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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough initially covering the eastern CONUS is forecast to move eastward on Wednesday, as an upper-level ridge builds into parts of the central/southern Great Plains and Midwest. A mid/upper-level trough over much of the West is forecast to gradually amplify through the period, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse the region. At the surface, a cold front will continue moving southward across the central/northern Gulf of Mexico into parts of south FL and Deep South TX. In the wake of the front, an expansive surface ridge will inhibit low-level moisture return, with instability remaining very limited to nil across most of the CONUS. Across Deep South TX, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, with relatively rich moisture expected to be in place prior to the frontal passage. While moderate buoyancy may support a strong storm or two within this regime, generally weak deep-layer flow/shear is expected to limit organized severe potential. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near and north of the Four Corners region, as a weak midlevel low initially over AZ weakens and moves northeastward within broader cyclonic flow. Cold temperatures aloft will support weak convection with potential for sporadic lightning flashes across parts of western WA/OR. Some lightning potential cannot be ruled out from northeast CA/northern NV into the interior Northwest, though confidence in more than very isolated flashes remains low at this time. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough initially covering the eastern CONUS is forecast to move eastward on Wednesday, as an upper-level ridge builds into parts of the central/southern Great Plains and Midwest. A mid/upper-level trough over much of the West is forecast to gradually amplify through the period, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse the region. At the surface, a cold front will continue moving southward across the central/northern Gulf of Mexico into parts of south FL and Deep South TX. In the wake of the front, an expansive surface ridge will inhibit low-level moisture return, with instability remaining very limited to nil across most of the CONUS. Across Deep South TX, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, with relatively rich moisture expected to be in place prior to the frontal passage. While moderate buoyancy may support a strong storm or two within this regime, generally weak deep-layer flow/shear is expected to limit organized severe potential. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near and north of the Four Corners region, as a weak midlevel low initially over AZ weakens and moves northeastward within broader cyclonic flow. Cold temperatures aloft will support weak convection with potential for sporadic lightning flashes across parts of western WA/OR. Some lightning potential cannot be ruled out from northeast CA/northern NV into the interior Northwest, though confidence in more than very isolated flashes remains low at this time. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more