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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Milton to move across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday/Day 4. A tornado threat, associated with Milton, will likely affect parts of the Florida Peninsula throughout much of the day, and possibly into the night period. The magnitude of Milton as it crosses the Florida Peninsula, and any associated severe threat, is highly uncertain at this time. It seems probable that Milton will be in the western Atlantic by Thursday morning, which would push the tornado threat away from the Florida Peninsula. From Friday to Sunday, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to remain in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast, with the moist airmass to the south of the front forecast to remain mostly offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Although some thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Florida Peninsula from Thursday to Sunday, instability is forecast to be too week for a severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Milton to move across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday/Day 4. A tornado threat, associated with Milton, will likely affect parts of the Florida Peninsula throughout much of the day, and possibly into the night period. The magnitude of Milton as it crosses the Florida Peninsula, and any associated severe threat, is highly uncertain at this time. It seems probable that Milton will be in the western Atlantic by Thursday morning, which would push the tornado threat away from the Florida Peninsula. From Friday to Sunday, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to remain in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast, with the moist airmass to the south of the front forecast to remain mostly offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Although some thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Florida Peninsula from Thursday to Sunday, instability is forecast to be too week for a severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Milton to move across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday/Day 4. A tornado threat, associated with Milton, will likely affect parts of the Florida Peninsula throughout much of the day, and possibly into the night period. The magnitude of Milton as it crosses the Florida Peninsula, and any associated severe threat, is highly uncertain at this time. It seems probable that Milton will be in the western Atlantic by Thursday morning, which would push the tornado threat away from the Florida Peninsula. From Friday to Sunday, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to remain in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast, with the moist airmass to the south of the front forecast to remain mostly offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Although some thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Florida Peninsula from Thursday to Sunday, instability is forecast to be too week for a severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Milton to move across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday/Day 4. A tornado threat, associated with Milton, will likely affect parts of the Florida Peninsula throughout much of the day, and possibly into the night period. The magnitude of Milton as it crosses the Florida Peninsula, and any associated severe threat, is highly uncertain at this time. It seems probable that Milton will be in the western Atlantic by Thursday morning, which would push the tornado threat away from the Florida Peninsula. From Friday to Sunday, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to remain in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast, with the moist airmass to the south of the front forecast to remain mostly offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Although some thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Florida Peninsula from Thursday to Sunday, instability is forecast to be too week for a severe threat. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Western Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Milton to become a hurricane and to move northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Milton is forecast to approach the western coast of the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday night. Strong low-level shear associated with Milton would be sufficient for an isolated tornado threat across much of the western Florida Peninsula, beginning on Tuesday night as Milton approaches the coast. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range concerning the track of Milton. Although a Marginal has been added for parts of the western Florida Peninsula, the area with the greatest severe threat could shift if the forecast track of Milton changes. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Western Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Milton to become a hurricane and to move northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Milton is forecast to approach the western coast of the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday night. Strong low-level shear associated with Milton would be sufficient for an isolated tornado threat across much of the western Florida Peninsula, beginning on Tuesday night as Milton approaches the coast. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range concerning the track of Milton. Although a Marginal has been added for parts of the western Florida Peninsula, the area with the greatest severe threat could shift if the forecast track of Milton changes. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Western Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Milton to become a hurricane and to move northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Milton is forecast to approach the western coast of the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday night. Strong low-level shear associated with Milton would be sufficient for an isolated tornado threat across much of the western Florida Peninsula, beginning on Tuesday night as Milton approaches the coast. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range concerning the track of Milton. Although a Marginal has been added for parts of the western Florida Peninsula, the area with the greatest severe threat could shift if the forecast track of Milton changes. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Western Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Milton to become a hurricane and to move northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Milton is forecast to approach the western coast of the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday night. Strong low-level shear associated with Milton would be sufficient for an isolated tornado threat across much of the western Florida Peninsula, beginning on Tuesday night as Milton approaches the coast. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range concerning the track of Milton. Although a Marginal has been added for parts of the western Florida Peninsula, the area with the greatest severe threat could shift if the forecast track of Milton changes. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England on Monday, as a cyclonic flow regime remains over much of the northeastern third of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Carolinas, Georgia and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints across the Florida Peninsula in the 60s and low 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, weak destabilization is expected. In response, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in some areas across the Florida Peninsula Monday afternoon. Instability is not expected to be strong enough across the Florida Peninsula for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England on Monday, as a cyclonic flow regime remains over much of the northeastern third of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Carolinas, Georgia and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints across the Florida Peninsula in the 60s and low 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, weak destabilization is expected. In response, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in some areas across the Florida Peninsula Monday afternoon. Instability is not expected to be strong enough across the Florida Peninsula for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England on Monday, as a cyclonic flow regime remains over much of the northeastern third of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Carolinas, Georgia and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints across the Florida Peninsula in the 60s and low 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, weak destabilization is expected. In response, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in some areas across the Florida Peninsula Monday afternoon. Instability is not expected to be strong enough across the Florida Peninsula for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England on Monday, as a cyclonic flow regime remains over much of the northeastern third of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Carolinas, Georgia and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints across the Florida Peninsula in the 60s and low 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, weak destabilization is expected. In response, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in some areas across the Florida Peninsula Monday afternoon. Instability is not expected to be strong enough across the Florida Peninsula for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough over the Northeast will continue to amplify through the day, while a large upper-level ridge builds into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. A mid-level short-wave trough will sweep across parts of the Midwest into the central Great Plains throughout the day. At the surface, warm/dry conditions will develop across the southern/central High Plains during the afternoon, as post-frontal return flow develops in advance of the aforementioned short wave. This may produce locally elevated fire-weather conditions for parts of the central High Plains, but such conditions appear too localized to introduce an elevated area at this time. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough over the Northeast will continue to amplify through the day, while a large upper-level ridge builds into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. A mid-level short-wave trough will sweep across parts of the Midwest into the central Great Plains throughout the day. At the surface, warm/dry conditions will develop across the southern/central High Plains during the afternoon, as post-frontal return flow develops in advance of the aforementioned short wave. This may produce locally elevated fire-weather conditions for parts of the central High Plains, but such conditions appear too localized to introduce an elevated area at this time. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough over the Northeast will continue to amplify through the day, while a large upper-level ridge builds into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. A mid-level short-wave trough will sweep across parts of the Midwest into the central Great Plains throughout the day. At the surface, warm/dry conditions will develop across the southern/central High Plains during the afternoon, as post-frontal return flow develops in advance of the aforementioned short wave. This may produce locally elevated fire-weather conditions for parts of the central High Plains, but such conditions appear too localized to introduce an elevated area at this time. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough over the Northeast will continue to amplify through the day, while a large upper-level ridge builds into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. A mid-level short-wave trough will sweep across parts of the Midwest into the central Great Plains throughout the day. At the surface, warm/dry conditions will develop across the southern/central High Plains during the afternoon, as post-frontal return flow develops in advance of the aforementioned short wave. This may produce locally elevated fire-weather conditions for parts of the central High Plains, but such conditions appear too localized to introduce an elevated area at this time. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more