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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region. Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners may support a few lightning flashes as well. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region. Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners may support a few lightning flashes as well. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region. Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners may support a few lightning flashes as well. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region. Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners may support a few lightning flashes as well. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ..Moore.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ..Moore.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ..Moore.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ..Moore.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ..Moore.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ..Moore.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ..Moore.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region. Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners may support a few lightning flashes as well. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20Z Update... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across far southern AZ Monday afternoon. However, these confined conditions will overlap mostly desert landscape (just west of the desert grasslands), precluding the need for an Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions are expected across far southern Arizona and portions of eastern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance does not suggest significant vulnerability to wildfire ignition and spread at this time, precluding highlights. Some forecast guidance, mainly the GFS, suggest dry/windy southerly flow across western Texas on Monday, but remains an outlier relative to other models. Given the uncertainty and lack of Elevated/Critical conditions over receptive fuels, no fire-weather highlights are forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20Z Update... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across far southern AZ Monday afternoon. However, these confined conditions will overlap mostly desert landscape (just west of the desert grasslands), precluding the need for an Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions are expected across far southern Arizona and portions of eastern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance does not suggest significant vulnerability to wildfire ignition and spread at this time, precluding highlights. Some forecast guidance, mainly the GFS, suggest dry/windy southerly flow across western Texas on Monday, but remains an outlier relative to other models. Given the uncertainty and lack of Elevated/Critical conditions over receptive fuels, no fire-weather highlights are forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20Z Update... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across far southern AZ Monday afternoon. However, these confined conditions will overlap mostly desert landscape (just west of the desert grasslands), precluding the need for an Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions are expected across far southern Arizona and portions of eastern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance does not suggest significant vulnerability to wildfire ignition and spread at this time, precluding highlights. Some forecast guidance, mainly the GFS, suggest dry/windy southerly flow across western Texas on Monday, but remains an outlier relative to other models. Given the uncertainty and lack of Elevated/Critical conditions over receptive fuels, no fire-weather highlights are forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20Z Update... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across far southern AZ Monday afternoon. However, these confined conditions will overlap mostly desert landscape (just west of the desert grasslands), precluding the need for an Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions are expected across far southern Arizona and portions of eastern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance does not suggest significant vulnerability to wildfire ignition and spread at this time, precluding highlights. Some forecast guidance, mainly the GFS, suggest dry/windy southerly flow across western Texas on Monday, but remains an outlier relative to other models. Given the uncertainty and lack of Elevated/Critical conditions over receptive fuels, no fire-weather highlights are forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20Z Update... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across far southern AZ Monday afternoon. However, these confined conditions will overlap mostly desert landscape (just west of the desert grasslands), precluding the need for an Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions are expected across far southern Arizona and portions of eastern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance does not suggest significant vulnerability to wildfire ignition and spread at this time, precluding highlights. Some forecast guidance, mainly the GFS, suggest dry/windy southerly flow across western Texas on Monday, but remains an outlier relative to other models. Given the uncertainty and lack of Elevated/Critical conditions over receptive fuels, no fire-weather highlights are forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20Z Update... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across far southern AZ Monday afternoon. However, these confined conditions will overlap mostly desert landscape (just west of the desert grasslands), precluding the need for an Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions are expected across far southern Arizona and portions of eastern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance does not suggest significant vulnerability to wildfire ignition and spread at this time, precluding highlights. Some forecast guidance, mainly the GFS, suggest dry/windy southerly flow across western Texas on Monday, but remains an outlier relative to other models. Given the uncertainty and lack of Elevated/Critical conditions over receptive fuels, no fire-weather highlights are forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20Z Update... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across far southern AZ Monday afternoon. However, these confined conditions will overlap mostly desert landscape (just west of the desert grasslands), precluding the need for an Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions are expected across far southern Arizona and portions of eastern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance does not suggest significant vulnerability to wildfire ignition and spread at this time, precluding highlights. Some forecast guidance, mainly the GFS, suggest dry/windy southerly flow across western Texas on Monday, but remains an outlier relative to other models. Given the uncertainty and lack of Elevated/Critical conditions over receptive fuels, no fire-weather highlights are forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20Z Update... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across far southern AZ Monday afternoon. However, these confined conditions will overlap mostly desert landscape (just west of the desert grasslands), precluding the need for an Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions are expected across far southern Arizona and portions of eastern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance does not suggest significant vulnerability to wildfire ignition and spread at this time, precluding highlights. Some forecast guidance, mainly the GFS, suggest dry/windy southerly flow across western Texas on Monday, but remains an outlier relative to other models. Given the uncertainty and lack of Elevated/Critical conditions over receptive fuels, no fire-weather highlights are forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more