Aggregator

Rain from Hurricane Helene came too late to salvage the soybeans. Many of the pods produced no seeds. A Meade County farmer expected his soybean yield to be halved. The size of corn ears varies, and the kernels were small. Corn yield will be reduced also. Cattle have been eating hay that would typically not be fed until the end of November. WAVE-TV NBC 3 Louisville (Ky.), Oct 4, 2024

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

778
ABPZ20 KNHC 151713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the northern portion of the Elevated area was trimmed slightly, where weaker winds are expected compared to areas farther south. Over the TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, the combination of strong northeasterly surface winds and 20-25 percent RH will favor a couple hours of elevated conditions into this evening, and the Elevated area was expanded to account for this. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the northern portion of the Elevated area was trimmed slightly, where weaker winds are expected compared to areas farther south. Over the TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, the combination of strong northeasterly surface winds and 20-25 percent RH will favor a couple hours of elevated conditions into this evening, and the Elevated area was expanded to account for this. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the northern portion of the Elevated area was trimmed slightly, where weaker winds are expected compared to areas farther south. Over the TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, the combination of strong northeasterly surface winds and 20-25 percent RH will favor a couple hours of elevated conditions into this evening, and the Elevated area was expanded to account for this. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the northern portion of the Elevated area was trimmed slightly, where weaker winds are expected compared to areas farther south. Over the TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, the combination of strong northeasterly surface winds and 20-25 percent RH will favor a couple hours of elevated conditions into this evening, and the Elevated area was expanded to account for this. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the northern portion of the Elevated area was trimmed slightly, where weaker winds are expected compared to areas farther south. Over the TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, the combination of strong northeasterly surface winds and 20-25 percent RH will favor a couple hours of elevated conditions into this evening, and the Elevated area was expanded to account for this. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the northern portion of the Elevated area was trimmed slightly, where weaker winds are expected compared to areas farther south. Over the TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, the combination of strong northeasterly surface winds and 20-25 percent RH will favor a couple hours of elevated conditions into this evening, and the Elevated area was expanded to account for this. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the northern portion of the Elevated area was trimmed slightly, where weaker winds are expected compared to areas farther south. Over the TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, the combination of strong northeasterly surface winds and 20-25 percent RH will favor a couple hours of elevated conditions into this evening, and the Elevated area was expanded to account for this. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/15/2024 Read more