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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple
of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more