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MD 1863 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1863 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of western Nebraska and adjacent southwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011951Z - 012145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development, including the evolution of a few supercells, appears probable through 3-5 PM MDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Downstream of an upper jet nosing inland of the central California coast through the Great Basin, modest surface troughing is slowly deepening to the lee of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. Low-level moisture return on southerly flow to the east of the trough axis is ongoing, and contributing to substantive destabilization in the presence of steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. This now appears to include moderately large CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, where deep-layer shear (mostly due to pronounced veering of winds with height, in the presence of otherwise weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow) appears at least marginally conducive to organized convection, including supercells. High-based convection has been initiating and increasing in coverage near and west of the Colorado Front Range through the Laramies the past couple of hours. Gradually, as mid/upper support for this activity shifts to the east of the higher terrain, scattered thunderstorm activity will begin to develop east of the higher terrain into the stronger potential instability across the adjacent plains. As this occurs, substantive intensification appears probable, including the evolution of a few supercells posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado or two by 21-23Z. ..Kerr/Smith.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43190420 42870349 41300299 39730202 38690302 38990361 39970331 40430431 40920475 41440499 42250485 42570510 43190420 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 20:40:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 21:27:21 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more