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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from the boundary where surface moisture is less robust. With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Southeast... A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast. Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from the boundary where surface moisture is less robust. With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Southeast... A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast. Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from the boundary where surface moisture is less robust. With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Southeast... A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast. Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

333
ABNT20 KNHC 020508
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

578
ABPZ20 KNHC 020503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gil, located well west-southwest of the southern Baja California
peninsula. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has issued its final
advisory on Tropical Depression Iona, which is now located west of
the International Date Line, well west-southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan. For
U.S. interests, refer to Department of Defense warnings issued by
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development, and a tropical depression could form late next week as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gil, located well west-southwest of the southern Baja California
peninsula. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has issued its final
advisory on Tropical Depression Iona, which is now located west of
the International Date Line, well west-southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan. For
U.S. interests, refer to Department of Defense warnings issued by
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development, and a tropical depression could form late next week as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE DGW TO 55 WNW RAP TO 55 SSW 2WX TO 55 N RAP TO 65 NNW PHP TO 40 NNE PHP TO 30 WSW PIR TO 30 SE PIR. ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-055-075-081-093-103-020540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE HAAKON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 565 SEVERE TSTM SD 012155Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An ongoing supercell/small cluster may continue to pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter across parts of northwest South Dakota. Over the next several hours, additional thunderstorms may form and consolidate into a bowing cluster with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Rapid City SD to 80 miles northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 564... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1871 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565... FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1871 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Northeast WY into western/central SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565... Valid 020248Z - 020415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe threat may continue into late evening. DISCUSSION...Convection initially associated with an MCV across northwest SD has evolved into a forward-propagating MCS this evening. Winds associated with this MCS have largely been subsevere thus far, though a strengthening low-level jet continues to help maintain this system, and strong to locally severe gusts remain possible as it propagates south-southeastward. Moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rates (as noted on the 00Z UNR sounding), along with a favorable wind profile (as observed in recent VWPs from KUDX), may also continue to support at least transient supercells along the southwestern flank of this system, accompanied by a threat for isolated large hail and possibly a brief tornado. Farther west, a cluster of storms is moving eastward across far northeast WY. Some short-term intensification cannot be ruled out with this cluster, as it encounters somewhat more favorable low-level moisture and buoyancy with eastward extent. Eventually, increasing CINH should result in a general weakening trend for both areas of convection within WW 565, though some remnant of the MCS across western SD may persist into late tonight. ..Dean.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44950518 44890315 44750160 45380105 45470061 45410023 44930020 44160000 43680035 43620119 43800254 43760378 43620438 43700472 44100489 44950518 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ITR TO 30 ESE AKO TO 40 E SNY. WW 564 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC095-115-020400- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS SEDGWICK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ITR TO 30 ESE AKO TO 40 E SNY. WW 564 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC095-115-020400- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS SEDGWICK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 564 TORNADO CO NE WY 012045Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify this afternoon and persist through the evening. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). A couple of tornadoes are also possible mainly towards the late afternoon and early evening when the peak supercell phase is forecast. Upscale growth into a thunderstorm cluster may subsequently occur this evening and the risk for severe gusts may correspondingly increase. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Scottsbluff NE to 30 miles west southwest of Akron CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28015. ...Smith Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 02:49:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 03:26:26 GMT

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE DGW TO 35 E GCC TO 35 SSE 4BQ TO 55 N RAP TO 65 S Y22 TO 50 SW MBG TO 35 W MBG TO 25 E MBG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871 ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-033-041-055-071-075-081-093-095-103-117-137-020440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON STANLEY ZIEBACH WYC011-045-020440- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 1870 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 564... FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado and far southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 564... Valid 020219Z - 020345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 564 continues. SUMMARY...A localized severe risk will continue for another hour or two across parts of Tornado Watch 564. A downstream watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A well-established storm cluster (with recent measured gusts up to 70 mph) is tracking southeastward at around 30 kt across far northeastern CO. A narrow corridor of moderately unstable inflow (lower 60s dewpoints), 30-40 kt of effective shear, and an established 30-35 kt low-level jet (per VWP data) will support the maintenance of these storms with southeastward extent for at least the next hour or two. Given the cluster storm mode, severe wind gusts continue to be the primary concern, though a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out -- given enhanced low-level hodograph curvature accompanying the low-level jet (around 250 m2/s2 effective SRH) and moist boundary layer. While these storms may move out of Tornado Watch 564, current thinking is that increasing nocturnal static stability should eventually limit the severe risk with east-southeastward extent. Therefore, a downstream watch is not currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40740360 41170300 41230248 41020199 40390156 39970181 39740234 39850308 40310362 40740360 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 02:49:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 02:49:59 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 020248 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gil Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 Gil appears to have rid itself of the intrusion of dry air it had been dealing with earlier in the day. The center is now embedded within a Central Dense Overcast, and as a result, subjective satellite estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB. Several objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are at that level or higher, so Gil is therefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Gil is moving faster toward the west-northwest, now 295/17 kt. Strong mid-level ridging is expected to persist to the north of the hurricane, which should cause Gil to continue moving quickly toward the west-northwest through much of the weekend. A slower forward motion with a turn toward the west is forecast by Monday as the weakening cyclone is steered by lower-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is just a touch south of the previous prediction, leaning toward the HCCA and AI models. Gil only has a small window for continued strengthening since cooler sea surface temperatures lie ahead. The NHC intensity forecast allows for a bit more strengthening through 12 hours, but then fast weakening is expected thereafter due to the cold waters. In fact, model-simulated satellite images indicate Gil will likely lose its deep convection in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows it becoming post-tropical at that time. Because of Gil's fast motion, the decrease in its winds are likely to lag the loss of convection, and the 45-kt forecast intensity at 48 hours is higher than is typical for when an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone becomes post-tropical. Gil is expected to open up into a trough by day 5, which is supported by most of the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.5N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 342 WTPZ32 KNHC 020247 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gil Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 ...GIL NOW A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 125.1W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gil was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 125.1 West. Gil is moving toward quickly the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A slower motion toward the west is forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday, and Gil is likely to become post-tropical as early as Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...GIL NOW A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Aug 01 the center of Gil was located near 16.5, -125.1 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 232 FOPZ12 KNHC 020247 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 5 54(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 130W 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 33(38) 17(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG