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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces this morning will move quickly eastward today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a strong low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario through the period in tandem with the upper trough. A trailing cold front will sweep quickly eastward today over the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely hinder thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent and mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough begin to overspread northern WI/MI. As convective initiation occurs this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, thunderstorms will probably tend to remain slightly elevated. Even so, adequate MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support robust updrafts and thunderstorm organization. Initially more discrete convection may pose a threat for large hail given the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as this activity races east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may still exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind eastward to include more of northern MI with this update. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity this evening across northern WI and the U.P. of MI, and no changes have been made to the Slight Risk across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces this morning will move quickly eastward today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a strong low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario through the period in tandem with the upper trough. A trailing cold front will sweep quickly eastward today over the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely hinder thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent and mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough begin to overspread northern WI/MI. As convective initiation occurs this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, thunderstorms will probably tend to remain slightly elevated. Even so, adequate MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support robust updrafts and thunderstorm organization. Initially more discrete convection may pose a threat for large hail given the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as this activity races east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may still exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind eastward to include more of northern MI with this update. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity this evening across northern WI and the U.P. of MI, and no changes have been made to the Slight Risk across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces this morning will move quickly eastward today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a strong low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario through the period in tandem with the upper trough. A trailing cold front will sweep quickly eastward today over the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely hinder thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent and mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough begin to overspread northern WI/MI. As convective initiation occurs this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, thunderstorms will probably tend to remain slightly elevated. Even so, adequate MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support robust updrafts and thunderstorm organization. Initially more discrete convection may pose a threat for large hail given the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as this activity races east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may still exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind eastward to include more of northern MI with this update. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity this evening across northern WI and the U.P. of MI, and no changes have been made to the Slight Risk across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces this morning will move quickly eastward today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a strong low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario through the period in tandem with the upper trough. A trailing cold front will sweep quickly eastward today over the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely hinder thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent and mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough begin to overspread northern WI/MI. As convective initiation occurs this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, thunderstorms will probably tend to remain slightly elevated. Even so, adequate MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support robust updrafts and thunderstorm organization. Initially more discrete convection may pose a threat for large hail given the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as this activity races east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may still exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind eastward to include more of northern MI with this update. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity this evening across northern WI and the U.P. of MI, and no changes have been made to the Slight Risk across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces this morning will move quickly eastward today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a strong low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario through the period in tandem with the upper trough. A trailing cold front will sweep quickly eastward today over the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely hinder thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent and mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough begin to overspread northern WI/MI. As convective initiation occurs this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, thunderstorms will probably tend to remain slightly elevated. Even so, adequate MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support robust updrafts and thunderstorm organization. Initially more discrete convection may pose a threat for large hail given the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as this activity races east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may still exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind eastward to include more of northern MI with this update. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity this evening across northern WI and the U.P. of MI, and no changes have been made to the Slight Risk across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/05/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift eastward across southern Quebec on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base. At the same time, expansive upper ridging will build eastward. By early D6/Thursday, this ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest northward across the Plains and Upper MS Valley into Ontario. Further eastward progression/expansion of this ridging is anticipated on D7/Friday, although some dampening is possible along its northern periphery over the Canadian Prairies. This pattern evolution will maintain a stable airmass across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will remain in place throughout the period. Additionally, medium-range guidance continues to suggest tropical cyclone development could occur over the Gulf of Mexico, with potential impacts across the FL Peninsula on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift eastward across southern Quebec on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base. At the same time, expansive upper ridging will build eastward. By early D6/Thursday, this ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest northward across the Plains and Upper MS Valley into Ontario. Further eastward progression/expansion of this ridging is anticipated on D7/Friday, although some dampening is possible along its northern periphery over the Canadian Prairies. This pattern evolution will maintain a stable airmass across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will remain in place throughout the period. Additionally, medium-range guidance continues to suggest tropical cyclone development could occur over the Gulf of Mexico, with potential impacts across the FL Peninsula on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift eastward across southern Quebec on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base. At the same time, expansive upper ridging will build eastward. By early D6/Thursday, this ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest northward across the Plains and Upper MS Valley into Ontario. Further eastward progression/expansion of this ridging is anticipated on D7/Friday, although some dampening is possible along its northern periphery over the Canadian Prairies. This pattern evolution will maintain a stable airmass across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will remain in place throughout the period. Additionally, medium-range guidance continues to suggest tropical cyclone development could occur over the Gulf of Mexico, with potential impacts across the FL Peninsula on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift eastward across southern Quebec on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base. At the same time, expansive upper ridging will build eastward. By early D6/Thursday, this ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest northward across the Plains and Upper MS Valley into Ontario. Further eastward progression/expansion of this ridging is anticipated on D7/Friday, although some dampening is possible along its northern periphery over the Canadian Prairies. This pattern evolution will maintain a stable airmass across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will remain in place throughout the period. Additionally, medium-range guidance continues to suggest tropical cyclone development could occur over the Gulf of Mexico, with potential impacts across the FL Peninsula on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift eastward across southern Quebec on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base. At the same time, expansive upper ridging will build eastward. By early D6/Thursday, this ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest northward across the Plains and Upper MS Valley into Ontario. Further eastward progression/expansion of this ridging is anticipated on D7/Friday, although some dampening is possible along its northern periphery over the Canadian Prairies. This pattern evolution will maintain a stable airmass across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will remain in place throughout the period. Additionally, medium-range guidance continues to suggest tropical cyclone development could occur over the Gulf of Mexico, with potential impacts across the FL Peninsula on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift eastward across southern Quebec on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base. At the same time, expansive upper ridging will build eastward. By early D6/Thursday, this ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest northward across the Plains and Upper MS Valley into Ontario. Further eastward progression/expansion of this ridging is anticipated on D7/Friday, although some dampening is possible along its northern periphery over the Canadian Prairies. This pattern evolution will maintain a stable airmass across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will remain in place throughout the period. Additionally, medium-range guidance continues to suggest tropical cyclone development could occur over the Gulf of Mexico, with potential impacts across the FL Peninsula on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Read more