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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe hail or damaging gusts remain possible across the central/northern Appalachians through early tonight. ...Synopsis... A line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms continues to track east along the windward side of the central and northern Appalachians ahead of a surface lee trough. Though these storms have a history of marginally severe hail and damaging gusts, the primary convective band is beginning to outpace the warm sector while tracking eastward. Nocturnal cooling will also contribute to further boundary-layer stabilization. Still, strong vertical wind shear is in place, evident via regional VADs, which depict large, curved hodographs. As such, any storms that can access the remaining scant buoyancy may still produce a couple instances of marginally severe hail or damaging gusts over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe hail or damaging gusts remain possible across the central/northern Appalachians through early tonight. ...Synopsis... A line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms continues to track east along the windward side of the central and northern Appalachians ahead of a surface lee trough. Though these storms have a history of marginally severe hail and damaging gusts, the primary convective band is beginning to outpace the warm sector while tracking eastward. Nocturnal cooling will also contribute to further boundary-layer stabilization. Still, strong vertical wind shear is in place, evident via regional VADs, which depict large, curved hodographs. As such, any storms that can access the remaining scant buoyancy may still produce a couple instances of marginally severe hail or damaging gusts over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 Read more

MD 2132 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Areas affected...parts of western New York State and western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689... Valid 062254Z - 070100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of supercell structures will continue to spread toward the Allegheny Mountains of west central Pennsylvania, but probably will begin to weaken toward 8-10 PM EDT. Although some risk for severe weather may spread east of the current severe weather watch area, a new severe weather watch may not be needed. DISCUSSION...An initial, perhaps convectively enhanced, surge of cool air southeast of Lake Erie is already beginning to stabilize the narrow pre-cold frontal instability axis now near and southeast of the lower Great Lakes region. The east-southeastward movement of the ongoing convection across the Allegheny Plateau appears to be outpacing the advection of the instability axis, and it seems probable that storms will begin to gradually weaken through 00-02Z, as they acquire more stable inflow. Until then, however, a couple of isolated supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts while approaching the Allegheny Front. Although wind profiles are characterized by strong deep-layer shear and sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, the extent of the risk for tornadoes remains more unclear, given relatively low humidities in the lower/mid troposphere. ..Kerr.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 42667813 43187712 42917668 42187723 40907844 40147987 40488109 40998028 41347948 42507818 42667813 Read more

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ZZV TO 10 E FKL TO 25 SSE BUF TO 35 NW ROC. ..GOSS..10/06/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC009-037-073-121-070040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATTARAUGUS GENESEE ORLEANS WYOMING OHC013-019-029-059-067-081-157-070040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-019-023-031-033-047-051-053-059-063-065-073-083- 121-123-125-129-070040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 2132 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Areas affected...parts of western New York State and western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689... Valid 062254Z - 070100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of supercell structures will continue to spread toward the Allegheny Mountains of west central Pennsylvania, but probably will begin to weaken toward 8-10 PM EDT. Although some risk for severe weather may spread east of the current severe weather watch area, a new severe weather watch may not be needed. DISCUSSION...An initial, perhaps convectively enhanced, surge of cool air southeast of Lake Erie is already beginning to stabilize the narrow pre-cold frontal instability axis now near and southeast of the lower Great Lakes region. The east-southeastward movement of the ongoing convection across the Allegheny Plateau appears to be outpacing the advection of the instability axis, and it seems probable that storms will begin to gradually weaken through 00-02Z, as they acquire more stable inflow. Until then, however, a couple of isolated supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts while approaching the Allegheny Front. Although wind profiles are characterized by strong deep-layer shear and sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, the extent of the risk for tornadoes remains more unclear, given relatively low humidities in the lower/mid troposphere. ..Kerr.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 42667813 43187712 42917668 42187723 40907844 40147987 40488109 40998028 41347948 42507818 42667813 Read more

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ZZV TO 10 E FKL TO 25 SSE BUF TO 35 NW ROC. ..GOSS..10/06/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC009-037-073-121-070040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATTARAUGUS GENESEE ORLEANS WYOMING OHC013-019-029-059-067-081-157-070040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-019-023-031-033-047-051-053-059-063-065-073-083- 121-123-125-129-070040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 689 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA WV 062055Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New York Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the afternoon and into the evening across the Watch area. A few of the stronger thunderstorms will likely acquire supercell characteristics and pose an initial risk for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts. Upscale growth into a mix of cells and linear segments this evening will facilitate the severe risk potentially becoming primarily a damaging wind threat (60 to 70 mph gusts) before this activity weakens late this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Buffalo NY to 35 miles south of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062339
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Earlier satellite wind data indicated that an area of low pressure
located less than a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico
was becoming better defined. However, the current associated shower
and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or two while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 6 22:39:18 UTC 2024.

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CAK TO 15 N FKL TO 15 S BUF TO 40 NNE BUF. ..GOSS..10/06/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC009-013-029-037-063-073-121-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA ERIE GENESEE NIAGARA ORLEANS WYOMING OHC013-019-029-059-067-081-099-151-157-062340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MAHONING STARK TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-019-031-047-051-053-059-063-065-073-083-085-121- 123-125-129-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively stable and stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected across the US over the next several days. High pressure over the West will gradually expand eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies over the Plains. The increase in ridging will gradually shift stronger flow aloft northwards towards the international border. Beneath the ridge, high pressure will support dry and very warm conditions over much of the central and western US through the next several days. However, winds are expected to be relatively light over much of the CONUS, limiting the potential for more widespread fire-weather concerns. Fire-weather potential may begin to increase later this week into the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken and stronger flow aloft migrates south. Occasional gusty winds could develop over the northern Rockies and Plains as a strong cold front moves across the Plains and western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. Some fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, but confidence in the exact timing/coverage of any widespread fire-weather conditions remains low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively stable and stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected across the US over the next several days. High pressure over the West will gradually expand eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies over the Plains. The increase in ridging will gradually shift stronger flow aloft northwards towards the international border. Beneath the ridge, high pressure will support dry and very warm conditions over much of the central and western US through the next several days. However, winds are expected to be relatively light over much of the CONUS, limiting the potential for more widespread fire-weather concerns. Fire-weather potential may begin to increase later this week into the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken and stronger flow aloft migrates south. Occasional gusty winds could develop over the northern Rockies and Plains as a strong cold front moves across the Plains and western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. Some fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, but confidence in the exact timing/coverage of any widespread fire-weather conditions remains low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively stable and stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected across the US over the next several days. High pressure over the West will gradually expand eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies over the Plains. The increase in ridging will gradually shift stronger flow aloft northwards towards the international border. Beneath the ridge, high pressure will support dry and very warm conditions over much of the central and western US through the next several days. However, winds are expected to be relatively light over much of the CONUS, limiting the potential for more widespread fire-weather concerns. Fire-weather potential may begin to increase later this week into the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken and stronger flow aloft migrates south. Occasional gusty winds could develop over the northern Rockies and Plains as a strong cold front moves across the Plains and western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. Some fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, but confidence in the exact timing/coverage of any widespread fire-weather conditions remains low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively stable and stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected across the US over the next several days. High pressure over the West will gradually expand eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies over the Plains. The increase in ridging will gradually shift stronger flow aloft northwards towards the international border. Beneath the ridge, high pressure will support dry and very warm conditions over much of the central and western US through the next several days. However, winds are expected to be relatively light over much of the CONUS, limiting the potential for more widespread fire-weather concerns. Fire-weather potential may begin to increase later this week into the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken and stronger flow aloft migrates south. Occasional gusty winds could develop over the northern Rockies and Plains as a strong cold front moves across the Plains and western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. Some fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, but confidence in the exact timing/coverage of any widespread fire-weather conditions remains low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively stable and stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected across the US over the next several days. High pressure over the West will gradually expand eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies over the Plains. The increase in ridging will gradually shift stronger flow aloft northwards towards the international border. Beneath the ridge, high pressure will support dry and very warm conditions over much of the central and western US through the next several days. However, winds are expected to be relatively light over much of the CONUS, limiting the potential for more widespread fire-weather concerns. Fire-weather potential may begin to increase later this week into the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken and stronger flow aloft migrates south. Occasional gusty winds could develop over the northern Rockies and Plains as a strong cold front moves across the Plains and western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. Some fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, but confidence in the exact timing/coverage of any widespread fire-weather conditions remains low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively stable and stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected across the US over the next several days. High pressure over the West will gradually expand eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies over the Plains. The increase in ridging will gradually shift stronger flow aloft northwards towards the international border. Beneath the ridge, high pressure will support dry and very warm conditions over much of the central and western US through the next several days. However, winds are expected to be relatively light over much of the CONUS, limiting the potential for more widespread fire-weather concerns. Fire-weather potential may begin to increase later this week into the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken and stronger flow aloft migrates south. Occasional gusty winds could develop over the northern Rockies and Plains as a strong cold front moves across the Plains and western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. Some fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, but confidence in the exact timing/coverage of any widespread fire-weather conditions remains low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively stable and stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected across the US over the next several days. High pressure over the West will gradually expand eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies over the Plains. The increase in ridging will gradually shift stronger flow aloft northwards towards the international border. Beneath the ridge, high pressure will support dry and very warm conditions over much of the central and western US through the next several days. However, winds are expected to be relatively light over much of the CONUS, limiting the potential for more widespread fire-weather concerns. Fire-weather potential may begin to increase later this week into the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken and stronger flow aloft migrates south. Occasional gusty winds could develop over the northern Rockies and Plains as a strong cold front moves across the Plains and western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. Some fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, but confidence in the exact timing/coverage of any widespread fire-weather conditions remains low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively stable and stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected across the US over the next several days. High pressure over the West will gradually expand eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies over the Plains. The increase in ridging will gradually shift stronger flow aloft northwards towards the international border. Beneath the ridge, high pressure will support dry and very warm conditions over much of the central and western US through the next several days. However, winds are expected to be relatively light over much of the CONUS, limiting the potential for more widespread fire-weather concerns. Fire-weather potential may begin to increase later this week into the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken and stronger flow aloft migrates south. Occasional gusty winds could develop over the northern Rockies and Plains as a strong cold front moves across the Plains and western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. Some fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, but confidence in the exact timing/coverage of any widespread fire-weather conditions remains low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2131 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN GREAT LAKES
Mesoscale Discussion 2131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Areas affected...eastern Great Lakes Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 062026Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts, a few instances of large hail, and perhaps a tornado are expected this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Lakes. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...A band of deepening convection is evident across parts of northeast Ohio and southern Ontario near a surface cold front and a cyclonically curved mid-level jet. These features should provide lift for continued convective development as the afternoon progresses. Heating has warmed parts of the area into the upper 70s to low 80s, and continued moist advection has increased dewpoints into the upper 50s, resulting in 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE per Mesoanalysis and a 20Z sounding from PBZ. The impinging mid-level jet results in 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear, which ought to be sufficient for supercells with the initial development. Given a supercellular mode and 7.7 C/km 2-6 km max lapse rates on the 20Z PBZ sounding, some hail is possible early. A tornado is also possible given 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, though this may be mitigated by higher LCLs, especially across eastern Ohio. In addition, storms may be undercut by the cold front, which is expected to lead to upscale growth into linear segments with time. Once this transition occurs, given strong low-level flow, damaging gusts will become the primary threat as storms move to the east. The eastward extend of the severe threat may be mitigated by the narrow plume of moist air combined with loss of daytime heating this evening. ..Supinie/Smith.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41537797 40667847 40077925 39638029 39638134 40018223 40438246 40838242 41148228 41618152 42657896 43267899 43427832 43277781 42877779 42567784 41537797 Read more

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0689 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more