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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible late this afternoon through the evening over parts of the central/southern High Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows a sub-severe, decaying MCS over the TX-OK Red River Valley. Incipient outflow and cloud cover has cast considerable uncertainty on storm coverage late today/tonight across the eastern portion of the outlook area in the southern Plains. It seems likely based on midday observational trends that a reduction in severe probabilities is warranted across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX. The airmass sampled within wake of the strongest influence of the cold pool by the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob showed meager buoyancy. As a result, a westward shift of some of the severe probabilities was done for this outlook update. An upstream disturbance over northwest KS is forecast to move southeast into central OK by late this evening. Strong heating will likely focus near the NM/TX north-south border into southeast CO. Models show isolated to widely scattered storm development late this afternoon into the evening over the TX South Plains into southeast CO. Steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with veering/strengthening winds with height will support a supercell risk. Large to very large hail is possible. There is some indication in the models that a cluster may evolve during the evening/overnight across parts of west/northwest TX and a lingering hail/wind threat could continue with this activity. Models still show some possibility for elevated storms farther east in the Red River Valley region during the overnight. Marginal hail/wind could accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains... No change was made to this portion of the outlook and previous forecast thinking supporting a marginal risk (level 1/5) seems appropriate. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon near a weak area of low pressure/lee trough. Moderate buoyancy will support a few vigorous updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, thereby limiting storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and severe wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms. ...Northwest... A mid-level trough evident in morning water-vapor imagery west of the CA/OR coast will continue migrating east into northern CA/OR by tonight. Adequate moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with ascent will facilitate the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Modest deep-layer shear will probably support some organization to convective outflow as storms and especially outflow increase in coverage by early this evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/03/2025 Read more