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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threats. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... A vigorous upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes will continue advancing eastward across parts of Quebec and the Northeast today. A related surface low over northern Ontario this morning will slowly occlude through the day, while a cold front extending across the upper Great Lakes and Midwest advances southeastward over the OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic by this evening. A narrow corridor of modest low-level moisture will return northward ahead of this cold front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s to perhaps low 60s. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading the warm sector through the day, in tandem with diurnal heating, should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. A belt of enhanced (50-60 kt) mid-level flow attendant to the upper trough will move over parts of the upper OH Valley, lower Great Lakes, and western Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. This strong flow aloft will contribute to substantial deep-layer shear (around 35-50 kt) and organized severe convection. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the cold front in eastern OH/western NY and northwest PA around 20-22Z. This initial development may be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a fairly quick transition to a line is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threats. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... A vigorous upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes will continue advancing eastward across parts of Quebec and the Northeast today. A related surface low over northern Ontario this morning will slowly occlude through the day, while a cold front extending across the upper Great Lakes and Midwest advances southeastward over the OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic by this evening. A narrow corridor of modest low-level moisture will return northward ahead of this cold front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s to perhaps low 60s. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading the warm sector through the day, in tandem with diurnal heating, should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. A belt of enhanced (50-60 kt) mid-level flow attendant to the upper trough will move over parts of the upper OH Valley, lower Great Lakes, and western Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. This strong flow aloft will contribute to substantial deep-layer shear (around 35-50 kt) and organized severe convection. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the cold front in eastern OH/western NY and northwest PA around 20-22Z. This initial development may be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a fairly quick transition to a line is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threats. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... A vigorous upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes will continue advancing eastward across parts of Quebec and the Northeast today. A related surface low over northern Ontario this morning will slowly occlude through the day, while a cold front extending across the upper Great Lakes and Midwest advances southeastward over the OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic by this evening. A narrow corridor of modest low-level moisture will return northward ahead of this cold front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s to perhaps low 60s. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading the warm sector through the day, in tandem with diurnal heating, should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. A belt of enhanced (50-60 kt) mid-level flow attendant to the upper trough will move over parts of the upper OH Valley, lower Great Lakes, and western Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. This strong flow aloft will contribute to substantial deep-layer shear (around 35-50 kt) and organized severe convection. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the cold front in eastern OH/western NY and northwest PA around 20-22Z. This initial development may be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a fairly quick transition to a line is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threats. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... A vigorous upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes will continue advancing eastward across parts of Quebec and the Northeast today. A related surface low over northern Ontario this morning will slowly occlude through the day, while a cold front extending across the upper Great Lakes and Midwest advances southeastward over the OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic by this evening. A narrow corridor of modest low-level moisture will return northward ahead of this cold front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s to perhaps low 60s. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading the warm sector through the day, in tandem with diurnal heating, should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. A belt of enhanced (50-60 kt) mid-level flow attendant to the upper trough will move over parts of the upper OH Valley, lower Great Lakes, and western Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. This strong flow aloft will contribute to substantial deep-layer shear (around 35-50 kt) and organized severe convection. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the cold front in eastern OH/western NY and northwest PA around 20-22Z. This initial development may be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a fairly quick transition to a line is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/06/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located off the coast of
southwestern Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Milton to move across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday/Day 4. A tornado threat, associated with Milton, will likely affect parts of the Florida Peninsula throughout much of the day, and possibly into the night period. The magnitude of Milton as it crosses the Florida Peninsula, and any associated severe threat, is highly uncertain at this time. It seems probable that Milton will be in the western Atlantic by Thursday morning, which would push the tornado threat away from the Florida Peninsula. From Friday to Sunday, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to remain in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast, with the moist airmass to the south of the front forecast to remain mostly offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Although some thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Florida Peninsula from Thursday to Sunday, instability is forecast to be too week for a severe threat. Read more