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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Residents and businesses in Gaithersburg and Rockville were urged to voluntarily conserve water because the area was part of the regional drought watch issued by the Drought Coordination Committee of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. The MoCo Show (Rockville, Md.), Aug 2, 2024

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-082240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075- 081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730- 735-740-760-800-810-830-082240- Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-082240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075- 081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730- 735-740-760-800-810-830-082240- Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-082240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075- 081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730- 735-740-760-800-810-830-082240- Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-082240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075- 081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730- 735-740-760-800-810-830-082240- Read more

WW 614 TORNADO NC VA CW 081645Z - 090000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Central and Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms embedded within the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to track northeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Richmond VA to 50 miles southeast of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 613... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1867 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 614... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1867 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 614... Valid 081912Z - 082115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...Brief tornado risk continues across portions of Tornado Watch 614. DISCUSSION...Recent radar loop shows little movement of the center of Tropical Storm Debby (still in the vicinity of the North Carolina/South Carolina border southeast of Charlotte, NC), while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm having become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. This intensification is likely related to modest heating through some cloud breaks, that has allowed weak destabilization/small increases in mixed-layer CAPE to occur. In tandem with this cellular increase, and given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed overall. The most active area in terms of low-level circulations has been in the vicinity of the northeastern North Carolina/southeastern Virginia border region, where rotating cells continue moving northwestward, along with occasional radar hints of potential/brief tornadoes. Overall, expect the situation to remain generally steady-state, with continued risk for brief tornadoes likely to persist over the next several hours. ..Goss.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 34517765 35407806 36367868 37207841 37507760 37297682 36597618 35287590 34257660 34517765 Read more

MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Southern Utah into western and central Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081921Z - 082115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV this afternoon/evening. Isolated damaging gusts are possible. Limited storm organization suggests a WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery showed initial thunderstorm development was ongoing over the higher terrain of southern UT and across central AZ. Linked to robust monsoonal moisture return and an MCV beneath an expansive western US ridge, additional storm development is likely through the afternoon hours. As remaining inhibition weakens, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support scattered high-based thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern UT and ahead of a weak MCV over central AZ. PWATs of 0.7-1 inch and relatively deep inverted-V profiles from area model soundings will favor strong downdrafts with some potential for damaging outflow winds as storms become established. However, area VADs show flow aloft is quite limited (generally less than 20 kt) beneath the ridge. Given the limited shear, a relatively disorganized multi-cell storm mode is expected to limit the severe risk. Given the limited organization potential a WW is unlikely at this time. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... LAT...LON 36931405 38611328 38801303 39171174 38921043 38511012 37671053 36511149 35871180 35261154 34271065 33840984 33250982 31601041 31711119 31821138 32121193 32641257 33731347 34721405 36931405 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 20:40:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 21:30:06 GMT

Some trees in the Lexington area were already turning from green to yellow. LEX 18 (Lexington, Ky.), Aug 2, 2024

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Emilia appears to be in its final stage as a tropical cyclone. Deep convection is limited to a few small clusters over the western semicircle as the system is being influenced by some easterly vertical wind shear. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in general agreement with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS, although this could be generous. Visible imagery indicates that the center appears to be located somewhat to the east of previous estimates. After some adjustments, the initial motion estimate is a little slower, or 290/12 kt. A mid-level ridge is expected to be maintained to the north of Emilia for the next few days. Based on this steering pattern, the cyclone should continue its generally west-northwestward heading for the next day or two followed by a more westward to west-southwestward movement within the shallow low-level flow. The NHC forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus guidance TVCE. Over the next day or two, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs cooler than 23 deg C in an environment of relatively dry air. This should cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low very soon as shown by the official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 21.6N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/1800Z 22.9N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0600Z 23.5N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0600Z 24.4N 133.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 24.5N 135.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 082039 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082039 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 123.8W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 123.8 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Emilia is likely to become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 21.6, -123.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082038 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.9N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.4N 133.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 123.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more