Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery this morning across the southern Great Lakes will strengthen as it accelerates toward the Northeast while the associated mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted. This will likely result in the surface low deepening as it moves up the northeast coast. Some elevated thunderstorms may develop along and behind the surface front/low as it moves northeast across eastern Maine and Cape Cod. Instability should be limited and thus, the severe weather threat should be minimal. Continued cold air advection across the Great Lakes will result in some lake effect convection. Some of this convection may deepen enough to produce lightning, especially during the evening. A few thunderstorms are possible in Utah, northern New Mexico, and western Colorado as an upper-low slowly drifts southeast today. Very weak instability should limit any severe weather potential with this activity. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery this morning across the southern Great Lakes will strengthen as it accelerates toward the Northeast while the associated mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted. This will likely result in the surface low deepening as it moves up the northeast coast. Some elevated thunderstorms may develop along and behind the surface front/low as it moves northeast across eastern Maine and Cape Cod. Instability should be limited and thus, the severe weather threat should be minimal. Continued cold air advection across the Great Lakes will result in some lake effect convection. Some of this convection may deepen enough to produce lightning, especially during the evening. A few thunderstorms are possible in Utah, northern New Mexico, and western Colorado as an upper-low slowly drifts southeast today. Very weak instability should limit any severe weather potential with this activity. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery this morning across the southern Great Lakes will strengthen as it accelerates toward the Northeast while the associated mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted. This will likely result in the surface low deepening as it moves up the northeast coast. Some elevated thunderstorms may develop along and behind the surface front/low as it moves northeast across eastern Maine and Cape Cod. Instability should be limited and thus, the severe weather threat should be minimal. Continued cold air advection across the Great Lakes will result in some lake effect convection. Some of this convection may deepen enough to produce lightning, especially during the evening. A few thunderstorms are possible in Utah, northern New Mexico, and western Colorado as an upper-low slowly drifts southeast today. Very weak instability should limit any severe weather potential with this activity. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible for a few more hours this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along a cold front from central Tennessee to central Pennsylvania. Most of these storms are clearly sub-severe, but a few stronger cells with MESH cores approaching 1 inch and weak rotating updrafts have been apparent over the last hour. The 00Z BNA RAOB showed and environment which supports some severe convection (1200 J/kg MLCAPE and 34 knots of effective shear). However, the boundary layer has cooled ahead of these storms and it will continue to cool through the evening while storms also move east of the best low-level moisture. Therefore, some threat for isolated severe storms may remain for the next 1 to 2 hours, but the overall threat should lessen within the next few hours as the boundary layer continues to cool and stabilize. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible for a few more hours this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along a cold front from central Tennessee to central Pennsylvania. Most of these storms are clearly sub-severe, but a few stronger cells with MESH cores approaching 1 inch and weak rotating updrafts have been apparent over the last hour. The 00Z BNA RAOB showed and environment which supports some severe convection (1200 J/kg MLCAPE and 34 knots of effective shear). However, the boundary layer has cooled ahead of these storms and it will continue to cool through the evening while storms also move east of the best low-level moisture. Therefore, some threat for isolated severe storms may remain for the next 1 to 2 hours, but the overall threat should lessen within the next few hours as the boundary layer continues to cool and stabilize. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible for a few more hours this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along a cold front from central Tennessee to central Pennsylvania. Most of these storms are clearly sub-severe, but a few stronger cells with MESH cores approaching 1 inch and weak rotating updrafts have been apparent over the last hour. The 00Z BNA RAOB showed and environment which supports some severe convection (1200 J/kg MLCAPE and 34 knots of effective shear). However, the boundary layer has cooled ahead of these storms and it will continue to cool through the evening while storms also move east of the best low-level moisture. Therefore, some threat for isolated severe storms may remain for the next 1 to 2 hours, but the overall threat should lessen within the next few hours as the boundary layer continues to cool and stabilize. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 13 23:01:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 13 23:01:01 UTC 2024.

MD 2146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA
Mesoscale Discussion 2146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132058Z - 132300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Despite relatively limited low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 50s F), modest diurnal heating has resulted in some destabilization this afternoon across parts of western/central PA, to the south of a differential heating zone/effective warm front across northern PA. Some deepening cumulus has been noted from extreme eastern OH into western PA, in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/confluence zone. A few developing showers in this region may mature into thunderstorms, as they move eastward and downstream MLCAPE increases to near 500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow is rather strong across the region, with 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. Despite the limited instability, this kinematic environment could support some storm organization if convection deepens, especially with any storms in the vicinity of the differential heating zone. Locally gusty/damaging winds and small hail could accompany any stronger cells/clusters within this regime. ..Dean/Hart.. 10/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 41317950 41617849 41607750 41407700 41237700 40987721 40627754 40477787 40347955 40677959 41317950 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to continue digging over the eastern CONUS D3/Tuesday. Another significant surge of colder air will accompany this feature, with a cold front making it as far south as the Gulf of Mexico by D4/Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient across KS/OK/TX on the fringe of this air mass Tuesday will support breezy northeast winds (similar to but stronger than today/Sunday). Farther west by mid week, a Pacific upper trough will move onshore as ridging shifts eastward over the Great Plains. Precipitation chances associated with this feature, including some lightning, are anticipated from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West D4/Wed-D5/Thur. A closed low is eventually expected over the Southwest by late this week into the weekend, while ridging replaces the trough over the eastern CONUS. ...D3/Tuesday Central and Southern Plains... Breezy northerly post-frontal winds will progress southwestward throughout the day from northern/central KS into northwestern TX, and portions of the eastern/southeastern TX panhandle. Although the overall relative humidity should remain just above critical thresholds, fuels remain highly receptive across most of this region. In addition, the latest model trends suggest higher wind speeds persisting across this region. As a result, a Critical 40-percent area has been introduced that covers most of KS and OK. ...D4/Wednesday Central and Southern Plains, and Great Basin... Increasing south winds will quickly return to most of the Plains as the upper trough begins to approach from the west. Confidence continues to increase with regards to relative humidity dropping to near or just above critical thresholds during the afternoon from western OK northward into northeastern WY and SD. If trends suggest even lower RH impacting this region, probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent forecasts. This may especially be true across portions of NE and southern SD, where breezy sustained winds should continue well into the evening hours. Farther west across portions of eastern NV and western UT, south-southwesterly sustained surface winds are expected to increase under the base of the mid-level trough. Fuels are not overly receptive here, but are still unseasonably dry. Mixing throughout the day should also result in at least near-critical relative humidity being reached. ...D5/Thursday Great Plains and portions of the Midwest... Breezy south winds will persist across this region preceding the upper trough. Relative humidity by this time remains somewhat questionable. However, considering D4/Wednesday's near critical to critical environment, a continued lack of rainfall/receptive fuels, and confidence in wind speeds reaching critical thresholds; a 40-percent Critical area has also been introduced here. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to continue digging over the eastern CONUS D3/Tuesday. Another significant surge of colder air will accompany this feature, with a cold front making it as far south as the Gulf of Mexico by D4/Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient across KS/OK/TX on the fringe of this air mass Tuesday will support breezy northeast winds (similar to but stronger than today/Sunday). Farther west by mid week, a Pacific upper trough will move onshore as ridging shifts eastward over the Great Plains. Precipitation chances associated with this feature, including some lightning, are anticipated from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West D4/Wed-D5/Thur. A closed low is eventually expected over the Southwest by late this week into the weekend, while ridging replaces the trough over the eastern CONUS. ...D3/Tuesday Central and Southern Plains... Breezy northerly post-frontal winds will progress southwestward throughout the day from northern/central KS into northwestern TX, and portions of the eastern/southeastern TX panhandle. Although the overall relative humidity should remain just above critical thresholds, fuels remain highly receptive across most of this region. In addition, the latest model trends suggest higher wind speeds persisting across this region. As a result, a Critical 40-percent area has been introduced that covers most of KS and OK. ...D4/Wednesday Central and Southern Plains, and Great Basin... Increasing south winds will quickly return to most of the Plains as the upper trough begins to approach from the west. Confidence continues to increase with regards to relative humidity dropping to near or just above critical thresholds during the afternoon from western OK northward into northeastern WY and SD. If trends suggest even lower RH impacting this region, probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent forecasts. This may especially be true across portions of NE and southern SD, where breezy sustained winds should continue well into the evening hours. Farther west across portions of eastern NV and western UT, south-southwesterly sustained surface winds are expected to increase under the base of the mid-level trough. Fuels are not overly receptive here, but are still unseasonably dry. Mixing throughout the day should also result in at least near-critical relative humidity being reached. ...D5/Thursday Great Plains and portions of the Midwest... Breezy south winds will persist across this region preceding the upper trough. Relative humidity by this time remains somewhat questionable. However, considering D4/Wednesday's near critical to critical environment, a continued lack of rainfall/receptive fuels, and confidence in wind speeds reaching critical thresholds; a 40-percent Critical area has also been introduced here. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to continue digging over the eastern CONUS D3/Tuesday. Another significant surge of colder air will accompany this feature, with a cold front making it as far south as the Gulf of Mexico by D4/Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient across KS/OK/TX on the fringe of this air mass Tuesday will support breezy northeast winds (similar to but stronger than today/Sunday). Farther west by mid week, a Pacific upper trough will move onshore as ridging shifts eastward over the Great Plains. Precipitation chances associated with this feature, including some lightning, are anticipated from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West D4/Wed-D5/Thur. A closed low is eventually expected over the Southwest by late this week into the weekend, while ridging replaces the trough over the eastern CONUS. ...D3/Tuesday Central and Southern Plains... Breezy northerly post-frontal winds will progress southwestward throughout the day from northern/central KS into northwestern TX, and portions of the eastern/southeastern TX panhandle. Although the overall relative humidity should remain just above critical thresholds, fuels remain highly receptive across most of this region. In addition, the latest model trends suggest higher wind speeds persisting across this region. As a result, a Critical 40-percent area has been introduced that covers most of KS and OK. ...D4/Wednesday Central and Southern Plains, and Great Basin... Increasing south winds will quickly return to most of the Plains as the upper trough begins to approach from the west. Confidence continues to increase with regards to relative humidity dropping to near or just above critical thresholds during the afternoon from western OK northward into northeastern WY and SD. If trends suggest even lower RH impacting this region, probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent forecasts. This may especially be true across portions of NE and southern SD, where breezy sustained winds should continue well into the evening hours. Farther west across portions of eastern NV and western UT, south-southwesterly sustained surface winds are expected to increase under the base of the mid-level trough. Fuels are not overly receptive here, but are still unseasonably dry. Mixing throughout the day should also result in at least near-critical relative humidity being reached. ...D5/Thursday Great Plains and portions of the Midwest... Breezy south winds will persist across this region preceding the upper trough. Relative humidity by this time remains somewhat questionable. However, considering D4/Wednesday's near critical to critical environment, a continued lack of rainfall/receptive fuels, and confidence in wind speeds reaching critical thresholds; a 40-percent Critical area has also been introduced here. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to continue digging over the eastern CONUS D3/Tuesday. Another significant surge of colder air will accompany this feature, with a cold front making it as far south as the Gulf of Mexico by D4/Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient across KS/OK/TX on the fringe of this air mass Tuesday will support breezy northeast winds (similar to but stronger than today/Sunday). Farther west by mid week, a Pacific upper trough will move onshore as ridging shifts eastward over the Great Plains. Precipitation chances associated with this feature, including some lightning, are anticipated from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West D4/Wed-D5/Thur. A closed low is eventually expected over the Southwest by late this week into the weekend, while ridging replaces the trough over the eastern CONUS. ...D3/Tuesday Central and Southern Plains... Breezy northerly post-frontal winds will progress southwestward throughout the day from northern/central KS into northwestern TX, and portions of the eastern/southeastern TX panhandle. Although the overall relative humidity should remain just above critical thresholds, fuels remain highly receptive across most of this region. In addition, the latest model trends suggest higher wind speeds persisting across this region. As a result, a Critical 40-percent area has been introduced that covers most of KS and OK. ...D4/Wednesday Central and Southern Plains, and Great Basin... Increasing south winds will quickly return to most of the Plains as the upper trough begins to approach from the west. Confidence continues to increase with regards to relative humidity dropping to near or just above critical thresholds during the afternoon from western OK northward into northeastern WY and SD. If trends suggest even lower RH impacting this region, probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent forecasts. This may especially be true across portions of NE and southern SD, where breezy sustained winds should continue well into the evening hours. Farther west across portions of eastern NV and western UT, south-southwesterly sustained surface winds are expected to increase under the base of the mid-level trough. Fuels are not overly receptive here, but are still unseasonably dry. Mixing throughout the day should also result in at least near-critical relative humidity being reached. ...D5/Thursday Great Plains and portions of the Midwest... Breezy south winds will persist across this region preceding the upper trough. Relative humidity by this time remains somewhat questionable. However, considering D4/Wednesday's near critical to critical environment, a continued lack of rainfall/receptive fuels, and confidence in wind speeds reaching critical thresholds; a 40-percent Critical area has also been introduced here. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to continue digging over the eastern CONUS D3/Tuesday. Another significant surge of colder air will accompany this feature, with a cold front making it as far south as the Gulf of Mexico by D4/Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient across KS/OK/TX on the fringe of this air mass Tuesday will support breezy northeast winds (similar to but stronger than today/Sunday). Farther west by mid week, a Pacific upper trough will move onshore as ridging shifts eastward over the Great Plains. Precipitation chances associated with this feature, including some lightning, are anticipated from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West D4/Wed-D5/Thur. A closed low is eventually expected over the Southwest by late this week into the weekend, while ridging replaces the trough over the eastern CONUS. ...D3/Tuesday Central and Southern Plains... Breezy northerly post-frontal winds will progress southwestward throughout the day from northern/central KS into northwestern TX, and portions of the eastern/southeastern TX panhandle. Although the overall relative humidity should remain just above critical thresholds, fuels remain highly receptive across most of this region. In addition, the latest model trends suggest higher wind speeds persisting across this region. As a result, a Critical 40-percent area has been introduced that covers most of KS and OK. ...D4/Wednesday Central and Southern Plains, and Great Basin... Increasing south winds will quickly return to most of the Plains as the upper trough begins to approach from the west. Confidence continues to increase with regards to relative humidity dropping to near or just above critical thresholds during the afternoon from western OK northward into northeastern WY and SD. If trends suggest even lower RH impacting this region, probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent forecasts. This may especially be true across portions of NE and southern SD, where breezy sustained winds should continue well into the evening hours. Farther west across portions of eastern NV and western UT, south-southwesterly sustained surface winds are expected to increase under the base of the mid-level trough. Fuels are not overly receptive here, but are still unseasonably dry. Mixing throughout the day should also result in at least near-critical relative humidity being reached. ...D5/Thursday Great Plains and portions of the Midwest... Breezy south winds will persist across this region preceding the upper trough. Relative humidity by this time remains somewhat questionable. However, considering D4/Wednesday's near critical to critical environment, a continued lack of rainfall/receptive fuels, and confidence in wind speeds reaching critical thresholds; a 40-percent Critical area has also been introduced here. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to continue digging over the eastern CONUS D3/Tuesday. Another significant surge of colder air will accompany this feature, with a cold front making it as far south as the Gulf of Mexico by D4/Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient across KS/OK/TX on the fringe of this air mass Tuesday will support breezy northeast winds (similar to but stronger than today/Sunday). Farther west by mid week, a Pacific upper trough will move onshore as ridging shifts eastward over the Great Plains. Precipitation chances associated with this feature, including some lightning, are anticipated from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West D4/Wed-D5/Thur. A closed low is eventually expected over the Southwest by late this week into the weekend, while ridging replaces the trough over the eastern CONUS. ...D3/Tuesday Central and Southern Plains... Breezy northerly post-frontal winds will progress southwestward throughout the day from northern/central KS into northwestern TX, and portions of the eastern/southeastern TX panhandle. Although the overall relative humidity should remain just above critical thresholds, fuels remain highly receptive across most of this region. In addition, the latest model trends suggest higher wind speeds persisting across this region. As a result, a Critical 40-percent area has been introduced that covers most of KS and OK. ...D4/Wednesday Central and Southern Plains, and Great Basin... Increasing south winds will quickly return to most of the Plains as the upper trough begins to approach from the west. Confidence continues to increase with regards to relative humidity dropping to near or just above critical thresholds during the afternoon from western OK northward into northeastern WY and SD. If trends suggest even lower RH impacting this region, probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent forecasts. This may especially be true across portions of NE and southern SD, where breezy sustained winds should continue well into the evening hours. Farther west across portions of eastern NV and western UT, south-southwesterly sustained surface winds are expected to increase under the base of the mid-level trough. Fuels are not overly receptive here, but are still unseasonably dry. Mixing throughout the day should also result in at least near-critical relative humidity being reached. ...D5/Thursday Great Plains and portions of the Midwest... Breezy south winds will persist across this region preceding the upper trough. Relative humidity by this time remains somewhat questionable. However, considering D4/Wednesday's near critical to critical environment, a continued lack of rainfall/receptive fuels, and confidence in wind speeds reaching critical thresholds; a 40-percent Critical area has also been introduced here. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region. Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners may support a few lightning flashes as well. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region. Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners may support a few lightning flashes as well. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region. Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners may support a few lightning flashes as well. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more