Aggregator

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 787 FOPZ12 KNHC 020832 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 32 44(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 130W 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 X 8( 8) 28(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 599 WTPZ32 KNHC 020832 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gil Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 ...GIL HOLDING STEADY BUT MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 126.8W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gil was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 126.8 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through much of the weekend. A slower motion toward the west is forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin Saturday, and Gil is likely to become post-tropical as early as Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...GIL HOLDING STEADY BUT MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Aug 01 the center of Gil was located near 17.4, -126.8 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 168 WTPZ22 KNHC 020831 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 132.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.5N 140.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.9N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 126.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains on Sunday. ...High Plains... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central and southern Plains on Sunday, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the High Plains. Near the trough, elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period. This slow-moving convection will likely be co-located with a moist axis from northwestern Oklahoma extending northward into east-central Nebraska, and is expected to persist into the early afternoon. Outflow from these storms will negatively impact destabilization. In spite of this, instability is forecast to develop further to the west from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas and west-central Nebraska. NAM forecast soundings from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas in the late afternoon have moderate deep-layer, mainly due to a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the potential for severe storms could be dampened by subsidence in the wake of the exiting mid-level trough. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains on Sunday. ...High Plains... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central and southern Plains on Sunday, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the High Plains. Near the trough, elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period. This slow-moving convection will likely be co-located with a moist axis from northwestern Oklahoma extending northward into east-central Nebraska, and is expected to persist into the early afternoon. Outflow from these storms will negatively impact destabilization. In spite of this, instability is forecast to develop further to the west from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas and west-central Nebraska. NAM forecast soundings from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas in the late afternoon have moderate deep-layer, mainly due to a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the potential for severe storms could be dampened by subsidence in the wake of the exiting mid-level trough. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains on Sunday. ...High Plains... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central and southern Plains on Sunday, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the High Plains. Near the trough, elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period. This slow-moving convection will likely be co-located with a moist axis from northwestern Oklahoma extending northward into east-central Nebraska, and is expected to persist into the early afternoon. Outflow from these storms will negatively impact destabilization. In spite of this, instability is forecast to develop further to the west from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas and west-central Nebraska. NAM forecast soundings from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas in the late afternoon have moderate deep-layer, mainly due to a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the potential for severe storms could be dampened by subsidence in the wake of the exiting mid-level trough. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains on Sunday. ...High Plains... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central and southern Plains on Sunday, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the High Plains. Near the trough, elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period. This slow-moving convection will likely be co-located with a moist axis from northwestern Oklahoma extending northward into east-central Nebraska, and is expected to persist into the early afternoon. Outflow from these storms will negatively impact destabilization. In spite of this, instability is forecast to develop further to the west from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas and west-central Nebraska. NAM forecast soundings from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas in the late afternoon have moderate deep-layer, mainly due to a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the potential for severe storms could be dampened by subsidence in the wake of the exiting mid-level trough. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from the boundary where surface moisture is less robust. With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Southeast... A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast. Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more