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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... The upper low and attendant trough over the Four Corners region will progress northeast toward the central Plains on Sunday. Large-scale ascent will likely remain weak across the area until evening or overnight when the upper system ejects northeast. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region. Ongoing showers and cloudiness will likely preclude stronger destabilization through the day. However, a narrow corridor of modest instability and increasing vertical shear may develop across parts of eastern NM and vicinity. A couple of supercells producing hail, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible by early evening. Given the overall similar pattern and environment to that of the prior couple of days, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 3 update across eastern NM. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... The upper low and attendant trough over the Four Corners region will progress northeast toward the central Plains on Sunday. Large-scale ascent will likely remain weak across the area until evening or overnight when the upper system ejects northeast. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region. Ongoing showers and cloudiness will likely preclude stronger destabilization through the day. However, a narrow corridor of modest instability and increasing vertical shear may develop across parts of eastern NM and vicinity. A couple of supercells producing hail, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible by early evening. Given the overall similar pattern and environment to that of the prior couple of days, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 3 update across eastern NM. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... The upper low and attendant trough over the Four Corners region will progress northeast toward the central Plains on Sunday. Large-scale ascent will likely remain weak across the area until evening or overnight when the upper system ejects northeast. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region. Ongoing showers and cloudiness will likely preclude stronger destabilization through the day. However, a narrow corridor of modest instability and increasing vertical shear may develop across parts of eastern NM and vicinity. A couple of supercells producing hail, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible by early evening. Given the overall similar pattern and environment to that of the prior couple of days, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 3 update across eastern NM. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... The upper low and attendant trough over the Four Corners region will progress northeast toward the central Plains on Sunday. Large-scale ascent will likely remain weak across the area until evening or overnight when the upper system ejects northeast. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region. Ongoing showers and cloudiness will likely preclude stronger destabilization through the day. However, a narrow corridor of modest instability and increasing vertical shear may develop across parts of eastern NM and vicinity. A couple of supercells producing hail, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible by early evening. Given the overall similar pattern and environment to that of the prior couple of days, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 3 update across eastern NM. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... The upper low and attendant trough over the Four Corners region will progress northeast toward the central Plains on Sunday. Large-scale ascent will likely remain weak across the area until evening or overnight when the upper system ejects northeast. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region. Ongoing showers and cloudiness will likely preclude stronger destabilization through the day. However, a narrow corridor of modest instability and increasing vertical shear may develop across parts of eastern NM and vicinity. A couple of supercells producing hail, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible by early evening. Given the overall similar pattern and environment to that of the prior couple of days, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 3 update across eastern NM. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... The upper low and attendant trough over the Four Corners region will progress northeast toward the central Plains on Sunday. Large-scale ascent will likely remain weak across the area until evening or overnight when the upper system ejects northeast. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region. Ongoing showers and cloudiness will likely preclude stronger destabilization through the day. However, a narrow corridor of modest instability and increasing vertical shear may develop across parts of eastern NM and vicinity. A couple of supercells producing hail, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible by early evening. Given the overall similar pattern and environment to that of the prior couple of days, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 3 update across eastern NM. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days well
offshore of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the
middle of next week as the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence, surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and become maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence, surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and become maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence, surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and become maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence, surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and become maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence, surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and become maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence, surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and become maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence, surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and become maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence, surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and become maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 10/18/2024 Read more