Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

906
ABPZ20 KNHC 050513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection generally continues to diurnally diminish across the Appalachians region, and across the Gulf Coast/southeastern Atlantic Coast states this evening. Thunderstorms persist at this time across Deep South Texas, near the Florida Gulf Coast, and -- to a lesser/more isolated degree -- across the open Gulf. Through the end of the period, lightning should remain confined to these same areas. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection generally continues to diurnally diminish across the Appalachians region, and across the Gulf Coast/southeastern Atlantic Coast states this evening. Thunderstorms persist at this time across Deep South Texas, near the Florida Gulf Coast, and -- to a lesser/more isolated degree -- across the open Gulf. Through the end of the period, lightning should remain confined to these same areas. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection generally continues to diurnally diminish across the Appalachians region, and across the Gulf Coast/southeastern Atlantic Coast states this evening. Thunderstorms persist at this time across Deep South Texas, near the Florida Gulf Coast, and -- to a lesser/more isolated degree -- across the open Gulf. Through the end of the period, lightning should remain confined to these same areas. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 10/05/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited
and disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Atmospheric
conditions are becoming less conducive and further development is
not expected as the low moves slowly northward and northeastward
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the weekend or early part of next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part
of next week while the system drifts slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 4 22:12:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 4 22:12:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper low will exit the Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday then slowly move over southeast Canada and the Northeast early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West through early next week, with a weak upper low forecast to move onshore over southern California early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward over the central US by Day 7/Thursday - Day 8/Friday with upper-level troughing likely moving onto the West Coast late next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West through mid-next week then expanding and shifting to the central US. ...Day 3/Sunday: Midwest and Plains... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and central Plains, with locally critical conditions possible from Minnesota into Iowa. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions may develop farther south and east into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but recent rainfall will help mitigate the low forecast probability of critical winds/RH. Elevated conditions may also develop in portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma as well as southern Wyoming. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 8/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely from portions of inland southern California into the southern Great Basin on Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday as a weak upper low moves onshore. However, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this low and subsequent development of potentially critical winds/RH. A larger upper-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast late next week, but guidance is mixed on the timing and how far south/east stronger flow aloft extends into the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper low will exit the Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday then slowly move over southeast Canada and the Northeast early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West through early next week, with a weak upper low forecast to move onshore over southern California early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward over the central US by Day 7/Thursday - Day 8/Friday with upper-level troughing likely moving onto the West Coast late next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West through mid-next week then expanding and shifting to the central US. ...Day 3/Sunday: Midwest and Plains... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and central Plains, with locally critical conditions possible from Minnesota into Iowa. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions may develop farther south and east into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but recent rainfall will help mitigate the low forecast probability of critical winds/RH. Elevated conditions may also develop in portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma as well as southern Wyoming. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 8/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely from portions of inland southern California into the southern Great Basin on Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday as a weak upper low moves onshore. However, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this low and subsequent development of potentially critical winds/RH. A larger upper-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast late next week, but guidance is mixed on the timing and how far south/east stronger flow aloft extends into the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper low will exit the Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday then slowly move over southeast Canada and the Northeast early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West through early next week, with a weak upper low forecast to move onshore over southern California early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward over the central US by Day 7/Thursday - Day 8/Friday with upper-level troughing likely moving onto the West Coast late next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West through mid-next week then expanding and shifting to the central US. ...Day 3/Sunday: Midwest and Plains... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and central Plains, with locally critical conditions possible from Minnesota into Iowa. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions may develop farther south and east into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but recent rainfall will help mitigate the low forecast probability of critical winds/RH. Elevated conditions may also develop in portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma as well as southern Wyoming. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 8/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely from portions of inland southern California into the southern Great Basin on Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday as a weak upper low moves onshore. However, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this low and subsequent development of potentially critical winds/RH. A larger upper-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast late next week, but guidance is mixed on the timing and how far south/east stronger flow aloft extends into the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more