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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as another trough ejects into the Atlantic from the East Coast today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler/dry air will overspread most locales west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, while weak lee troughing will prevail in the Plains states. Surface wind fields over most of the CONUS should be light or variable, with any wildfire spread threats locally constrained to terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as another trough ejects into the Atlantic from the East Coast today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler/dry air will overspread most locales west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, while weak lee troughing will prevail in the Plains states. Surface wind fields over most of the CONUS should be light or variable, with any wildfire spread threats locally constrained to terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as another trough ejects into the Atlantic from the East Coast today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler/dry air will overspread most locales west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, while weak lee troughing will prevail in the Plains states. Surface wind fields over most of the CONUS should be light or variable, with any wildfire spread threats locally constrained to terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as another trough ejects into the Atlantic from the East Coast today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler/dry air will overspread most locales west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, while weak lee troughing will prevail in the Plains states. Surface wind fields over most of the CONUS should be light or variable, with any wildfire spread threats locally constrained to terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures attendant to this shortwave. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures attendant to this shortwave. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures attendant to this shortwave. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures attendant to this shortwave. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures attendant to this shortwave. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... As Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula today, several tornadoes will be likely across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula, into the Florida Keys. ...Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to the eastern coast of Florida. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... As Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula today, several tornadoes will be likely across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula, into the Florida Keys. ...Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to the eastern coast of Florida. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... As Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula today, several tornadoes will be likely across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula, into the Florida Keys. ...Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to the eastern coast of Florida. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... As Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula today, several tornadoes will be likely across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula, into the Florida Keys. ...Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to the eastern coast of Florida. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... As Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula today, several tornadoes will be likely across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula, into the Florida Keys. ...Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to the eastern coast of Florida. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 Read more

MD 2134 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2134 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of the extreme southern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090431Z - 090600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of supercells may approach the extreme southern tip of the FL Peninsula over the next couple of hours, perhaps accompanied by a tornado threat. The severe threat should remain very localized, and a Tornado Watch issuance does not currently appear imminent. DISCUSSION...Pronounced supercell structures have materialized near a baroclinic boundary over FL Bay over the past hour or so, and are drifting north at around 5 kts. KBYX radar imagery depicts up to 35 kt rotation velocities about 2500 ft AGL, suggesting that mesocyclonic waterspouts may be in progress. At the moment, hodographs on regional VADs do not appear overly impressive, suggesting that favorable low-level shear/SRH is likely constrained to small areas nearest to the baroclinic boundary. Furthermore, adequate instability appears to be constrained to mainly southern Monroe and Miami-Dade Counties. As such, any inland tornado potential realized by these supercells as they attempt to move ashore should be very limited in spatial extent, so a Tornado Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. However, a Tornado Watch issuance will become more probable into the morning hours as the more favorable environment gradually expands and shifts northward. ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL... LAT...LON 25338128 25628120 25678082 25508051 25298046 25178056 25138080 25338128 Read more

341
ABPZ20 KNHC 090532
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a low pressure system located about 250 miles southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development
of this system is possible while it moves slowly north-northwestward
to northwestward. By late Wednesday, increasing upper-level winds
and dry air should end the chances for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 2133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL FLORIDA AND THE LOWER KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Areas affected...southwestern coastal Florida and the lower Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090023Z - 090530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development posing risk for waterspouts/tornadoes is possible offshore of southwestern Florida coastal areas and north of the lower Keys much of tonight. It appears that this may not spread into coastal areas and inland until closer to or beyond daybreak. However, trends are being closely monitored. DISCUSSION...A weak/diffuse surface frontal zone in advance of Hurricane Milton has been a focus for persistent discrete rotating storms the past several hours, roughly 50-150+ miles north-northwest through west of the Key West vicinity. This activity has likely been supported by forcing for ascent associated with weak low-level warm advection and moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear. Low-level hodographs are likely rather modest to weak, but clockwise curved, and in the presence of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content this probably has been sufficient to support low-level mesocyclones occasionally producing waterspouts. Through late evening and into the overnight hours, as Milton slowly accelerates northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the developing warm frontal zone probably will begin to surge northward to its immediate north and northeast. However, closer to southwestern Florida Peninsula coastal areas, the Rapid Refresh suggests that the boundary may remain quasi-stationary into early portions of the overnight hours, and may not begin approaching the Naples/Fort Myers vicinities until 09-12Z. Even at that time, low-level hodographs may only just be in the process of modest enlargement, as flow around 850 mb becomes southeasterly and begins to increase in excess of 30 kt. And, based on forecast soundings, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization may not develop inland of coastal areas until after daybreak. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 25238364 25588350 26158314 26078224 25848148 25408105 24968121 24668212 24248280 24538355 25238364 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, is expected to develop from the Florida Keys this evening northeastward across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula late tonight. ...Florida Keys/ Western and Southern Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue to move northeastward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the track of Milton, visible satellite imagery shows cold cloud tops associated with a large area of convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms within this area will move toward south Florida this evening into tonight. The latest RAP has moderate instability analyzed from the Florida Keys into far south Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Key West has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 ms/s2. RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear as Hurricane Milton approaches tonight, which should result in an isolated tornado threat across the Florida Keys and along the southwest Florida Peninsula coast. As Hurricane Milton moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight, an isolated tornado threat is also expected to develop across parts of south Florida, as instability and low-level shear increase. The threat over much of south Florida is expected to be concentrated after 09Z. ..Broyles.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, is expected to develop from the Florida Keys this evening northeastward across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula late tonight. ...Florida Keys/ Western and Southern Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue to move northeastward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the track of Milton, visible satellite imagery shows cold cloud tops associated with a large area of convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms within this area will move toward south Florida this evening into tonight. The latest RAP has moderate instability analyzed from the Florida Keys into far south Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Key West has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 ms/s2. RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear as Hurricane Milton approaches tonight, which should result in an isolated tornado threat across the Florida Keys and along the southwest Florida Peninsula coast. As Hurricane Milton moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight, an isolated tornado threat is also expected to develop across parts of south Florida, as instability and low-level shear increase. The threat over much of south Florida is expected to be concentrated after 09Z. ..Broyles.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, is expected to develop from the Florida Keys this evening northeastward across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula late tonight. ...Florida Keys/ Western and Southern Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue to move northeastward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the track of Milton, visible satellite imagery shows cold cloud tops associated with a large area of convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms within this area will move toward south Florida this evening into tonight. The latest RAP has moderate instability analyzed from the Florida Keys into far south Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Key West has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 ms/s2. RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear as Hurricane Milton approaches tonight, which should result in an isolated tornado threat across the Florida Keys and along the southwest Florida Peninsula coast. As Hurricane Milton moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight, an isolated tornado threat is also expected to develop across parts of south Florida, as instability and low-level shear increase. The threat over much of south Florida is expected to be concentrated after 09Z. ..Broyles.. 10/09/2024 Read more