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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 14:39:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 15:21:53 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 14:39:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 14:39:21 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 021435 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 Gil is weakening as the center is now over sea surface temperatures near 25C. Satellite imagery shows that the associated convection is decreasing and becoming asymmetric, with little convection left in the western semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now trending downward, and based on this Gil is downgraded to a tropical storm with 60-kt winds. The initial motion is 295/17. Gil is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge to the north, and a generally west-northwestward motion should continue for the next day or two. After that, a more westward motion is expected as the cyclone weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. There is little change in the track guidance from the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Gil should continue weakening as it moves over cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggests the cyclone should stop producing convection at around 36 h, and thus the intensity forecast again indicates post-tropical status at that time. While the sea surface temperatures increase along the forecast track after 36 h, increasing westerly shear and dry air entraining should keep the cyclone or its remnants weakening. The new forecast follows the previous forecast in showing dissipation between 96-120 h, which is in agreement with the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 22.7N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 021435 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 76 X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 130W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 2 10(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 630 WTPZ32 KNHC 021435 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 ...GIL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 128.6W ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed through Sunday night. A slower motion toward the west is forecast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Gil is likely to become post-tropical Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...GIL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Aug 02 the center of Gil was located near 18.3, -128.6 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 021434 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 128.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 128.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.7N 141.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin. This shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward within the northern periphery of the ridge centered over southern AZ/NM, reaching the central Rockies around 18-21Z. Ascent attendant to this wave will foster convective initiation over the high terrain during the afternoon while the deep westerly flow encourages storms to move off the terrain into the High Plains. The airmass immediately downstream will be warm and deeply mixed, with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints likely in the mid 50s. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help promote moderate buoyancy within this warm and modestly moist environment, which should allow for a few stronger storms. Large hail is possible within the early-stage cellular development, particularly over the higher terrain. While in this environment, storms will likely trend towards a more outflow dominant structure. However, greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely be in place farther east (from the CO/KS border vicinity southward into the northwest TX Panhandle), with some potential for reintensification of the ongoing storms and/or new development along surging outflows. Resultant clustering/upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining any stronger clusters while also encouraging a more south-southeastward motion into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts are the primary risk within these clusters. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will help support strong downbursts within any more persistent convection. ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/02/2025 Read more