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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The elevated region was expanded south and west across portions of central and western Oklahoma into the northern Texas panhandle. Here, despite cooler temperatures, a dry atmosphere and full insolation will allow relative humidity to fall to around 20-25% -- perhaps lower if temperatures end up higher than forecast. Given gusty north winds, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The elevated region was expanded south and west across portions of central and western Oklahoma into the northern Texas panhandle. Here, despite cooler temperatures, a dry atmosphere and full insolation will allow relative humidity to fall to around 20-25% -- perhaps lower if temperatures end up higher than forecast. Given gusty north winds, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The elevated region was expanded south and west across portions of central and western Oklahoma into the northern Texas panhandle. Here, despite cooler temperatures, a dry atmosphere and full insolation will allow relative humidity to fall to around 20-25% -- perhaps lower if temperatures end up higher than forecast. Given gusty north winds, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more