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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day 8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week. There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build. ...Great Basin... Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain trough/ridge evolution. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon, and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1862 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1862 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Central Mississippi and western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011907Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Damaging winds are becoming increasingly possible across central Mississippi and far western Alabama. However, the overall magnitude of this threat should remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent imagery from KGWX and KDGX shows convective clusters developing across central MS as a diffuse cold front begins to impinge on a moist and uncapped air mass. Recent RAP and HRRR forecast soundings appear to be capturing near-surface temperature/dewpoint trends well, and suggest MLCAPE values are within the 2000-2500 J/kg range with theta-e deficits on the order of 20-25 K, and 0-1 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment is favorable for strong wet downbursts, which will become increasingly likely as cold pool amalgamation/upscale growth continues with the gradual intensification of the emerging thunderstorm cluster. Sporadic damaging wind gusts (most likely within the 45-55 mph range) appear likely, though a gust or two near 60 mph will be possible as this activity spreads south/southeast through late afternoon. Very weak flow aloft sampled by regional VWPs (generally 15 knots or less through 7 km) will limit the potential for appreciable storm organization and more substantial peak gusts, though isolated instances wind damage are anticipated. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33309046 33698935 34058826 33908768 33628738 33148734 32588746 32238767 32038798 31918858 31918916 31978955 32048988 32189019 32379042 32629053 32859063 32999064 33309046 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0564 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0564 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more