SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil, located well east of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Central East Pacific (EP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula are associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is very likely to form during the next day or two while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by midweek. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Rosado-Vazquez
NHC Webmaster

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 5 days ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more