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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, is expected to develop from the Florida Keys this evening northeastward across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula late tonight. ...Florida Keys/ Western and Southern Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue to move northeastward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the track of Milton, visible satellite imagery shows cold cloud tops associated with a large area of convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms within this area will move toward south Florida this evening into tonight. The latest RAP has moderate instability analyzed from the Florida Keys into far south Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Key West has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 ms/s2. RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear as Hurricane Milton approaches tonight, which should result in an isolated tornado threat across the Florida Keys and along the southwest Florida Peninsula coast. As Hurricane Milton moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight, an isolated tornado threat is also expected to develop across parts of south Florida, as instability and low-level shear increase. The threat over much of south Florida is expected to be concentrated after 09Z. ..Broyles.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, is expected to develop from the Florida Keys this evening northeastward across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula late tonight. ...Florida Keys/ Western and Southern Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue to move northeastward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the track of Milton, visible satellite imagery shows cold cloud tops associated with a large area of convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms within this area will move toward south Florida this evening into tonight. The latest RAP has moderate instability analyzed from the Florida Keys into far south Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Key West has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 ms/s2. RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear as Hurricane Milton approaches tonight, which should result in an isolated tornado threat across the Florida Keys and along the southwest Florida Peninsula coast. As Hurricane Milton moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight, an isolated tornado threat is also expected to develop across parts of south Florida, as instability and low-level shear increase. The threat over much of south Florida is expected to be concentrated after 09Z. ..Broyles.. 10/09/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a small
but well-defined area of low pressure located a little over one
hundred miles west-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. The
proximity of very dry environmental air to the west of the system
may continue to limit shower and thunderstorm activity and its
chances to become a tropical depression are decreasing. This system
is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward to northwestward,
just offshore of the coast of Mexico and by late Wednesday,
upper-level winds are also forecast to become unfavorable, ending
its chances for further development. Regardless of development, the
system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern
Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 8 22:06:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 8 22:06:02 UTC 2024.

The drought has affected West Virginia’s deer. The deer’s food sources have been limited, so they may not all be getting adequate nutrition. Some deer may be smaller or have underdeveloped antlers this season. Deer may be thinner than usual, especially the females that have been producing milk for their young. Drought can also make disease outbreaks more likely. Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) is a disease that sometimes occurs in drought conditions. Instances of it have already been confirmed in three counties in north-central West Virginia. WV News (Clarksburg, W.V.), Oct 8, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place over the central and western US will remain through midweek. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the fire-weather threat will be. Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place over the central and western US will remain through midweek. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the fire-weather threat will be. Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place over the central and western US will remain through midweek. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the fire-weather threat will be. Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place over the central and western US will remain through midweek. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the fire-weather threat will be. Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place over the central and western US will remain through midweek. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the fire-weather threat will be. Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place over the central and western US will remain through midweek. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the fire-weather threat will be. Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place over the central and western US will remain through midweek. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the fire-weather threat will be. Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place over the central and western US will remain through midweek. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the fire-weather threat will be. Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of west-central/south Florida and the Keys. ...20Z Update... Outside of minor adjustments to the General Thunderstorm areas over the Great Basin and Lower Great Lakes (based on the latest satellite and radar data), no changes were made to the outlook with this update. Any organized thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts and brief waterspouts/tornadoes should generally remain offshore of Southwest FL and north/west of the Keys until the overnight/early morning hours -- when the stronger low-level shear and mesoscale forcing accompanying Hurricane Milton overspread the area. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of west-central/south Florida and the Keys. ...20Z Update... Outside of minor adjustments to the General Thunderstorm areas over the Great Basin and Lower Great Lakes (based on the latest satellite and radar data), no changes were made to the outlook with this update. Any organized thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts and brief waterspouts/tornadoes should generally remain offshore of Southwest FL and north/west of the Keys until the overnight/early morning hours -- when the stronger low-level shear and mesoscale forcing accompanying Hurricane Milton overspread the area. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of west-central/south Florida and the Keys. ...20Z Update... Outside of minor adjustments to the General Thunderstorm areas over the Great Basin and Lower Great Lakes (based on the latest satellite and radar data), no changes were made to the outlook with this update. Any organized thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts and brief waterspouts/tornadoes should generally remain offshore of Southwest FL and north/west of the Keys until the overnight/early morning hours -- when the stronger low-level shear and mesoscale forcing accompanying Hurricane Milton overspread the area. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of west-central/south Florida and the Keys. ...20Z Update... Outside of minor adjustments to the General Thunderstorm areas over the Great Basin and Lower Great Lakes (based on the latest satellite and radar data), no changes were made to the outlook with this update. Any organized thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts and brief waterspouts/tornadoes should generally remain offshore of Southwest FL and north/west of the Keys until the overnight/early morning hours -- when the stronger low-level shear and mesoscale forcing accompanying Hurricane Milton overspread the area. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of west-central/south Florida and the Keys. ...20Z Update... Outside of minor adjustments to the General Thunderstorm areas over the Great Basin and Lower Great Lakes (based on the latest satellite and radar data), no changes were made to the outlook with this update. Any organized thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts and brief waterspouts/tornadoes should generally remain offshore of Southwest FL and north/west of the Keys until the overnight/early morning hours -- when the stronger low-level shear and mesoscale forcing accompanying Hurricane Milton overspread the area. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of west-central/south Florida and the Keys. ...20Z Update... Outside of minor adjustments to the General Thunderstorm areas over the Great Basin and Lower Great Lakes (based on the latest satellite and radar data), no changes were made to the outlook with this update. Any organized thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts and brief waterspouts/tornadoes should generally remain offshore of Southwest FL and north/west of the Keys until the overnight/early morning hours -- when the stronger low-level shear and mesoscale forcing accompanying Hurricane Milton overspread the area. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. Read more