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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into the Northeast today and tonight. This trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these same areas through the period. Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and western U.S. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians... Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected). As the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to overspread the region through the day. Given low-level southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating storms. Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storms should grow upscale into a more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening. Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain, convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains. ..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into the Northeast today and tonight. This trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these same areas through the period. Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and western U.S. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians... Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected). As the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to overspread the region through the day. Given low-level southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating storms. Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storms should grow upscale into a more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening. Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain, convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains. ..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into the Northeast today and tonight. This trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these same areas through the period. Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and western U.S. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians... Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected). As the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to overspread the region through the day. Given low-level southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating storms. Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storms should grow upscale into a more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening. Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain, convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains. ..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into the Northeast today and tonight. This trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these same areas through the period. Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and western U.S. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians... Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected). As the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to overspread the region through the day. Given low-level southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating storms. Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storms should grow upscale into a more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening. Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain, convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains. ..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into the Northeast today and tonight. This trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these same areas through the period. Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and western U.S. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians... Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected). As the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to overspread the region through the day. Given low-level southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating storms. Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storms should grow upscale into a more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening. Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain, convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains. ..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060514
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located off the coast of
southwestern Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle portion of
next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 2130 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Wisconsin into western Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060006Z - 060130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and organization this evening. A few instances of severe hail and perhaps a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing ahead of an approaching cold front over western WI, as deep-layer ascent from a rapidly approaching upper trough and 700 mb CAA overspreads the Upper MS Valley. Ahead of the cold front, Surface-850 mb WAA supports marginal destabilization across Wisconsin into Upper MI, with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE noted per 23Z mesoanalysis. Strong tropospheric wind fields are in place, with 35-50 kts of southerly 925-850 mb flow overspread by 60+ kts of westerlies at the mid-levels, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear. Strong directional wind shear in the 925-500 mb layer supports large, curved hodographs and the associated potential for supercell structures. Nonetheless, buoyancy is scant, largely due to modest low-level moisture, with most of the aforementioned MUCAPE constrained well above 700 mb (per latest RAP forecast soundings). Furthermore, appreciable MLCINH remains in place. While strong forcing and shear support storm organization, limited buoyancy suggests that most storms, including any supercells that materialize, will likely be elevated in nature. Some potential for severe hail exists given strong wind shear coinciding with 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and a damaging gust or two also cannot be ruled out. Overall, the severe threat may remain isolated through the evening and overnight hours. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... LAT...LON 44179069 45999056 46738987 46908886 46438743 45708714 44658727 44048766 43818831 43788943 44179069 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Parts of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and northern Lower Michigan... A strong upper low, now crossing southeastern Manitoba per water vapor imagery, will continue progressing steadily eastward -- into southwestern Ontario -- through the period. An associated surface cold front -- trailing from a low near the Manitoba/Ontario border -- extends across western Lake Superior, northwestern Wisconsin, the southeastern tip of Minnesota, and into eastern Iowa at this time, and will move rapidly across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest through the overnight hours. Within a zone of ample/elevated instability, thunderstorms have developed over the past hour or so along the cold front -- from western Lake Superior into northwestern Wisconsin. Very strong flow aloft exists across this area, though generally unidirectional in the cloud-bearing layer. Some increase in flow with height through mid levels is yielding sufficient speed shear for organized storms, and attendant risk for hail with the strongest updrafts. Though the storms are elevated, the boundary layer is not strongly stable, suggesting that gusty/locally damaging winds may also occur -- particularly if an organized cold pool can develop. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2130. ..Goss.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Parts of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and northern Lower Michigan... A strong upper low, now crossing southeastern Manitoba per water vapor imagery, will continue progressing steadily eastward -- into southwestern Ontario -- through the period. An associated surface cold front -- trailing from a low near the Manitoba/Ontario border -- extends across western Lake Superior, northwestern Wisconsin, the southeastern tip of Minnesota, and into eastern Iowa at this time, and will move rapidly across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest through the overnight hours. Within a zone of ample/elevated instability, thunderstorms have developed over the past hour or so along the cold front -- from western Lake Superior into northwestern Wisconsin. Very strong flow aloft exists across this area, though generally unidirectional in the cloud-bearing layer. Some increase in flow with height through mid levels is yielding sufficient speed shear for organized storms, and attendant risk for hail with the strongest updrafts. Though the storms are elevated, the boundary layer is not strongly stable, suggesting that gusty/locally damaging winds may also occur -- particularly if an organized cold pool can develop. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2130. ..Goss.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Parts of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and northern Lower Michigan... A strong upper low, now crossing southeastern Manitoba per water vapor imagery, will continue progressing steadily eastward -- into southwestern Ontario -- through the period. An associated surface cold front -- trailing from a low near the Manitoba/Ontario border -- extends across western Lake Superior, northwestern Wisconsin, the southeastern tip of Minnesota, and into eastern Iowa at this time, and will move rapidly across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest through the overnight hours. Within a zone of ample/elevated instability, thunderstorms have developed over the past hour or so along the cold front -- from western Lake Superior into northwestern Wisconsin. Very strong flow aloft exists across this area, though generally unidirectional in the cloud-bearing layer. Some increase in flow with height through mid levels is yielding sufficient speed shear for organized storms, and attendant risk for hail with the strongest updrafts. Though the storms are elevated, the boundary layer is not strongly stable, suggesting that gusty/locally damaging winds may also occur -- particularly if an organized cold pool can develop. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2130. ..Goss.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Parts of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and northern Lower Michigan... A strong upper low, now crossing southeastern Manitoba per water vapor imagery, will continue progressing steadily eastward -- into southwestern Ontario -- through the period. An associated surface cold front -- trailing from a low near the Manitoba/Ontario border -- extends across western Lake Superior, northwestern Wisconsin, the southeastern tip of Minnesota, and into eastern Iowa at this time, and will move rapidly across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest through the overnight hours. Within a zone of ample/elevated instability, thunderstorms have developed over the past hour or so along the cold front -- from western Lake Superior into northwestern Wisconsin. Very strong flow aloft exists across this area, though generally unidirectional in the cloud-bearing layer. Some increase in flow with height through mid levels is yielding sufficient speed shear for organized storms, and attendant risk for hail with the strongest updrafts. Though the storms are elevated, the boundary layer is not strongly stable, suggesting that gusty/locally damaging winds may also occur -- particularly if an organized cold pool can develop. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2130. ..Goss.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Parts of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and northern Lower Michigan... A strong upper low, now crossing southeastern Manitoba per water vapor imagery, will continue progressing steadily eastward -- into southwestern Ontario -- through the period. An associated surface cold front -- trailing from a low near the Manitoba/Ontario border -- extends across western Lake Superior, northwestern Wisconsin, the southeastern tip of Minnesota, and into eastern Iowa at this time, and will move rapidly across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest through the overnight hours. Within a zone of ample/elevated instability, thunderstorms have developed over the past hour or so along the cold front -- from western Lake Superior into northwestern Wisconsin. Very strong flow aloft exists across this area, though generally unidirectional in the cloud-bearing layer. Some increase in flow with height through mid levels is yielding sufficient speed shear for organized storms, and attendant risk for hail with the strongest updrafts. Though the storms are elevated, the boundary layer is not strongly stable, suggesting that gusty/locally damaging winds may also occur -- particularly if an organized cold pool can develop. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2130. ..Goss.. 10/06/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located just off the coast of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and
a tropical depression could form during the early or middle portions
of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 5 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 5 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more