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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist from the Upper MS Valley off the Northeast Coast on Tuesday, as the parent mid/upper cyclone remains largely in place over western Quebec. Farther west, expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies, will gradually build northeastward. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through the western periphery of this ridging from central CA into the western Great Basin. Surface pattern across much of the central and eastern CONUS will be dominated by high pressure while seasonably warm conditions persist across much of the western CONUS. A flash or two is possible across the western Great Basin amid isolated high-based convection attendant to the weak shortwave trough progressing through the region. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will be in place ahead of Hurricane Milton. Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Major Hurricane as it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Strengthening low to mid-level winds associated with this cyclone are expected to spread across the FL Keys by late Tuesday night and across much of the west coast of the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Outer rainbands associated with Milton could be moving into these areas at the same time, resulting in a low-probability potential for a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist from the Upper MS Valley off the Northeast Coast on Tuesday, as the parent mid/upper cyclone remains largely in place over western Quebec. Farther west, expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies, will gradually build northeastward. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through the western periphery of this ridging from central CA into the western Great Basin. Surface pattern across much of the central and eastern CONUS will be dominated by high pressure while seasonably warm conditions persist across much of the western CONUS. A flash or two is possible across the western Great Basin amid isolated high-based convection attendant to the weak shortwave trough progressing through the region. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will be in place ahead of Hurricane Milton. Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Major Hurricane as it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Strengthening low to mid-level winds associated with this cyclone are expected to spread across the FL Keys by late Tuesday night and across much of the west coast of the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Outer rainbands associated with Milton could be moving into these areas at the same time, resulting in a low-probability potential for a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist from the Upper MS Valley off the Northeast Coast on Tuesday, as the parent mid/upper cyclone remains largely in place over western Quebec. Farther west, expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies, will gradually build northeastward. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through the western periphery of this ridging from central CA into the western Great Basin. Surface pattern across much of the central and eastern CONUS will be dominated by high pressure while seasonably warm conditions persist across much of the western CONUS. A flash or two is possible across the western Great Basin amid isolated high-based convection attendant to the weak shortwave trough progressing through the region. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will be in place ahead of Hurricane Milton. Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Major Hurricane as it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Strengthening low to mid-level winds associated with this cyclone are expected to spread across the FL Keys by late Tuesday night and across much of the west coast of the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Outer rainbands associated with Milton could be moving into these areas at the same time, resulting in a low-probability potential for a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist from the Upper MS Valley off the Northeast Coast on Tuesday, as the parent mid/upper cyclone remains largely in place over western Quebec. Farther west, expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies, will gradually build northeastward. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through the western periphery of this ridging from central CA into the western Great Basin. Surface pattern across much of the central and eastern CONUS will be dominated by high pressure while seasonably warm conditions persist across much of the western CONUS. A flash or two is possible across the western Great Basin amid isolated high-based convection attendant to the weak shortwave trough progressing through the region. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will be in place ahead of Hurricane Milton. Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Major Hurricane as it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Strengthening low to mid-level winds associated with this cyclone are expected to spread across the FL Keys by late Tuesday night and across much of the west coast of the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Outer rainbands associated with Milton could be moving into these areas at the same time, resulting in a low-probability potential for a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula today, with a few lightning flashes also possible over the Sierra into the western Great Basin. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will continue to amplify across the Northeast while ejecting into the Atlantic, with upper ridging poised to build into the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over several locales, from the Intermountain West to the Appalachian Mountains. A few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a surface cold front across portions of New England this morning, as well as the Carolinas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also likely over portions of the central/southern FL Peninsula as rich moisture advects inland ahead of Hurricane Milton. Isolated thunderstorms may occur over and to the lee of the Sierra as a weak mid-level impulse traverses the area this afternoon. Lastly, a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over northeast Lower MI with a passing impulse. However, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula today, with a few lightning flashes also possible over the Sierra into the western Great Basin. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will continue to amplify across the Northeast while ejecting into the Atlantic, with upper ridging poised to build into the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over several locales, from the Intermountain West to the Appalachian Mountains. A few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a surface cold front across portions of New England this morning, as well as the Carolinas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also likely over portions of the central/southern FL Peninsula as rich moisture advects inland ahead of Hurricane Milton. Isolated thunderstorms may occur over and to the lee of the Sierra as a weak mid-level impulse traverses the area this afternoon. Lastly, a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over northeast Lower MI with a passing impulse. However, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula today, with a few lightning flashes also possible over the Sierra into the western Great Basin. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will continue to amplify across the Northeast while ejecting into the Atlantic, with upper ridging poised to build into the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over several locales, from the Intermountain West to the Appalachian Mountains. A few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a surface cold front across portions of New England this morning, as well as the Carolinas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also likely over portions of the central/southern FL Peninsula as rich moisture advects inland ahead of Hurricane Milton. Isolated thunderstorms may occur over and to the lee of the Sierra as a weak mid-level impulse traverses the area this afternoon. Lastly, a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over northeast Lower MI with a passing impulse. However, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula today, with a few lightning flashes also possible over the Sierra into the western Great Basin. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will continue to amplify across the Northeast while ejecting into the Atlantic, with upper ridging poised to build into the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over several locales, from the Intermountain West to the Appalachian Mountains. A few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a surface cold front across portions of New England this morning, as well as the Carolinas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also likely over portions of the central/southern FL Peninsula as rich moisture advects inland ahead of Hurricane Milton. Isolated thunderstorms may occur over and to the lee of the Sierra as a weak mid-level impulse traverses the area this afternoon. Lastly, a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over northeast Lower MI with a passing impulse. However, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 10/07/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico
remain limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions,
however, appear generally favorable for additional development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or two while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ZZV TO 15 W DUJ TO 25 ENE BFD. ..GOSS..10/07/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-059-081-070140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT GUERNSEY JEFFERSON PAC003-005-019-023-031-033-051-059-063-065-125-129-070140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BUTLER CAMERON CLARION CLEARFIELD FAYETTE GREENE INDIANA JEFFERSON WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND WVC009-051-069-070140- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKE MARSHALL OHIO Read more

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ZZV TO 15 W DUJ TO 25 ENE BFD. ..GOSS..10/07/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-059-081-070140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT GUERNSEY JEFFERSON PAC003-005-019-023-031-033-051-059-063-065-125-129-070140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BUTLER CAMERON CLARION CLEARFIELD FAYETTE GREENE INDIANA JEFFERSON WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND WVC009-051-069-070140- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKE MARSHALL OHIO Read more

WW 689 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA WV 062055Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New York Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the afternoon and into the evening across the Watch area. A few of the stronger thunderstorms will likely acquire supercell characteristics and pose an initial risk for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts. Upscale growth into a mix of cells and linear segments this evening will facilitate the severe risk potentially becoming primarily a damaging wind threat (60 to 70 mph gusts) before this activity weakens late this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Buffalo NY to 35 miles south of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe hail or damaging gusts remain possible across the central/northern Appalachians through early tonight. ...Synopsis... A line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms continues to track east along the windward side of the central and northern Appalachians ahead of a surface lee trough. Though these storms have a history of marginally severe hail and damaging gusts, the primary convective band is beginning to outpace the warm sector while tracking eastward. Nocturnal cooling will also contribute to further boundary-layer stabilization. Still, strong vertical wind shear is in place, evident via regional VADs, which depict large, curved hodographs. As such, any storms that can access the remaining scant buoyancy may still produce a couple instances of marginally severe hail or damaging gusts over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 Read more