Aggregator

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2025 778 WTPZ22 KNHC 030238 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 132.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 132.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 131.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.1N 137.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.7N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 142.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.2N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N 148.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 132.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 779 WTPZ32 KNHC 030238 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 PM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 ...GIL WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 132.0W ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 132.0 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, with a turn toward the west forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Gil is expected to become post-tropical on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...GIL WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Aug 02 the center of Gil was located near 19.5, -132.0 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW TCC TO 35 NW LAA TO 20 S GLD. PARTS OF WW 566 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATUS MESSAGE. ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-071-099-030340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS NMC021-059-030340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING UNION OKC025-030340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW TCC TO 35 NW LAA TO 20 S GLD. PARTS OF WW 566 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATUS MESSAGE. ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-071-099-030340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS NMC021-059-030340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING UNION OKC025-030340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW TCC TO 35 NW LAA TO 20 S GLD. PARTS OF WW 566 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATUS MESSAGE. ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-071-099-030340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS NMC021-059-030340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING UNION OKC025-030340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW TCC TO 35 NW LAA TO 20 S GLD. PARTS OF WW 566 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATUS MESSAGE. ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-071-099-030340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS NMC021-059-030340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING UNION OKC025-030340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW TCC TO 35 NW LAA TO 20 S GLD. PARTS OF WW 566 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATUS MESSAGE. ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-071-099-030340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS NMC021-059-030340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING UNION OKC025-030340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW TCC TO 35 NW LAA TO 20 S GLD. PARTS OF WW 566 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATUS MESSAGE. ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-071-099-030340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS NMC021-059-030340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING UNION OKC025-030340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 566 SEVERE TSTM CO NE NM OK TX 022100Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Far Northeast New Mexico Western Oklahoma Panhandle Northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify this afternoon and move east across the Watch through the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will be potentially capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Sidney NE to 50 miles west southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1874 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566...567... FOR SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...NORTHEAST NM...OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1874 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO...southwest KS...northeast NM...OK and northern TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566...567... Valid 030047Z - 030215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566, 567 continues. SUMMARY...A large-hail threat will continue in the short term, with some increase in the severe-wind threat possible with time. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have recently intensified across southeast CO, as high-based convection and attendant outflow has encountered a more unstable and less capped environment. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE near/above 2000 J/kg, and moderate effective shear within the midlevel northwesterly flow regime will support a short-term threat for large to very large hail with these cells, along with some potential for isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly a tornado. Storm mergers and expanding outflow are expected to eventually result in some upscale growth, which would be aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet through the evening. This evolution could lead to a greater coverage of severe-wind potential with time. Farther south, multiple strong to severe cells have persisted across Union County, NM. While CINH remains downstream, one or more of these storms may eventually move into the western OK/TX Panhandles with at least a localized severe hail/wind threat, especially if any clustering can occur. New watch issuance is possible into more of the OK/TX Panhandles later this evening, especially if an organized MCS evolves across southeast CO and moves southeastward, as suggested by recent short-term CAM guidance. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 38890255 38760175 38220072 36800072 35900126 35440171 35320240 35430329 36310391 38550398 38890255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE COS TO 30 W ITR TO 40 N ITR TO 30 WSW IML TO 30 NE AKO TO 45 E FCL TO 35 SW FCL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-061-063-071-075-089-095-099-115-030240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-030240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL NMC021-059-030240- Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-025-039-055-057-063-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-119- 129-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-030240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-057-085-087-135-145-030240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DUNDY HAYES HITCHCOCK PERKINS RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-025-039-055-057-063-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-119- 129-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-030240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-057-085-087-135-145-030240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DUNDY HAYES HITCHCOCK PERKINS RED WILLOW Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more