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After the driest September on record in Iowa, plenty of soybeans and corn have been harvested. Forty-six counties have enacted burn bans as the dry conditions increase the fire risk. Several combine and equipment fires were reported. Iowa Capital Dispatch (Des Moines), Oct 7, 2024

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall upper pattern across the central and eastern CONUS is expected to undergo significant amplification from D4/Saturday into D7/Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move through progressively deeper troughing. By early D7/Tuesday, upper troughing is expected to extend from the primary cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes into the central Plains. A cold front is expected to accompany the first shortwave trough, moving across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the thunderstorm potential along this front low. Strong ridging will follow in the wake of this front, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is along the Gulf Coast/Florida, where enough low-level moisture may be in place to support some thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall upper pattern across the central and eastern CONUS is expected to undergo significant amplification from D4/Saturday into D7/Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move through progressively deeper troughing. By early D7/Tuesday, upper troughing is expected to extend from the primary cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes into the central Plains. A cold front is expected to accompany the first shortwave trough, moving across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the thunderstorm potential along this front low. Strong ridging will follow in the wake of this front, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is along the Gulf Coast/Florida, where enough low-level moisture may be in place to support some thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall upper pattern across the central and eastern CONUS is expected to undergo significant amplification from D4/Saturday into D7/Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move through progressively deeper troughing. By early D7/Tuesday, upper troughing is expected to extend from the primary cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes into the central Plains. A cold front is expected to accompany the first shortwave trough, moving across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the thunderstorm potential along this front low. Strong ridging will follow in the wake of this front, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is along the Gulf Coast/Florida, where enough low-level moisture may be in place to support some thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall upper pattern across the central and eastern CONUS is expected to undergo significant amplification from D4/Saturday into D7/Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move through progressively deeper troughing. By early D7/Tuesday, upper troughing is expected to extend from the primary cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes into the central Plains. A cold front is expected to accompany the first shortwave trough, moving across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the thunderstorm potential along this front low. Strong ridging will follow in the wake of this front, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is along the Gulf Coast/Florida, where enough low-level moisture may be in place to support some thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall upper pattern across the central and eastern CONUS is expected to undergo significant amplification from D4/Saturday into D7/Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move through progressively deeper troughing. By early D7/Tuesday, upper troughing is expected to extend from the primary cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes into the central Plains. A cold front is expected to accompany the first shortwave trough, moving across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the thunderstorm potential along this front low. Strong ridging will follow in the wake of this front, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is along the Gulf Coast/Florida, where enough low-level moisture may be in place to support some thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall upper pattern across the central and eastern CONUS is expected to undergo significant amplification from D4/Saturday into D7/Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move through progressively deeper troughing. By early D7/Tuesday, upper troughing is expected to extend from the primary cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes into the central Plains. A cold front is expected to accompany the first shortwave trough, moving across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the thunderstorm potential along this front low. Strong ridging will follow in the wake of this front, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is along the Gulf Coast/Florida, where enough low-level moisture may be in place to support some thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall upper pattern across the central and eastern CONUS is expected to undergo significant amplification from D4/Saturday into D7/Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move through progressively deeper troughing. By early D7/Tuesday, upper troughing is expected to extend from the primary cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes into the central Plains. A cold front is expected to accompany the first shortwave trough, moving across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the thunderstorm potential along this front low. Strong ridging will follow in the wake of this front, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is along the Gulf Coast/Florida, where enough low-level moisture may be in place to support some thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall upper pattern across the central and eastern CONUS is expected to undergo significant amplification from D4/Saturday into D7/Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs move through progressively deeper troughing. By early D7/Tuesday, upper troughing is expected to extend from the primary cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes into the central Plains. A cold front is expected to accompany the first shortwave trough, moving across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the thunderstorm potential along this front low. Strong ridging will follow in the wake of this front, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is along the Gulf Coast/Florida, where enough low-level moisture may be in place to support some thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerlies will likely extend from the Canadian Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern Quebec into New England. A shortwave trough embedded within these westerlies is forecast to progress quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec. A surface low associated with this shortwave will take a similar path while an attendant cold front pushes southeastward across the northern/central Plains and the Upper/Mid MS Valley. Low-level moisture ahead of this front will be scant, largely precluding thunderstorm development. A few isolated flashes are possible in the eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL vicinity early Saturday, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. Relatively weak flow aloft and stable surface conditions are anticipated elsewhere across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. Some moisture return is possible late Friday/early Saturday across the TX Coastal Plain, but warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection. Only area where thunderstorm coverage is expected to exceed 10% is over the eastern/southern FL Peninsula. Here, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will support modest buoyancy during peak heating. Surface northeasterlies and related low-level confluence may contribute to a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerlies will likely extend from the Canadian Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern Quebec into New England. A shortwave trough embedded within these westerlies is forecast to progress quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec. A surface low associated with this shortwave will take a similar path while an attendant cold front pushes southeastward across the northern/central Plains and the Upper/Mid MS Valley. Low-level moisture ahead of this front will be scant, largely precluding thunderstorm development. A few isolated flashes are possible in the eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL vicinity early Saturday, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. Relatively weak flow aloft and stable surface conditions are anticipated elsewhere across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. Some moisture return is possible late Friday/early Saturday across the TX Coastal Plain, but warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection. Only area where thunderstorm coverage is expected to exceed 10% is over the eastern/southern FL Peninsula. Here, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will support modest buoyancy during peak heating. Surface northeasterlies and related low-level confluence may contribute to a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerlies will likely extend from the Canadian Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern Quebec into New England. A shortwave trough embedded within these westerlies is forecast to progress quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec. A surface low associated with this shortwave will take a similar path while an attendant cold front pushes southeastward across the northern/central Plains and the Upper/Mid MS Valley. Low-level moisture ahead of this front will be scant, largely precluding thunderstorm development. A few isolated flashes are possible in the eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL vicinity early Saturday, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. Relatively weak flow aloft and stable surface conditions are anticipated elsewhere across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. Some moisture return is possible late Friday/early Saturday across the TX Coastal Plain, but warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection. Only area where thunderstorm coverage is expected to exceed 10% is over the eastern/southern FL Peninsula. Here, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will support modest buoyancy during peak heating. Surface northeasterlies and related low-level confluence may contribute to a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerlies will likely extend from the Canadian Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern Quebec into New England. A shortwave trough embedded within these westerlies is forecast to progress quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec. A surface low associated with this shortwave will take a similar path while an attendant cold front pushes southeastward across the northern/central Plains and the Upper/Mid MS Valley. Low-level moisture ahead of this front will be scant, largely precluding thunderstorm development. A few isolated flashes are possible in the eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL vicinity early Saturday, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. Relatively weak flow aloft and stable surface conditions are anticipated elsewhere across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. Some moisture return is possible late Friday/early Saturday across the TX Coastal Plain, but warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection. Only area where thunderstorm coverage is expected to exceed 10% is over the eastern/southern FL Peninsula. Here, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will support modest buoyancy during peak heating. Surface northeasterlies and related low-level confluence may contribute to a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerlies will likely extend from the Canadian Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern Quebec into New England. A shortwave trough embedded within these westerlies is forecast to progress quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec. A surface low associated with this shortwave will take a similar path while an attendant cold front pushes southeastward across the northern/central Plains and the Upper/Mid MS Valley. Low-level moisture ahead of this front will be scant, largely precluding thunderstorm development. A few isolated flashes are possible in the eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL vicinity early Saturday, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. Relatively weak flow aloft and stable surface conditions are anticipated elsewhere across the majority of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. Some moisture return is possible late Friday/early Saturday across the TX Coastal Plain, but warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection. Only area where thunderstorm coverage is expected to exceed 10% is over the eastern/southern FL Peninsula. Here, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will support modest buoyancy during peak heating. Surface northeasterlies and related low-level confluence may contribute to a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the northwestern U.S. as another trough ejects into the Atlantic from the East Coast today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler/dry air will overspread most locales west of the Rockies and east of the Mississippi River, while weak lee troughing will prevail in the Plains states. Surface wind fields over most of the CONUS should be light or variable, with any wildfire spread threats locally constrained to terrain-favoring areas with dry fuel beds, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more