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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern portion of the eastern
Pacific is producing limited and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system will be possible
during the next next several days while it moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PA...NJ...AND THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for damaging gusts tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby. Greatest severe potential is expected from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and the northern Delmarva Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over central Ontario before shifting gradually throughout the day. Moderate to strong flow is anticipated throughout the base of this cyclone, spreading from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes and OH Valley and into the Northeast as a shortwave trough progresses from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes into southwest Quebec. Overall evolution of this cyclone and associated shortwave trough will interact with Tropical Cyclone Debby, which may be in its extratropical phase by early Friday morning. This interaction will result in an accelerated northeastward progression of Debby, taking it from its initial position near the WV/MD/VA border vicinity quickly northeastward through the Northeast and into the Upper St. Lawrence Valley by early Saturday. Farther west, dampened upper ridging will persist across the Southwest and southern Plains. A convectively generated, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern periphery of this ridging, from eastern CO into the Mid-South. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough may follow in the wake of the first, reaching the central KS/western OK by early Saturday morning. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Robust low to mid-level flow is forecast to extend throughout the eastern periphery of TC Debby, from eastern NC into southern ME, early Friday morning. This strong flow will persist throughout the day, gradually shifting northeastward with the parent system. The strongest low/mid-level flow (i.e. 50+ kt at 850mb) will remain in close proximity to the cyclone, spreading from far northeast VA/central MD early Friday into eastern PA/NJ by the afternoon and into southern New England by late Friday/early Saturday Widespread cloud cover and limited heating is anticipated across the region, but deep convection still appears possible amid the strong warm-air advection. Buoyancy will be limited, likely tempering the overall updraft strength within this convection. However, ample moisture will be in place, which should combine with the strong low-level shear to support some organized storm structures. Damaging gusts will be the greatest severe threat, but embedded circulations could be strong enough to produce brief tornadoes as well. Highest severe potential is expected from eastern PA to the I-95 corridor in NJ, where the timing of the system allows for the best overlap between the buoyancy/daytime heating and the low-level shear. Strong forcing could still result in some damaging gusts farther north into NY and western New England, despite very limited buoyancy. Buoyancy will be greater farther south across eastern VA/NC, but shear will be weaker, likely keeping the severe threat isolated. ...Northeast NM/Southeast CO into TX Panhandle and Western OK... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the TX Panhandle vicinity early Friday, with some potential that this activity will persist downstream into western OK throughout the day. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe threat low. Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday afternoon, beginning in the Raton Mesa vicinity and then continuing eastward/southeastward through the evening and potentially overnight, maintained by a moderate low-level jet across west TX. As with the early morning storms, limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe threat low. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PA...NJ...AND THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for damaging gusts tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby. Greatest severe potential is expected from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and the northern Delmarva Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over central Ontario before shifting gradually throughout the day. Moderate to strong flow is anticipated throughout the base of this cyclone, spreading from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes and OH Valley and into the Northeast as a shortwave trough progresses from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes into southwest Quebec. Overall evolution of this cyclone and associated shortwave trough will interact with Tropical Cyclone Debby, which may be in its extratropical phase by early Friday morning. This interaction will result in an accelerated northeastward progression of Debby, taking it from its initial position near the WV/MD/VA border vicinity quickly northeastward through the Northeast and into the Upper St. Lawrence Valley by early Saturday. Farther west, dampened upper ridging will persist across the Southwest and southern Plains. A convectively generated, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern periphery of this ridging, from eastern CO into the Mid-South. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough may follow in the wake of the first, reaching the central KS/western OK by early Saturday morning. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Robust low to mid-level flow is forecast to extend throughout the eastern periphery of TC Debby, from eastern NC into southern ME, early Friday morning. This strong flow will persist throughout the day, gradually shifting northeastward with the parent system. The strongest low/mid-level flow (i.e. 50+ kt at 850mb) will remain in close proximity to the cyclone, spreading from far northeast VA/central MD early Friday into eastern PA/NJ by the afternoon and into southern New England by late Friday/early Saturday Widespread cloud cover and limited heating is anticipated across the region, but deep convection still appears possible amid the strong warm-air advection. Buoyancy will be limited, likely tempering the overall updraft strength within this convection. However, ample moisture will be in place, which should combine with the strong low-level shear to support some organized storm structures. Damaging gusts will be the greatest severe threat, but embedded circulations could be strong enough to produce brief tornadoes as well. Highest severe potential is expected from eastern PA to the I-95 corridor in NJ, where the timing of the system allows for the best overlap between the buoyancy/daytime heating and the low-level shear. Strong forcing could still result in some damaging gusts farther north into NY and western New England, despite very limited buoyancy. Buoyancy will be greater farther south across eastern VA/NC, but shear will be weaker, likely keeping the severe threat isolated. ...Northeast NM/Southeast CO into TX Panhandle and Western OK... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the TX Panhandle vicinity early Friday, with some potential that this activity will persist downstream into western OK throughout the day. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe threat low. Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday afternoon, beginning in the Raton Mesa vicinity and then continuing eastward/southeastward through the evening and potentially overnight, maintained by a moderate low-level jet across west TX. As with the early morning storms, limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe threat low. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 Read more