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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/08/2024 Read more

The Nebraska Game and Parks implemented a temporary ban on campfires at all Nebraska state park areas and wildlife management areas until further notice due to the dry conditions. Camp stoves using liquid or gas fuel were allowed. News Channel Nebraska (Grand Island), Oct 4, 2024

Wildfires driven by extremely strong winds in drought-affected areas of western North Dakota burned large areas of oil fields, agricultural land, grassland and Badlands terrain. One person died and more than 100 people had to evacuate. The Elkhorn Fire near Grassy Butte charred 44 square miles and was 20% contained. The Bear Den Fire near Mandaree blackened 18 square miles and was zero percent contained. Downed power lines sparked some of the fires. The North Dakota Forest Service responded to 33 fires that burned 77 square miles over the weekend. That count does not include the massive Ray-, Tioga- and Alamo-area fires that grew into one huge conflagration. Livestock were lost in the fires, but it was not yet clear how many. The Associated Press, Oct 7, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... Ongoing thunderstorm activity this morning over south FL and vicinity along/near a weak baroclinic zone should generally remain sub-severe through the day, with modest low/mid-level flow limiting deep-layer shear. The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enhanced low-level southerlies expected to gradually overspread parts of the Keys and south FL late tonight (mainly after 06Z). A corresponding slow increase in low-level shear is anticipated in this time frame, which should support some potential for updraft rotation and isolated tornado/waterspout threat with any cells in outer rain bands on the eastern periphery of Milton's center. Still, there is a fair amount of guidance which shows that any outer rain bands that do manage to form late tonight into early Wednesday morning may tend to remain offshore from the Keys and southwest FL Coast. Even with this uncertainty, some threat for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas, mainly in the 06-12Z time frame. The threat for a few tornadoes is expected to increase into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 12Z/8 AM EDT Wednesday morning) across a greater portion of central/south FL and the Keys as Milton approaches the FL Gulf Coast. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... Ongoing thunderstorm activity this morning over south FL and vicinity along/near a weak baroclinic zone should generally remain sub-severe through the day, with modest low/mid-level flow limiting deep-layer shear. The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enhanced low-level southerlies expected to gradually overspread parts of the Keys and south FL late tonight (mainly after 06Z). A corresponding slow increase in low-level shear is anticipated in this time frame, which should support some potential for updraft rotation and isolated tornado/waterspout threat with any cells in outer rain bands on the eastern periphery of Milton's center. Still, there is a fair amount of guidance which shows that any outer rain bands that do manage to form late tonight into early Wednesday morning may tend to remain offshore from the Keys and southwest FL Coast. Even with this uncertainty, some threat for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas, mainly in the 06-12Z time frame. The threat for a few tornadoes is expected to increase into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 12Z/8 AM EDT Wednesday morning) across a greater portion of central/south FL and the Keys as Milton approaches the FL Gulf Coast. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... Ongoing thunderstorm activity this morning over south FL and vicinity along/near a weak baroclinic zone should generally remain sub-severe through the day, with modest low/mid-level flow limiting deep-layer shear. The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enhanced low-level southerlies expected to gradually overspread parts of the Keys and south FL late tonight (mainly after 06Z). A corresponding slow increase in low-level shear is anticipated in this time frame, which should support some potential for updraft rotation and isolated tornado/waterspout threat with any cells in outer rain bands on the eastern periphery of Milton's center. Still, there is a fair amount of guidance which shows that any outer rain bands that do manage to form late tonight into early Wednesday morning may tend to remain offshore from the Keys and southwest FL Coast. Even with this uncertainty, some threat for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas, mainly in the 06-12Z time frame. The threat for a few tornadoes is expected to increase into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 12Z/8 AM EDT Wednesday morning) across a greater portion of central/south FL and the Keys as Milton approaches the FL Gulf Coast. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... Ongoing thunderstorm activity this morning over south FL and vicinity along/near a weak baroclinic zone should generally remain sub-severe through the day, with modest low/mid-level flow limiting deep-layer shear. The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enhanced low-level southerlies expected to gradually overspread parts of the Keys and south FL late tonight (mainly after 06Z). A corresponding slow increase in low-level shear is anticipated in this time frame, which should support some potential for updraft rotation and isolated tornado/waterspout threat with any cells in outer rain bands on the eastern periphery of Milton's center. Still, there is a fair amount of guidance which shows that any outer rain bands that do manage to form late tonight into early Wednesday morning may tend to remain offshore from the Keys and southwest FL Coast. Even with this uncertainty, some threat for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas, mainly in the 06-12Z time frame. The threat for a few tornadoes is expected to increase into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 12Z/8 AM EDT Wednesday morning) across a greater portion of central/south FL and the Keys as Milton approaches the FL Gulf Coast. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/08/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 150 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico, have changed
little in organization since yesterday. Only a small increase in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression
during the next day or so. By late Wednesday, upper-level winds are
forecast to become more unfavorable, and further development is not
expected. The system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward
to northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the enhanced westerly flow over southern Canada throughout the period. The first shortwave is forecast to move from Ontario through the St. Lawrence Valley and New England on D4/Friday. The second shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of the first, progressing from the Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Saturday. Beginning late D5/Saturday or early D6/Sunday, this second shortwave may further mature into a cyclone over eastern Ontario. This cyclone is then forecast to drift eastward early next week, with upper troughing associated with this system expanding over the central and eastern CONUS. Some modest moisture return is possible into the Mid MS and OH Valleys on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D6/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return, and associated buoyancy, will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. A dry continental airmass will build in behind the front, promoting stable conditions the majority of the central and eastern CONUS early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the enhanced westerly flow over southern Canada throughout the period. The first shortwave is forecast to move from Ontario through the St. Lawrence Valley and New England on D4/Friday. The second shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of the first, progressing from the Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Saturday. Beginning late D5/Saturday or early D6/Sunday, this second shortwave may further mature into a cyclone over eastern Ontario. This cyclone is then forecast to drift eastward early next week, with upper troughing associated with this system expanding over the central and eastern CONUS. Some modest moisture return is possible into the Mid MS and OH Valleys on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D6/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return, and associated buoyancy, will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. A dry continental airmass will build in behind the front, promoting stable conditions the majority of the central and eastern CONUS early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the enhanced westerly flow over southern Canada throughout the period. The first shortwave is forecast to move from Ontario through the St. Lawrence Valley and New England on D4/Friday. The second shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of the first, progressing from the Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Saturday. Beginning late D5/Saturday or early D6/Sunday, this second shortwave may further mature into a cyclone over eastern Ontario. This cyclone is then forecast to drift eastward early next week, with upper troughing associated with this system expanding over the central and eastern CONUS. Some modest moisture return is possible into the Mid MS and OH Valleys on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D6/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return, and associated buoyancy, will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. A dry continental airmass will build in behind the front, promoting stable conditions the majority of the central and eastern CONUS early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the enhanced westerly flow over southern Canada throughout the period. The first shortwave is forecast to move from Ontario through the St. Lawrence Valley and New England on D4/Friday. The second shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of the first, progressing from the Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Saturday. Beginning late D5/Saturday or early D6/Sunday, this second shortwave may further mature into a cyclone over eastern Ontario. This cyclone is then forecast to drift eastward early next week, with upper troughing associated with this system expanding over the central and eastern CONUS. Some modest moisture return is possible into the Mid MS and OH Valleys on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D6/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return, and associated buoyancy, will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. A dry continental airmass will build in behind the front, promoting stable conditions the majority of the central and eastern CONUS early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the enhanced westerly flow over southern Canada throughout the period. The first shortwave is forecast to move from Ontario through the St. Lawrence Valley and New England on D4/Friday. The second shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of the first, progressing from the Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Saturday. Beginning late D5/Saturday or early D6/Sunday, this second shortwave may further mature into a cyclone over eastern Ontario. This cyclone is then forecast to drift eastward early next week, with upper troughing associated with this system expanding over the central and eastern CONUS. Some modest moisture return is possible into the Mid MS and OH Valleys on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D6/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return, and associated buoyancy, will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. A dry continental airmass will build in behind the front, promoting stable conditions the majority of the central and eastern CONUS early next week. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). At the surface, high pressure will dominate the western and eastern CONUS while the Plains states experience modest lee troughing. Overall, dry low-level conditions will persist across much of the western and central U.S. through the day, but with weak or variable winds, limiting widespread, significant wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). At the surface, high pressure will dominate the western and eastern CONUS while the Plains states experience modest lee troughing. Overall, dry low-level conditions will persist across much of the western and central U.S. through the day, but with weak or variable winds, limiting widespread, significant wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more