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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a threat for hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Rockies eastward into the southern High Plains. ...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains... An upper-level low will move southeastward across the Desert Southwest today, as warm advection takes place ahead of the system over the southern Plains. Low-level moisture will increase across eastern New Mexico and west Texas as a low-level jet remains in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of instability will develop across eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Saturday have 0-6km shear in the 40 to 45 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe gusts. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern New Mexico also have gradually veering winds with height below 700 mb and some speed shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity from 250 to 300 m2/s2. This may be enough for one or two tornadoes with any discrete supercell that can persist into the early evening, when the low-level jet will be stronger. An isolated severe threat may also develop as a line of storms moves across parts of the southern High Plains during the mid to late evening. ..Broyles/Moore.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a threat for hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Rockies eastward into the southern High Plains. ...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains... An upper-level low will move southeastward across the Desert Southwest today, as warm advection takes place ahead of the system over the southern Plains. Low-level moisture will increase across eastern New Mexico and west Texas as a low-level jet remains in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of instability will develop across eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Saturday have 0-6km shear in the 40 to 45 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe gusts. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern New Mexico also have gradually veering winds with height below 700 mb and some speed shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity from 250 to 300 m2/s2. This may be enough for one or two tornadoes with any discrete supercell that can persist into the early evening, when the low-level jet will be stronger. An isolated severe threat may also develop as a line of storms moves across parts of the southern High Plains during the mid to late evening. ..Broyles/Moore.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a threat for hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Rockies eastward into the southern High Plains. ...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains... An upper-level low will move southeastward across the Desert Southwest today, as warm advection takes place ahead of the system over the southern Plains. Low-level moisture will increase across eastern New Mexico and west Texas as a low-level jet remains in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of instability will develop across eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Saturday have 0-6km shear in the 40 to 45 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe gusts. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern New Mexico also have gradually veering winds with height below 700 mb and some speed shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity from 250 to 300 m2/s2. This may be enough for one or two tornadoes with any discrete supercell that can persist into the early evening, when the low-level jet will be stronger. An isolated severe threat may also develop as a line of storms moves across parts of the southern High Plains during the mid to late evening. ..Broyles/Moore.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a threat for hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Rockies eastward into the southern High Plains. ...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains... An upper-level low will move southeastward across the Desert Southwest today, as warm advection takes place ahead of the system over the southern Plains. Low-level moisture will increase across eastern New Mexico and west Texas as a low-level jet remains in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of instability will develop across eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Saturday have 0-6km shear in the 40 to 45 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe gusts. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern New Mexico also have gradually veering winds with height below 700 mb and some speed shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity from 250 to 300 m2/s2. This may be enough for one or two tornadoes with any discrete supercell that can persist into the early evening, when the low-level jet will be stronger. An isolated severe threat may also develop as a line of storms moves across parts of the southern High Plains during the mid to late evening. ..Broyles/Moore.. 10/18/2024 Read more

662
ABPZ20 KNHC 180501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle part of
next week well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during
the middle to latter portion of next week as the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight across parts of the Intermountain West and southern to central Rockies, but no severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. tonight, as an upper-level trough and an associated low moves into the Desert Southwest. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this evening into tonight ahead of the trough from parts of the intermountain West into the southern and central Rockies. No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United States tonight. ..Broyles.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight across parts of the Intermountain West and southern to central Rockies, but no severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. tonight, as an upper-level trough and an associated low moves into the Desert Southwest. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this evening into tonight ahead of the trough from parts of the intermountain West into the southern and central Rockies. No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United States tonight. ..Broyles.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight across parts of the Intermountain West and southern to central Rockies, but no severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. tonight, as an upper-level trough and an associated low moves into the Desert Southwest. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this evening into tonight ahead of the trough from parts of the intermountain West into the southern and central Rockies. No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United States tonight. ..Broyles.. 10/18/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172305
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form during the middle part
of next week well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Thereafter,
gradual development is possible as the system moves westward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 17 22:11:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 17 22:11:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z On the backside of a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region, moderate deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA early on Day 3/Saturday. This mid/upper-level support, combined with a tight pressure gradient, will yield a continuation of dry/breezy offshore flow -- favoring elevated to locally critical conditions into early Day 3/Saturday. Thereafter, deep-layer winds and the pressure gradient will both weaken across southern CA, though dry conditions will continue. The closed midlevel low/trough will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z On the backside of a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region, moderate deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA early on Day 3/Saturday. This mid/upper-level support, combined with a tight pressure gradient, will yield a continuation of dry/breezy offshore flow -- favoring elevated to locally critical conditions into early Day 3/Saturday. Thereafter, deep-layer winds and the pressure gradient will both weaken across southern CA, though dry conditions will continue. The closed midlevel low/trough will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z On the backside of a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region, moderate deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA early on Day 3/Saturday. This mid/upper-level support, combined with a tight pressure gradient, will yield a continuation of dry/breezy offshore flow -- favoring elevated to locally critical conditions into early Day 3/Saturday. Thereafter, deep-layer winds and the pressure gradient will both weaken across southern CA, though dry conditions will continue. The closed midlevel low/trough will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z On the backside of a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region, moderate deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA early on Day 3/Saturday. This mid/upper-level support, combined with a tight pressure gradient, will yield a continuation of dry/breezy offshore flow -- favoring elevated to locally critical conditions into early Day 3/Saturday. Thereafter, deep-layer winds and the pressure gradient will both weaken across southern CA, though dry conditions will continue. The closed midlevel low/trough will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z On the backside of a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region, moderate deep-layer northerly flow will persist across southern CA early on Day 3/Saturday. This mid/upper-level support, combined with a tight pressure gradient, will yield a continuation of dry/breezy offshore flow -- favoring elevated to locally critical conditions into early Day 3/Saturday. Thereafter, deep-layer winds and the pressure gradient will both weaken across southern CA, though dry conditions will continue. The closed midlevel low/trough will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA...LOS ANGELES...SAN BERNARDINO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A Critical area was added over portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties in southern California. The latest high-resolution guidance consensus lends increased confidence in the overlap of strong offshore winds (gusts ranging from 45 to 55 mph) and single-digit to lower-teens RH on Friday morning/afternoon, and potentially again during the early morning hours on Saturday. The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH are expected over the typical wind-prone valleys/mountains (e.g., San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Ana Mountains and foothills). Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fuels are supportive of large-fire spread, warranting the upgrade to Critical. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA...LOS ANGELES...SAN BERNARDINO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A Critical area was added over portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties in southern California. The latest high-resolution guidance consensus lends increased confidence in the overlap of strong offshore winds (gusts ranging from 45 to 55 mph) and single-digit to lower-teens RH on Friday morning/afternoon, and potentially again during the early morning hours on Saturday. The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH are expected over the typical wind-prone valleys/mountains (e.g., San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Ana Mountains and foothills). Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fuels are supportive of large-fire spread, warranting the upgrade to Critical. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA...LOS ANGELES...SAN BERNARDINO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A Critical area was added over portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties in southern California. The latest high-resolution guidance consensus lends increased confidence in the overlap of strong offshore winds (gusts ranging from 45 to 55 mph) and single-digit to lower-teens RH on Friday morning/afternoon, and potentially again during the early morning hours on Saturday. The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH are expected over the typical wind-prone valleys/mountains (e.g., San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Ana Mountains and foothills). Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fuels are supportive of large-fire spread, warranting the upgrade to Critical. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VENTURA...LOS ANGELES...SAN BERNARDINO...AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A Critical area was added over portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties in southern California. The latest high-resolution guidance consensus lends increased confidence in the overlap of strong offshore winds (gusts ranging from 45 to 55 mph) and single-digit to lower-teens RH on Friday morning/afternoon, and potentially again during the early morning hours on Saturday. The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH are expected over the typical wind-prone valleys/mountains (e.g., San Gabriel, Santa Monica, and Santa Ana Mountains and foothills). Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fuels are supportive of large-fire spread, warranting the upgrade to Critical. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more