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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this morning and afternoon across parts of New England as an upper trough continues eastward. Other low-topped convection will be possible today beneath the upper trough over portions of the Great Lakes, with seasonably warm lake temperatures and cold mid-level temperatures supporting modest buoyancy and occasional lightning flashes. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of UT and northern AZ into western CO, as a weak shortwave trough moves slowly southeastward over the Great Basin and Southwest. Weak instability across all these regions should greatly limit potential for severe thunderstorms through the period. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this morning and afternoon across parts of New England as an upper trough continues eastward. Other low-topped convection will be possible today beneath the upper trough over portions of the Great Lakes, with seasonably warm lake temperatures and cold mid-level temperatures supporting modest buoyancy and occasional lightning flashes. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of UT and northern AZ into western CO, as a weak shortwave trough moves slowly southeastward over the Great Basin and Southwest. Weak instability across all these regions should greatly limit potential for severe thunderstorms through the period. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this morning and afternoon across parts of New England as an upper trough continues eastward. Other low-topped convection will be possible today beneath the upper trough over portions of the Great Lakes, with seasonably warm lake temperatures and cold mid-level temperatures supporting modest buoyancy and occasional lightning flashes. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of UT and northern AZ into western CO, as a weak shortwave trough moves slowly southeastward over the Great Basin and Southwest. Weak instability across all these regions should greatly limit potential for severe thunderstorms through the period. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this morning and afternoon across parts of New England as an upper trough continues eastward. Other low-topped convection will be possible today beneath the upper trough over portions of the Great Lakes, with seasonably warm lake temperatures and cold mid-level temperatures supporting modest buoyancy and occasional lightning flashes. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of UT and northern AZ into western CO, as a weak shortwave trough moves slowly southeastward over the Great Basin and Southwest. Weak instability across all these regions should greatly limit potential for severe thunderstorms through the period. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/14/2024 Read more