Aggregator

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 020247 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.1W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.1W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 125.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020054Z - 020230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized risk of severe wind and hail will continue for another hour or so across southeastern Colorado. DISCUSSION...Two fairly persistent/organized clusters of severe storms continue advancing eastward across the southeastern CO Plains this evening -- both generally focused along intersecting outflow boundaries. Rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) and steep deep-layer lapse rates are yielding a corridor of weak-moderate surface-based buoyancy, which should continue to support the maintenance of these storm clusters for another hour or so -- especially given around 30 kt of deep-layer shear (per nearby VWP data). While these storms will continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail in the near-term, the overall risk still appears too spatially/temporally limited for a watch (see DDC 00Z sounding). ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37600334 38480357 38830351 39290315 39380258 39120210 38360218 37590224 37130260 37120295 37600334 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE DEN TO 35 WNW SNY TO 50 ENE SNY. ..WEINMAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-020240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC033-105-020240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIMBALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE DEN TO 35 WNW SNY TO 50 ENE SNY. ..WEINMAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-020240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC033-105-020240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIMBALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW 4BQ TO 55 SW 2WX TO 50 SSE 2WX TO 60 S Y22 TO 45 ESE Y22 TO 30 ENE MBG. ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-033-041-055-071-075-081-093-095-103-117-137-020240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON STANLEY ZIEBACH WYC005-011-045-020240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW 4BQ TO 55 SW 2WX TO 50 SSE 2WX TO 60 S Y22 TO 45 ESE Y22 TO 30 ENE MBG. ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-033-041-055-071-075-081-093-095-103-117-137-020240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON STANLEY ZIEBACH WYC005-011-045-020240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

MD 1867 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 564... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WY...THE SOUTHWESTERN NE PANHANDLE...AND NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1867 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0558 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast WY...the southwestern NE Panhandle...and northeast CO Concerning...Tornado Watch 564... Valid 012258Z - 020100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 564 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk should continue increasing across Tornado Watch 564, especially with east-southeastward extent into this evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes all remain possible. DISCUSSION...Recent radar and IR satellite imagery show an increase in thunderstorm intensity across far southeast WY -- generally focused along an outflow boundary that moved into the area. These storms are now impinging on an axis of upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and steep low/midlevel lapse rates. This moderately unstable air mass (around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per CYS VWP and mesoanalysis) should support continued intensification of these storms, especially as they continue east-southeastward into this evening. While strong outflow generation may continue to promote clustering/localized upscale growth (with a related severe wind risk), the favorable deep-layer shear/buoyancy and sufficient boundary-layer helicity (around 130 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) will also support embedded supercell structures -- capable of producing sporadic large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41310522 41580424 41990406 41990365 41790293 41440262 41000279 40640330 40440416 40570474 41020529 41310522 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565... FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Northeast WY into western SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565... Valid 012337Z - 020100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565 continues. SUMMARY...A severe-storm threat will continue into this evening. DISCUSSION...A supercell that earlier developed near an MCV across northwest SD has evolved into a small bowing segment, with recent vigorous updraft development noted along its southern flank. With some increase in the low-level jet expected with time this evening, this small cluster may persist and grow in size, with some potential for supercell development along its southern periphery. Strong to severe gusts remain possible, especially with the bowing portion of the cluster. If any supercells can develop within the cluster or along the southern flank, some enhancement to low-level SRH (from both the MCV and the nocturnally increasing low-level jet) would support a threat for a tornado, in addition to large hail. Farther southwest, attempts at isolated storm development continue over the Black Hills, and an isolated supercell or two could evolve with time. Meanwhile, storms have gradually increased in coverage and intensity through late afternoon across parts of central into northeast WY. While deep-layer flow/shear is somewhat weaker compared to areas farther east, steep low/midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg could support a few strong cells or clusters into this evening capable of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. WW 565 was recently expanded across parts of northeast WY in order to cover this threat. ..Dean.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 44860682 44980326 45930256 45860106 45450073 44700065 43590254 43080506 43020560 42820661 43090689 43740673 44380678 44860682 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more