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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...20z... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details). These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...20z... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details). These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...20z... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details). These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...20z... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details). These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...20z... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details). These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...20z... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details). These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more