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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas through this evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Widespread convection is ongoing in multiple meridional bands east of a broad upper cyclone over the Southwest. Broken cloud cover extends well north into parts of central CO and UT. This should continue to limit diurnal heating and low-level lapse rates across the region. As a result, the thunder area has been trimmed on the northern end where limited buoyancy and weakening ascent should limit thunderstorm potential. Farther south and east, an isolated severe risk will remain possible with deeper convection ahead of the stalled front. Partial clearing and continued low-level upslope flow will support scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and evening. With buoyancy around 1000 J/kg and 40-50 kt of effective shear, a few supercell structures capable of hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible. See MCD #2149 for more detailed information. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...NM into Far West TX... Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day. The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens. This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High Plains today. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and hail. During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The combination of low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around 1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around 20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and isolated hail are still possible within this band. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle... The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile. Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle. But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk appears warranted. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle... The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile. Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle. But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk appears warranted. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle... The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile. Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle. But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk appears warranted. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle... The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile. Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle. But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk appears warranted. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle... The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile. Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle. But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk appears warranted. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle... The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile. Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle. But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk appears warranted. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle... The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile. Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle. But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk appears warranted. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific. The combination of the
remnants of Nadine and influences from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event are forecast to result in the formation of a new low
pressure system off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a couple of
days. Additional development is expected after that time, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle
part of next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more