Aggregator

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 090242 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Aug 2024 02:42:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Aug 2024 03:22:44 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...EMILIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 125.3W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 125.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed and turn westward is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical remnant low is expected to dissipate by the end of this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Papin

...EMILIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 22.3, -125.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024 769 WTPZ25 KNHC 090240 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.1N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 125.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

MD 1870 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Tornado Watch 615... Valid 090038Z - 090245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk continues with supercells this evening. DISCUSSION...Remnants of Debby have moved well inland and the center of circulation is now located over western NC, east of CLT. LLJ is strengthening across the middle Atlantic with latest model guidance suggesting this will continue through sunrise as LLJ translates into northern VA/MD/southern PA. Latest VAD data supports this with 0-3km SRH now in excess of 300 m2/s2 at LWX. Numerous small supercells are embedded within a larger precip shield, supported by moist low-level warm advection. Radar data suggests several of the more robust circulations have possibly produced tornadoes at times. While strong shear persists across portions of the Carolinas, with time the primary focus for organized supercells will begin to shift north across VA into MD. ..Darrow.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35447858 39567876 39567614 35437609 35447858 Read more

MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Central/Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090001Z - 090130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts remain possible into the early evening in parts of central/southern Arizona. DISCUSSION...A recent observed wind gust from the Tucson airport of 61 kts continues to suggest the potential for strong to severe wind gusts exists in parts of central/southern Arizona. Outflow is also becoming more evident on KIWA radar imagery. This outflow is generally moving toward the Phoenix metro area. Strong to severe wind gusts are possible as this occurs. Additional thunderstorms may also develop as these outflow propagate into the lower deserts and potentially interact with one another. These storms could produce equally strong downburst winds given the very steep low-level lapse rates. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33691315 34121249 34261196 33691113 32591069 32201078 32071112 32211176 33691315 Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern portion of the eastern
Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system will be possible during the next several
days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven