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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS... The Critical area in the central/northern Plains was expanded slightly westward, northward, and northeastward. Here, confidence in the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) and around 20 percent RH over dry fuels has increased. An Elevated area was introduced over portions of the central Gulf Coast, where breezy post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph with higher gusts) will overlap 25-30 percent RH for a few hours during the afternoon. The Elevated area has been confined to areas that missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last month, and fuels should be receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS... The Critical area in the central/northern Plains was expanded slightly westward, northward, and northeastward. Here, confidence in the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) and around 20 percent RH over dry fuels has increased. An Elevated area was introduced over portions of the central Gulf Coast, where breezy post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph with higher gusts) will overlap 25-30 percent RH for a few hours during the afternoon. The Elevated area has been confined to areas that missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last month, and fuels should be receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS... The Critical area in the central/northern Plains was expanded slightly westward, northward, and northeastward. Here, confidence in the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) and around 20 percent RH over dry fuels has increased. An Elevated area was introduced over portions of the central Gulf Coast, where breezy post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph with higher gusts) will overlap 25-30 percent RH for a few hours during the afternoon. The Elevated area has been confined to areas that missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last month, and fuels should be receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS... The Critical area in the central/northern Plains was expanded slightly westward, northward, and northeastward. Here, confidence in the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) and around 20 percent RH over dry fuels has increased. An Elevated area was introduced over portions of the central Gulf Coast, where breezy post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph with higher gusts) will overlap 25-30 percent RH for a few hours during the afternoon. The Elevated area has been confined to areas that missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last month, and fuels should be receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS... The Critical area in the central/northern Plains was expanded slightly westward, northward, and northeastward. Here, confidence in the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) and around 20 percent RH over dry fuels has increased. An Elevated area was introduced over portions of the central Gulf Coast, where breezy post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph with higher gusts) will overlap 25-30 percent RH for a few hours during the afternoon. The Elevated area has been confined to areas that missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last month, and fuels should be receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Water users in Pikeville were under a mandatory water restriction until further notice due to drought. Water should not be used for washing vehicles, driveways, watering lawns, etc. Sequatchie Valley Now (South Pittsburg, Tenn.), Oct 15, 2024

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated lightning with low-topped thunderstorms will remain possible over the Great Lakes and central Appalachians into early this evening. Scattered storms will also remain likely over parts of the Southern Rockies ahead of a south/southwestward surging cold front. Additional isolated storms are possible ahead of the front along the Gulf Coast this evening/tonight. Cold mid-level temps beneath an upper trough moving onshore may be sufficient for sporadic lightning within the deeper convective showers over parts of northwest WA late tonight. However, cool surface temperatures, and paltry buoyancy (MUCAPE ~100-200 J/kg) suggest any lightning that does actually develop will likely remain below 10% spatial coverage. ..Lyons.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated lightning with low-topped thunderstorms will remain possible over the Great Lakes and central Appalachians into early this evening. Scattered storms will also remain likely over parts of the Southern Rockies ahead of a south/southwestward surging cold front. Additional isolated storms are possible ahead of the front along the Gulf Coast this evening/tonight. Cold mid-level temps beneath an upper trough moving onshore may be sufficient for sporadic lightning within the deeper convective showers over parts of northwest WA late tonight. However, cool surface temperatures, and paltry buoyancy (MUCAPE ~100-200 J/kg) suggest any lightning that does actually develop will likely remain below 10% spatial coverage. ..Lyons.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated lightning with low-topped thunderstorms will remain possible over the Great Lakes and central Appalachians into early this evening. Scattered storms will also remain likely over parts of the Southern Rockies ahead of a south/southwestward surging cold front. Additional isolated storms are possible ahead of the front along the Gulf Coast this evening/tonight. Cold mid-level temps beneath an upper trough moving onshore may be sufficient for sporadic lightning within the deeper convective showers over parts of northwest WA late tonight. However, cool surface temperatures, and paltry buoyancy (MUCAPE ~100-200 J/kg) suggest any lightning that does actually develop will likely remain below 10% spatial coverage. ..Lyons.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated lightning with low-topped thunderstorms will remain possible over the Great Lakes and central Appalachians into early this evening. Scattered storms will also remain likely over parts of the Southern Rockies ahead of a south/southwestward surging cold front. Additional isolated storms are possible ahead of the front along the Gulf Coast this evening/tonight. Cold mid-level temps beneath an upper trough moving onshore may be sufficient for sporadic lightning within the deeper convective showers over parts of northwest WA late tonight. However, cool surface temperatures, and paltry buoyancy (MUCAPE ~100-200 J/kg) suggest any lightning that does actually develop will likely remain below 10% spatial coverage. ..Lyons.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated lightning with low-topped thunderstorms will remain possible over the Great Lakes and central Appalachians into early this evening. Scattered storms will also remain likely over parts of the Southern Rockies ahead of a south/southwestward surging cold front. Additional isolated storms are possible ahead of the front along the Gulf Coast this evening/tonight. Cold mid-level temps beneath an upper trough moving onshore may be sufficient for sporadic lightning within the deeper convective showers over parts of northwest WA late tonight. However, cool surface temperatures, and paltry buoyancy (MUCAPE ~100-200 J/kg) suggest any lightning that does actually develop will likely remain below 10% spatial coverage. ..Lyons.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated lightning with low-topped thunderstorms will remain possible over the Great Lakes and central Appalachians into early this evening. Scattered storms will also remain likely over parts of the Southern Rockies ahead of a south/southwestward surging cold front. Additional isolated storms are possible ahead of the front along the Gulf Coast this evening/tonight. Cold mid-level temps beneath an upper trough moving onshore may be sufficient for sporadic lightning within the deeper convective showers over parts of northwest WA late tonight. However, cool surface temperatures, and paltry buoyancy (MUCAPE ~100-200 J/kg) suggest any lightning that does actually develop will likely remain below 10% spatial coverage. ..Lyons.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the developing mid/upper-level cyclone. ...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona... Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night. Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support any organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the developing mid/upper-level cyclone. ...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona... Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night. Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support any organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the developing mid/upper-level cyclone. ...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona... Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night. Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support any organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the developing mid/upper-level cyclone. ...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona... Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night. Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support any organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the developing mid/upper-level cyclone. ...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona... Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night. Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support any organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the developing mid/upper-level cyclone. ...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona... Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night. Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support any organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the developing mid/upper-level cyclone. ...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona... Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night. Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support any organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

Crop yields were down in southeast South Dakota due to drought. Drought-tolerant corn and bean hybrids have been helpful. KSFY-TV ABC 13 Sioux Falls (Sioux Falls, S.D.), Oct 4, 2024