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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent. First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday. A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast, westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region. Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2 to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent. First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday. A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast, westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region. Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2 to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent. First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday. A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast, westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region. Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2 to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent. First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday. A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast, westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region. Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2 to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent. First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday. A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast, westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region. Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2 to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent. First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday. A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast, westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region. Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2 to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent. First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday. A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast, westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region. Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2 to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent. First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday. A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast, westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region. Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2 to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent. First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday. A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast, westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region. Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2 to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ...20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more