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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS on Monday, while upper troughing prevails over the eastern states. Surface high pressure will build over much of the country as a surface cold front moves offshore much of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. A dry, continental airmass over much of the U.S. will preclude thunderstorm activity. However, the aforementioned cold front will stall across northern FL. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula amid deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest instability. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to strengthen into a hurricane and move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The system will remain well west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL during this time, precluding any tropical cyclone related tornado risk on Monday into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS on Monday, while upper troughing prevails over the eastern states. Surface high pressure will build over much of the country as a surface cold front moves offshore much of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. A dry, continental airmass over much of the U.S. will preclude thunderstorm activity. However, the aforementioned cold front will stall across northern FL. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula amid deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest instability. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to strengthen into a hurricane and move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The system will remain well west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL during this time, precluding any tropical cyclone related tornado risk on Monday into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS on Monday, while upper troughing prevails over the eastern states. Surface high pressure will build over much of the country as a surface cold front moves offshore much of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. A dry, continental airmass over much of the U.S. will preclude thunderstorm activity. However, the aforementioned cold front will stall across northern FL. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula amid deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest instability. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to strengthen into a hurricane and move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The system will remain well west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL during this time, precluding any tropical cyclone related tornado risk on Monday into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS on Monday, while upper troughing prevails over the eastern states. Surface high pressure will build over much of the country as a surface cold front moves offshore much of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. A dry, continental airmass over much of the U.S. will preclude thunderstorm activity. However, the aforementioned cold front will stall across northern FL. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula amid deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest instability. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to strengthen into a hurricane and move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The system will remain well west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL during this time, precluding any tropical cyclone related tornado risk on Monday into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS on Monday, while upper troughing prevails over the eastern states. Surface high pressure will build over much of the country as a surface cold front moves offshore much of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. A dry, continental airmass over much of the U.S. will preclude thunderstorm activity. However, the aforementioned cold front will stall across northern FL. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula amid deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest instability. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to strengthen into a hurricane and move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The system will remain well west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL during this time, precluding any tropical cyclone related tornado risk on Monday into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS on Monday, while upper troughing prevails over the eastern states. Surface high pressure will build over much of the country as a surface cold front moves offshore much of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. A dry, continental airmass over much of the U.S. will preclude thunderstorm activity. However, the aforementioned cold front will stall across northern FL. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula amid deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest instability. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to strengthen into a hurricane and move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The system will remain well west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL during this time, precluding any tropical cyclone related tornado risk on Monday into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The elevated region was expanded south and west across portions of central and western Oklahoma into the northern Texas panhandle. Here, despite cooler temperatures, a dry atmosphere and full insolation will allow relative humidity to fall to around 20-25% -- perhaps lower if temperatures end up higher than forecast. Given gusty north winds, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The elevated region was expanded south and west across portions of central and western Oklahoma into the northern Texas panhandle. Here, despite cooler temperatures, a dry atmosphere and full insolation will allow relative humidity to fall to around 20-25% -- perhaps lower if temperatures end up higher than forecast. Given gusty north winds, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The elevated region was expanded south and west across portions of central and western Oklahoma into the northern Texas panhandle. Here, despite cooler temperatures, a dry atmosphere and full insolation will allow relative humidity to fall to around 20-25% -- perhaps lower if temperatures end up higher than forecast. Given gusty north winds, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The elevated region was expanded south and west across portions of central and western Oklahoma into the northern Texas panhandle. Here, despite cooler temperatures, a dry atmosphere and full insolation will allow relative humidity to fall to around 20-25% -- perhaps lower if temperatures end up higher than forecast. Given gusty north winds, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more