open-wave remnants of Debby should be absorbed into a baroclinic zone and ejecting away from the Northeast by the start of this period, leaving behind a cold front from central New England southwestward down the Piedmont in NC/SC to central GA and coastal LA. This boundary should become a diffuse warm front from LA northwestward across southeast/west-central TX to east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from the near the Hampton Roads area southwestward over southern GA and the western FL Panhandle, arching northwestward from southern LA across the TX Panhandle and into a low over southeastern CO/western OK Panhandle region. ...Central to south-central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible in a corridor extending southeastward from near the low, along the front, and off the nearby Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. Mid/upper support may be present in the form of a small perturbation or two migrating from the Four Corners region. Activity should develop during mid/late afternoon as boundary-layer convergence near the low and heating of elevated terrain combine to remove MLCINH, along the northwestern fringe of a plume of returning low-level moisture along and south of the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s and a deep troposphere will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. This area will have generally weak low-level speeds, but strong veering of winds with height under the southern fringe of favorable mid/upper winds, with 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. As such, organized multicells and perhaps brief supercells are possible, with isolated severe gusts and hail. Farther north/northwest across northeastern CO and central/eastern WY, an isolated, high-based, strong-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out -- moving out of higher terrain of the Bighorns, Laramie Range or northern Front Range/Cheyenne Ridge region -- beneath stronger mid/upper flow and greater deep shear. However, lack of more-robust moisture, and convective-coverage uncertainty, preclude an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more