Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/15/2024 Read more

Soybean yields in parts of Wisconsin were lower due to lack of rain and pods not filling out completely. Farmers were harvesting at lower moisture levels due to dry conditions, which is affecting yields. Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), Oct 11, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS, characterized by an elongated cyclone over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a primary center initially over the lower St. Lawrence River region. The associated 500-mb low should drift erratically near its present location for most of today, then move northeastward toward the easternmost extension of QC overnight. A strong, basal trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Lower Great Lakes and southern Upper Great Lakes region, westward across the upper Mississippi Valley. This trough will pivot southeastward through the period, then by 12Z tomorrow, extend from offshore of New England across VA, the western Carolinas, northern GA, to central MS and the Arklatex region. Associated cold air aloft, steep low/middle-level lapse rates (aided by boundary-layer flow off the relatively warm lakes) and weak moisture will foster isolated thunderstorm potential south of portions of Lakes Erie and Michigan today. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have persisted all night in a residual, quasistationary, convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across the Bahamas and southern/western Straits of FL. This thunder potential should persist episodically through the period, with some inland development possible this afternoon across the Everglades and perhaps adjoining southern parts of metro South FL. A stronger boundary, moving southward through northern/central FL as a cold front, may support isolated thunder near that part of the FL East Coast today, amid modest moisture/lift. In the Four Corners region, isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as heating/mixing reduce generally 30s F surface dewpoints into the 20s, but still just enough moisture to support weak (generally less than 200 J/kg) peak MLCAPE. ..Edwards.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS, characterized by an elongated cyclone over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a primary center initially over the lower St. Lawrence River region. The associated 500-mb low should drift erratically near its present location for most of today, then move northeastward toward the easternmost extension of QC overnight. A strong, basal trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Lower Great Lakes and southern Upper Great Lakes region, westward across the upper Mississippi Valley. This trough will pivot southeastward through the period, then by 12Z tomorrow, extend from offshore of New England across VA, the western Carolinas, northern GA, to central MS and the Arklatex region. Associated cold air aloft, steep low/middle-level lapse rates (aided by boundary-layer flow off the relatively warm lakes) and weak moisture will foster isolated thunderstorm potential south of portions of Lakes Erie and Michigan today. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have persisted all night in a residual, quasistationary, convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across the Bahamas and southern/western Straits of FL. This thunder potential should persist episodically through the period, with some inland development possible this afternoon across the Everglades and perhaps adjoining southern parts of metro South FL. A stronger boundary, moving southward through northern/central FL as a cold front, may support isolated thunder near that part of the FL East Coast today, amid modest moisture/lift. In the Four Corners region, isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as heating/mixing reduce generally 30s F surface dewpoints into the 20s, but still just enough moisture to support weak (generally less than 200 J/kg) peak MLCAPE. ..Edwards.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS, characterized by an elongated cyclone over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a primary center initially over the lower St. Lawrence River region. The associated 500-mb low should drift erratically near its present location for most of today, then move northeastward toward the easternmost extension of QC overnight. A strong, basal trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Lower Great Lakes and southern Upper Great Lakes region, westward across the upper Mississippi Valley. This trough will pivot southeastward through the period, then by 12Z tomorrow, extend from offshore of New England across VA, the western Carolinas, northern GA, to central MS and the Arklatex region. Associated cold air aloft, steep low/middle-level lapse rates (aided by boundary-layer flow off the relatively warm lakes) and weak moisture will foster isolated thunderstorm potential south of portions of Lakes Erie and Michigan today. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have persisted all night in a residual, quasistationary, convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across the Bahamas and southern/western Straits of FL. This thunder potential should persist episodically through the period, with some inland development possible this afternoon across the Everglades and perhaps adjoining southern parts of metro South FL. A stronger boundary, moving southward through northern/central FL as a cold front, may support isolated thunder near that part of the FL East Coast today, amid modest moisture/lift. In the Four Corners region, isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as heating/mixing reduce generally 30s F surface dewpoints into the 20s, but still just enough moisture to support weak (generally less than 200 J/kg) peak MLCAPE. ..Edwards.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS, characterized by an elongated cyclone over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a primary center initially over the lower St. Lawrence River region. The associated 500-mb low should drift erratically near its present location for most of today, then move northeastward toward the easternmost extension of QC overnight. A strong, basal trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Lower Great Lakes and southern Upper Great Lakes region, westward across the upper Mississippi Valley. This trough will pivot southeastward through the period, then by 12Z tomorrow, extend from offshore of New England across VA, the western Carolinas, northern GA, to central MS and the Arklatex region. Associated cold air aloft, steep low/middle-level lapse rates (aided by boundary-layer flow off the relatively warm lakes) and weak moisture will foster isolated thunderstorm potential south of portions of Lakes Erie and Michigan today. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have persisted all night in a residual, quasistationary, convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across the Bahamas and southern/western Straits of FL. This thunder potential should persist episodically through the period, with some inland development possible this afternoon across the Everglades and perhaps adjoining southern parts of metro South FL. A stronger boundary, moving southward through northern/central FL as a cold front, may support isolated thunder near that part of the FL East Coast today, amid modest moisture/lift. In the Four Corners region, isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as heating/mixing reduce generally 30s F surface dewpoints into the 20s, but still just enough moisture to support weak (generally less than 200 J/kg) peak MLCAPE. ..Edwards.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS, characterized by an elongated cyclone over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a primary center initially over the lower St. Lawrence River region. The associated 500-mb low should drift erratically near its present location for most of today, then move northeastward toward the easternmost extension of QC overnight. A strong, basal trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Lower Great Lakes and southern Upper Great Lakes region, westward across the upper Mississippi Valley. This trough will pivot southeastward through the period, then by 12Z tomorrow, extend from offshore of New England across VA, the western Carolinas, northern GA, to central MS and the Arklatex region. Associated cold air aloft, steep low/middle-level lapse rates (aided by boundary-layer flow off the relatively warm lakes) and weak moisture will foster isolated thunderstorm potential south of portions of Lakes Erie and Michigan today. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have persisted all night in a residual, quasistationary, convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across the Bahamas and southern/western Straits of FL. This thunder potential should persist episodically through the period, with some inland development possible this afternoon across the Everglades and perhaps adjoining southern parts of metro South FL. A stronger boundary, moving southward through northern/central FL as a cold front, may support isolated thunder near that part of the FL East Coast today, amid modest moisture/lift. In the Four Corners region, isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as heating/mixing reduce generally 30s F surface dewpoints into the 20s, but still just enough moisture to support weak (generally less than 200 J/kg) peak MLCAPE. ..Edwards.. 10/15/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday. It appears probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging passes by to the north, near the western through central Canadian/U.S. border area. Sunday into Monday, models suggest that it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow, transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the subtropics. Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. And low-level moisture return in the wake of weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast region may remain modest to weak. While modestly steep lapse rates may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears generally low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday. It appears probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging passes by to the north, near the western through central Canadian/U.S. border area. Sunday into Monday, models suggest that it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow, transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the subtropics. Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. And low-level moisture return in the wake of weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast region may remain modest to weak. While modestly steep lapse rates may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears generally low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday. It appears probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging passes by to the north, near the western through central Canadian/U.S. border area. Sunday into Monday, models suggest that it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow, transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the subtropics. Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. And low-level moisture return in the wake of weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast region may remain modest to weak. While modestly steep lapse rates may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears generally low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday. It appears probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging passes by to the north, near the western through central Canadian/U.S. border area. Sunday into Monday, models suggest that it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow, transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the subtropics. Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. And low-level moisture return in the wake of weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast region may remain modest to weak. While modestly steep lapse rates may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears generally low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday. It appears probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging passes by to the north, near the western through central Canadian/U.S. border area. Sunday into Monday, models suggest that it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow, transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the subtropics. Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. And low-level moisture return in the wake of weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast region may remain modest to weak. While modestly steep lapse rates may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears generally low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS.... ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS.... ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more