Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic while a second upper trough impinges on the West Coast, with upper-ridging building in between both troughs over the central U.S. today. Widespread surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS, promoting dry but relatively cool conditions, with light or variable surface winds common. On the larger scale, fire weather conditions should be quiescent, though some localized wildfire potential cannot be ruled out from the Interior West to the OH Valley during afternoon peak heating given dry fuels and lower RH. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the upper St. Lawrence Valley, with the cyclonic flow throughout the base of this system extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Cyclone Milton will be within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. Expectation is that a shortwave trough will move within the base of the upper low across New England while Milton also ejects quickly northeastward. This evolution will take the upper troughing off the East Coast, although some troughing may linger across the Southeast. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Farther west, the overall upper pattern is expected to deamplify/trend more zonal as upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest through the Upper Midwest dampens in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Within this ridging, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few lightning flashes are possible with the high-based convection associated with this low-amplitude shortwave and related cold mid-level temperatures across OK, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton as a hurricane over the east-central FL Coast early Thursday morning before the system then continues east-northeastward into the western Atlantic while weakening. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the peninsula. Even so ample speed shear will exist, with enough low-level curvature still in place to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the upper St. Lawrence Valley, with the cyclonic flow throughout the base of this system extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Cyclone Milton will be within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. Expectation is that a shortwave trough will move within the base of the upper low across New England while Milton also ejects quickly northeastward. This evolution will take the upper troughing off the East Coast, although some troughing may linger across the Southeast. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Farther west, the overall upper pattern is expected to deamplify/trend more zonal as upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest through the Upper Midwest dampens in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Within this ridging, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few lightning flashes are possible with the high-based convection associated with this low-amplitude shortwave and related cold mid-level temperatures across OK, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton as a hurricane over the east-central FL Coast early Thursday morning before the system then continues east-northeastward into the western Atlantic while weakening. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the peninsula. Even so ample speed shear will exist, with enough low-level curvature still in place to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the upper St. Lawrence Valley, with the cyclonic flow throughout the base of this system extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Cyclone Milton will be within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. Expectation is that a shortwave trough will move within the base of the upper low across New England while Milton also ejects quickly northeastward. This evolution will take the upper troughing off the East Coast, although some troughing may linger across the Southeast. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Farther west, the overall upper pattern is expected to deamplify/trend more zonal as upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest through the Upper Midwest dampens in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Within this ridging, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few lightning flashes are possible with the high-based convection associated with this low-amplitude shortwave and related cold mid-level temperatures across OK, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton as a hurricane over the east-central FL Coast early Thursday morning before the system then continues east-northeastward into the western Atlantic while weakening. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the peninsula. Even so ample speed shear will exist, with enough low-level curvature still in place to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the upper St. Lawrence Valley, with the cyclonic flow throughout the base of this system extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Cyclone Milton will be within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. Expectation is that a shortwave trough will move within the base of the upper low across New England while Milton also ejects quickly northeastward. This evolution will take the upper troughing off the East Coast, although some troughing may linger across the Southeast. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Farther west, the overall upper pattern is expected to deamplify/trend more zonal as upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest through the Upper Midwest dampens in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Within this ridging, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few lightning flashes are possible with the high-based convection associated with this low-amplitude shortwave and related cold mid-level temperatures across OK, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton as a hurricane over the east-central FL Coast early Thursday morning before the system then continues east-northeastward into the western Atlantic while weakening. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the peninsula. Even so ample speed shear will exist, with enough low-level curvature still in place to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080543
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 100 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico have changed
little in organization. Environmental conditions appear somewhat
favorable for additional development and only a small increase in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression
on Tuesday. The system is forecast to move slowly
north-northwestward to northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the
disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec throughout much of the period. Progression of this shortwave will induce a eastward shift to the parent cyclone, taking it over the St. Lawrence Valley by early Thursday. To the west of this cyclone, expansive upper ridging will extend from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. A flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, but the overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton and attendant tornado threat. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Hurricane Milton, which is currently centered about 35 miles north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, is forecast to continue northeastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the west-central FL coast by Wednesday evening. This system is then expected to continue east-northeastward across the central FL Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Low to mid-level flow is expected to increase across the peninsula throughout the day, substantially elongating hodographs. Mid 70s dewpoints will also result in modest buoyancy. Some added buoyancy is also possible via daytime heating and cloud breaks over the central and southern peninsula given the slower storm speed and smaller structure. While its difficult to know the timing and structure of any convective bands, potential exists for some of these bands to be favorably timed with peak heating. All of these factors suggest a tornado threat will exists within any deeper, more sustained convection. For additional information regarding Milton, including the latest track and additional hazards, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec throughout much of the period. Progression of this shortwave will induce a eastward shift to the parent cyclone, taking it over the St. Lawrence Valley by early Thursday. To the west of this cyclone, expansive upper ridging will extend from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. A flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, but the overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton and attendant tornado threat. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Hurricane Milton, which is currently centered about 35 miles north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, is forecast to continue northeastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the west-central FL coast by Wednesday evening. This system is then expected to continue east-northeastward across the central FL Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Low to mid-level flow is expected to increase across the peninsula throughout the day, substantially elongating hodographs. Mid 70s dewpoints will also result in modest buoyancy. Some added buoyancy is also possible via daytime heating and cloud breaks over the central and southern peninsula given the slower storm speed and smaller structure. While its difficult to know the timing and structure of any convective bands, potential exists for some of these bands to be favorably timed with peak heating. All of these factors suggest a tornado threat will exists within any deeper, more sustained convection. For additional information regarding Milton, including the latest track and additional hazards, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec throughout much of the period. Progression of this shortwave will induce a eastward shift to the parent cyclone, taking it over the St. Lawrence Valley by early Thursday. To the west of this cyclone, expansive upper ridging will extend from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. A flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, but the overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton and attendant tornado threat. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Hurricane Milton, which is currently centered about 35 miles north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, is forecast to continue northeastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the west-central FL coast by Wednesday evening. This system is then expected to continue east-northeastward across the central FL Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Low to mid-level flow is expected to increase across the peninsula throughout the day, substantially elongating hodographs. Mid 70s dewpoints will also result in modest buoyancy. Some added buoyancy is also possible via daytime heating and cloud breaks over the central and southern peninsula given the slower storm speed and smaller structure. While its difficult to know the timing and structure of any convective bands, potential exists for some of these bands to be favorably timed with peak heating. All of these factors suggest a tornado threat will exists within any deeper, more sustained convection. For additional information regarding Milton, including the latest track and additional hazards, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec throughout much of the period. Progression of this shortwave will induce a eastward shift to the parent cyclone, taking it over the St. Lawrence Valley by early Thursday. To the west of this cyclone, expansive upper ridging will extend from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. A flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, but the overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton and attendant tornado threat. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Hurricane Milton, which is currently centered about 35 miles north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, is forecast to continue northeastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the west-central FL coast by Wednesday evening. This system is then expected to continue east-northeastward across the central FL Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Low to mid-level flow is expected to increase across the peninsula throughout the day, substantially elongating hodographs. Mid 70s dewpoints will also result in modest buoyancy. Some added buoyancy is also possible via daytime heating and cloud breaks over the central and southern peninsula given the slower storm speed and smaller structure. While its difficult to know the timing and structure of any convective bands, potential exists for some of these bands to be favorably timed with peak heating. All of these factors suggest a tornado threat will exists within any deeper, more sustained convection. For additional information regarding Milton, including the latest track and additional hazards, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec throughout much of the period. Progression of this shortwave will induce a eastward shift to the parent cyclone, taking it over the St. Lawrence Valley by early Thursday. To the west of this cyclone, expansive upper ridging will extend from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. A flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, but the overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton and attendant tornado threat. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Hurricane Milton, which is currently centered about 35 miles north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, is forecast to continue northeastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the west-central FL coast by Wednesday evening. This system is then expected to continue east-northeastward across the central FL Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Low to mid-level flow is expected to increase across the peninsula throughout the day, substantially elongating hodographs. Mid 70s dewpoints will also result in modest buoyancy. Some added buoyancy is also possible via daytime heating and cloud breaks over the central and southern peninsula given the slower storm speed and smaller structure. While its difficult to know the timing and structure of any convective bands, potential exists for some of these bands to be favorably timed with peak heating. All of these factors suggest a tornado threat will exists within any deeper, more sustained convection. For additional information regarding Milton, including the latest track and additional hazards, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period. Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail. Meanwhile however, the main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Portions of Florida and the Keys... Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period, outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as early as late tonight. Given that the deep-layer wind field will be increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period. Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida, local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within sustained/rotating convective elements. As such, will maintain level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado probability. Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado forecast may be required. For additional information regarding Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period. Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail. Meanwhile however, the main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Portions of Florida and the Keys... Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period, outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as early as late tonight. Given that the deep-layer wind field will be increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period. Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida, local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within sustained/rotating convective elements. As such, will maintain level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado probability. Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado forecast may be required. For additional information regarding Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period. Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail. Meanwhile however, the main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Portions of Florida and the Keys... Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period, outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as early as late tonight. Given that the deep-layer wind field will be increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period. Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida, local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within sustained/rotating convective elements. As such, will maintain level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado probability. Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado forecast may be required. For additional information regarding Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period. Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail. Meanwhile however, the main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Portions of Florida and the Keys... Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period, outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as early as late tonight. Given that the deep-layer wind field will be increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period. Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida, local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within sustained/rotating convective elements. As such, will maintain level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado probability. Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado forecast may be required. For additional information regarding Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period. Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail. Meanwhile however, the main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Portions of Florida and the Keys... Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period, outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as early as late tonight. Given that the deep-layer wind field will be increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period. Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida, local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within sustained/rotating convective elements. As such, will maintain level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado probability. Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado forecast may be required. For additional information regarding Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more