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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly this evening, across the Four Corners States ahead of a weak mid-level trough drifting southeast over the southern Great Basin. Lake-effect showers and embedded thunderstorms should remain most prevalent over Lake MI, but will also be possible south of Lake Huron and Erie. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sampled by the 00Z GRB/DTX soundings, will slowly slide south atop the relatively warm waters and support weak buoyancy for sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly this evening, across the Four Corners States ahead of a weak mid-level trough drifting southeast over the southern Great Basin. Lake-effect showers and embedded thunderstorms should remain most prevalent over Lake MI, but will also be possible south of Lake Huron and Erie. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sampled by the 00Z GRB/DTX soundings, will slowly slide south atop the relatively warm waters and support weak buoyancy for sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly this evening, across the Four Corners States ahead of a weak mid-level trough drifting southeast over the southern Great Basin. Lake-effect showers and embedded thunderstorms should remain most prevalent over Lake MI, but will also be possible south of Lake Huron and Erie. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sampled by the 00Z GRB/DTX soundings, will slowly slide south atop the relatively warm waters and support weak buoyancy for sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 10/15/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 14 23:59:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 14 23:59:01 UTC 2024.

411
ABPZ20 KNHC 142309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday... On Day 3/Wednesday, an expansive surface anticyclone will move eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a lee trough will deepen over the northern/central High Plains -- in response to strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and strong/gusty southerly surface winds across much of the northern/central High Plains -- aided by boundary-layer mixing into a strong low-level jet. Limited low-level moisture return will favor near-critical RH, and given very dry fuels, elevated to critical conditions are expected. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest over south-central SD and central NE, where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH is forecast amid the warmest surface temperatures. Farther west, the strong southwesterly midlevel winds accompanying the large-scale trough will overspread a relatively dry air mass over the Great Basin. This will promote elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level jet will continue to promote strong/gusty southerly surface winds over a large portion of the Plains into the MS Valley on Day 4/Thursday. While elevated to near-critical conditions are expected, confidence in critical conditions is slightly lower than Day 3/Wednesday owing to uncertainty in RH reductions. On the backside of the large-scale trough, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread portions of central CA on Day 5/Friday. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns, and elevated to critical conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday... On Day 3/Wednesday, an expansive surface anticyclone will move eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a lee trough will deepen over the northern/central High Plains -- in response to strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and strong/gusty southerly surface winds across much of the northern/central High Plains -- aided by boundary-layer mixing into a strong low-level jet. Limited low-level moisture return will favor near-critical RH, and given very dry fuels, elevated to critical conditions are expected. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest over south-central SD and central NE, where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH is forecast amid the warmest surface temperatures. Farther west, the strong southwesterly midlevel winds accompanying the large-scale trough will overspread a relatively dry air mass over the Great Basin. This will promote elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level jet will continue to promote strong/gusty southerly surface winds over a large portion of the Plains into the MS Valley on Day 4/Thursday. While elevated to near-critical conditions are expected, confidence in critical conditions is slightly lower than Day 3/Wednesday owing to uncertainty in RH reductions. On the backside of the large-scale trough, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread portions of central CA on Day 5/Friday. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns, and elevated to critical conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday... On Day 3/Wednesday, an expansive surface anticyclone will move eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a lee trough will deepen over the northern/central High Plains -- in response to strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and strong/gusty southerly surface winds across much of the northern/central High Plains -- aided by boundary-layer mixing into a strong low-level jet. Limited low-level moisture return will favor near-critical RH, and given very dry fuels, elevated to critical conditions are expected. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest over south-central SD and central NE, where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH is forecast amid the warmest surface temperatures. Farther west, the strong southwesterly midlevel winds accompanying the large-scale trough will overspread a relatively dry air mass over the Great Basin. This will promote elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level jet will continue to promote strong/gusty southerly surface winds over a large portion of the Plains into the MS Valley on Day 4/Thursday. While elevated to near-critical conditions are expected, confidence in critical conditions is slightly lower than Day 3/Wednesday owing to uncertainty in RH reductions. On the backside of the large-scale trough, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread portions of central CA on Day 5/Friday. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns, and elevated to critical conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday... On Day 3/Wednesday, an expansive surface anticyclone will move eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a lee trough will deepen over the northern/central High Plains -- in response to strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and strong/gusty southerly surface winds across much of the northern/central High Plains -- aided by boundary-layer mixing into a strong low-level jet. Limited low-level moisture return will favor near-critical RH, and given very dry fuels, elevated to critical conditions are expected. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest over south-central SD and central NE, where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH is forecast amid the warmest surface temperatures. Farther west, the strong southwesterly midlevel winds accompanying the large-scale trough will overspread a relatively dry air mass over the Great Basin. This will promote elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level jet will continue to promote strong/gusty southerly surface winds over a large portion of the Plains into the MS Valley on Day 4/Thursday. While elevated to near-critical conditions are expected, confidence in critical conditions is slightly lower than Day 3/Wednesday owing to uncertainty in RH reductions. On the backside of the large-scale trough, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread portions of central CA on Day 5/Friday. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns, and elevated to critical conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday... On Day 3/Wednesday, an expansive surface anticyclone will move eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a lee trough will deepen over the northern/central High Plains -- in response to strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and strong/gusty southerly surface winds across much of the northern/central High Plains -- aided by boundary-layer mixing into a strong low-level jet. Limited low-level moisture return will favor near-critical RH, and given very dry fuels, elevated to critical conditions are expected. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest over south-central SD and central NE, where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH is forecast amid the warmest surface temperatures. Farther west, the strong southwesterly midlevel winds accompanying the large-scale trough will overspread a relatively dry air mass over the Great Basin. This will promote elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level jet will continue to promote strong/gusty southerly surface winds over a large portion of the Plains into the MS Valley on Day 4/Thursday. While elevated to near-critical conditions are expected, confidence in critical conditions is slightly lower than Day 3/Wednesday owing to uncertainty in RH reductions. On the backside of the large-scale trough, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread portions of central CA on Day 5/Friday. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns, and elevated to critical conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday... On Day 3/Wednesday, an expansive surface anticyclone will move eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a lee trough will deepen over the northern/central High Plains -- in response to strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and strong/gusty southerly surface winds across much of the northern/central High Plains -- aided by boundary-layer mixing into a strong low-level jet. Limited low-level moisture return will favor near-critical RH, and given very dry fuels, elevated to critical conditions are expected. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest over south-central SD and central NE, where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH is forecast amid the warmest surface temperatures. Farther west, the strong southwesterly midlevel winds accompanying the large-scale trough will overspread a relatively dry air mass over the Great Basin. This will promote elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level jet will continue to promote strong/gusty southerly surface winds over a large portion of the Plains into the MS Valley on Day 4/Thursday. While elevated to near-critical conditions are expected, confidence in critical conditions is slightly lower than Day 3/Wednesday owing to uncertainty in RH reductions. On the backside of the large-scale trough, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread portions of central CA on Day 5/Friday. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns, and elevated to critical conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Dry, windy conditions have South Dakota firefighters reminding the public to be cautious with fires outdoors so harvest activities and the opening of pheasant season do not spark fires. KSFY-TV ABC 13 Sioux City (S.D.), Oct 13, 2024

The Wisconsin DNR reinstated burning permits by issuing a Special Fire Order in 13 Wisconsin counties due to prolonged drought conditions and the potential for elevated fire danger during the fall. The permit reinstatement began on Tuesday, Oct. 15, in designated DNR protection areas. The permit reinstatement applied to the following 13 extensive DNR protection area counties outside incorporated cities and villages: all of Columbia, Crawford, Green Lake, Marquette, Portage, Richland, Sauk, Waupaca, and Waushara counties, as well as in portions of Oconto, Dane, Grant, and Iowa counties. WSAW-TV CBS 7 Wausau (Wis.), Oct 14, 2024

Burning permits were not being issued in Wisconsin due to more than two-thirds of the counties in the state being in the high or very high danger categories. On Oct. 8, a wildfire burned 26 acres in a national forest in Oconto County. An Adams County wildfire recently charred 6.5 acres. The Sturgeon Bay Fire Department issued a burn ban. WLUK FOX 11 Green Bay (Wis.), Oct 11, 2024

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... The D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... The D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... The D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... The D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... The D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more