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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...17z Update... Morning model guidance has increased surface winds across parts of the northern Rockies. Occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are possible across parts of eastern ID and far southwestern MT this afternoon. At least a few hours of overlap with RH below 20% and dry fuels could support elevated fire-weather conditions. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible in the lee of the Cascades. However, fuels here are less receptive. Otherwise, the prior outlook remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as another trough ejects into the Atlantic from the East Coast today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler/dry air will overspread most locales west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, while weak lee troughing will prevail in the Plains states. Surface wind fields over most of the CONUS should be light or variable, with any wildfire spread threats locally constrained to terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...17z Update... Morning model guidance has increased surface winds across parts of the northern Rockies. Occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are possible across parts of eastern ID and far southwestern MT this afternoon. At least a few hours of overlap with RH below 20% and dry fuels could support elevated fire-weather conditions. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible in the lee of the Cascades. However, fuels here are less receptive. Otherwise, the prior outlook remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as another trough ejects into the Atlantic from the East Coast today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler/dry air will overspread most locales west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, while weak lee troughing will prevail in the Plains states. Surface wind fields over most of the CONUS should be light or variable, with any wildfire spread threats locally constrained to terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...17z Update... Morning model guidance has increased surface winds across parts of the northern Rockies. Occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are possible across parts of eastern ID and far southwestern MT this afternoon. At least a few hours of overlap with RH below 20% and dry fuels could support elevated fire-weather conditions. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible in the lee of the Cascades. However, fuels here are less receptive. Otherwise, the prior outlook remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as another trough ejects into the Atlantic from the East Coast today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler/dry air will overspread most locales west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, while weak lee troughing will prevail in the Plains states. Surface wind fields over most of the CONUS should be light or variable, with any wildfire spread threats locally constrained to terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...17z Update... Morning model guidance has increased surface winds across parts of the northern Rockies. Occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are possible across parts of eastern ID and far southwestern MT this afternoon. At least a few hours of overlap with RH below 20% and dry fuels could support elevated fire-weather conditions. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible in the lee of the Cascades. However, fuels here are less receptive. Otherwise, the prior outlook remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as another trough ejects into the Atlantic from the East Coast today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler/dry air will overspread most locales west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, while weak lee troughing will prevail in the Plains states. Surface wind fields over most of the CONUS should be light or variable, with any wildfire spread threats locally constrained to terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2137 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 091512Z - 091645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase along the southwest Florida coast vicinity in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...The next outer convective band of Milton is set to move ashore along the southwestern coast of Florida in the next 1-2 hours. Wind fields this far west are stronger than farther east as evident in the KTBW VAD data. The potential for more discrete storms will be maximized on the southern portions of the convective band. Even with more storm interaction potential farther north, very large low-level SRH will still promote a risk for tornadoes. A strong tornado is possible particularly where storms will have better access to more buoyant inflow in the southern portions of the convective band. ..Wendt.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... LAT...LON 25398190 26128215 26698223 26958218 26978189 26438150 25948135 25448143 25338159 25398190 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible. ...FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024 Read more

MD 2136 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of South Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 091419Z - 091545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for tornadoes will continue late this morning into the afternoon. The threat will gradually expand northward as heating destabilizes the boundary layer. Wind fields will also increasingly support tornadoes with time. DISCUSSION...Low-level rotation has been increasing in two supercell storms south of Lake Okeechobee. One storm produced a tornado in Collier County just before moving into Hendry County. More recently, the storm in central Broward County produced a tornado as well. Storms earlier this morning generally began to weaken near Lake Okeechobee, but temperatures have been increasing with surface heating. That being said, the tornado threat will likely begin to extend farther north over the next few hours. Additional updrafts in eastern Collier County have also been slowly deepening over the last hour. This activity could intensify and similarly be capable of producing a tornado. Potential for tornadoes, including a strong tornado, should continue to increase as stronger low-level flow across the peninsula expands as Milton moves eastward and its wind field concurrently expands. ..Wendt.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 25688107 25938137 26148148 26338149 26748138 26978108 27048055 26808027 26368023 25788043 25558078 25688107 Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137 ..MOORE..10/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-086-087- 093-097-099-103-105-111-115-091640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-052-656-657-676-830- 836-853-856-873-876-091640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137 ..MOORE..10/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-086-087- 093-097-099-103-105-111-115-091640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-052-656-657-676-830- 836-853-856-873-876-091640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM Read more

MD 2135 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...much of southern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090945Z - 091315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The conditional risk of isolated tornadoes is expected to generally increase this morning, especially after sunrise. DISCUSSION...Low-level warming/moistening is noted on surface observations over southern FL this morning, as a boundary moves north toward a Miami to Naples line. Cells have generally languished over land due to the relatively cooler air mass in place, however, theta-e advection will continue to reduce that influence. Occasional supercells were noted off the western Peninsula, with renewed development noted recently within a zone well offshore. Radar also shows large-scale confluence bands/convection extending from western Cuba and curling northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Milton. Additional bands such as these could form farther east, and affect parts of southern FL later this morning, and especially along the aforementioned baroclinic zone now pushing north across far southern FL. Shortly after sunrise, boundary-layer mixing will result in destabilization for surface-based parcels, with 850 mb winds increasing to over 30 kt. 0-1 SRH is already over 100 m2/s2, and should generally approach the 150-200 m2/s2 range through the day. This will result in a favorable environment for a few tornadic supercells, given upper 70s F dewpoints and heating. As such, a watch may be considered closer to 12Z. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 26998247 26978206 27028157 27068130 27228095 27368067 27348015 26627990 25448010 24748055 24528135 24498204 24708221 25218223 25528256 25758277 26138302 26618302 26838286 26998247 Read more