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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms ongoing across west-central IL should continue for a few more hours this morning, aided by modest warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer and ascent on the southern periphery of a shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest. With a mainly linear mode now dominant, severe hail appears unlikely. This activity should gradually diminish in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow and related deep-layer shear will limit the overall severe threat with any convection that develops across these regions. A pronounced shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms ongoing across west-central IL should continue for a few more hours this morning, aided by modest warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer and ascent on the southern periphery of a shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest. With a mainly linear mode now dominant, severe hail appears unlikely. This activity should gradually diminish in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow and related deep-layer shear will limit the overall severe threat with any convection that develops across these regions. A pronounced shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms ongoing across west-central IL should continue for a few more hours this morning, aided by modest warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer and ascent on the southern periphery of a shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest. With a mainly linear mode now dominant, severe hail appears unlikely. This activity should gradually diminish in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow and related deep-layer shear will limit the overall severe threat with any convection that develops across these regions. A pronounced shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms ongoing across west-central IL should continue for a few more hours this morning, aided by modest warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer and ascent on the southern periphery of a shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest. With a mainly linear mode now dominant, severe hail appears unlikely. This activity should gradually diminish in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow and related deep-layer shear will limit the overall severe threat with any convection that develops across these regions. A pronounced shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms ongoing across west-central IL should continue for a few more hours this morning, aided by modest warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer and ascent on the southern periphery of a shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest. With a mainly linear mode now dominant, severe hail appears unlikely. This activity should gradually diminish in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow and related deep-layer shear will limit the overall severe threat with any convection that develops across these regions. A pronounced shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/04/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible on Friday while the low moves slowly
northward or north-northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should
become less conducive and prevent further development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early part of next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week
while the system drifts slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place. Read more

MD 2129 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA INTO FAR NORTHEAST MO/NORTHWEST IL
Mesoscale Discussion 2129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Areas affected...South-central/southeast IA into far northeast MO/northwest IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040711Z - 040915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible overnight. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has increased in coverage and intensity over the last 1-2 hours across parts of Iowa, within a low-level warm advection regime. Recent intensification has occurred with a cell south of Des Moines, with other semi-discrete cells noted along the southwest periphery of the ongoing convection. These storms have developed within the northern periphery of a gradually expanding elevated buoyancy plume, with MUCAPE generally around 500-1000 J/kg. Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt for convection rooted within the 800-700 mb layer, sufficient for some storm organization. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will continue to support an isolated severe-hail threat with any stronger storms that can remain semi-discrete overnight. ..Dean/Gleason.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41319410 41749247 41839148 41729101 41309081 40589084 40369141 40669330 40709354 41319410 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ...Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2024 Read more