Aggregator

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 373 WTPZ32 KNHC 031431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 ...GIL NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 135.7W ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 135.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, with a turn toward the west forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected over the next few days, and the post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate around midweek. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Gil. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...GIL NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Aug 03 the center of Gil was located near 20.6, -135.7 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2025 484 WTPZ22 KNHC 031431 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 135.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 135.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 134.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.2N 138.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.7N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.9N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 151.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 135.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the Northwest during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains... A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today, leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution. The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow, allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could result in a few storms as well. Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible. ...Central High Plains... Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop. ...Northwest... Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031118
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gil, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.

Central East Pacific (EP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well west-southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area
of low pressure. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by midweek. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AMA TO 15 ESE AMA TO 55 WNW CSM TO 35 N CSM. ..BENTLEY..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-031140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM TXC011-087-129-179-381-483-031140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY RANDALL WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 568 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 030435Z - 031100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Oklahoma Panhandle and Western Oklahoma The Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1135 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells should continue to pose a threat for isolated large to very large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter through the early morning hours. Scattered severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph may also occur with any clusters that can form and spread southeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Dalhart TX to 110 miles east northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 567... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Gleason Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2025 08:34:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2025 09:21:41 GMT

MD 1876 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1876 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568... Valid 030738Z - 030915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568 continues. SUMMARY...A few severe storms are likely to persist through the early morning. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues southeastward this morning across the Texas Panhandle. The western storm has recently strengthened with a tightening reflectivity gradient on the leading edge of the supercell. This storm will likely have the greatest severe weather threat as it continues southeast over the next 1 to 2 hours. An additional stronger storm across Lipscomb county will move southeast into far western Oklahoma. However, it will also move into progressively less unstable air as it move east and therefore, its severe potential is not expected to persist as long as the western storm. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from both storms. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35560231 36280215 36540098 36510073 36600043 36549993 36319970 35879947 35429935 35169946 35009980 34910049 34930130 34990205 35070221 35560231 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE TCC TO 35 SSE DHT TO BGD TO 25 ENE BGD TO 50 ENE BGD TO 65 NW CSM TO 55 NW CSM TO 50 NNW CSM TO 50 SSW AVK. ..BENTLEY..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-129-031040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ROGER MILLS TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-211-359-375-381-393-483-031040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more