Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040524
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have become slightly better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is very likely to form during the next day
or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure just offshore of Central America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS TO 35 SSW AVK TO 20 SE P28. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 ..DEAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-039-043-055-075-093-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CUSTER DEWEY GREER KIOWA MAJOR WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS TO 35 SSW AVK TO 20 SE P28. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 ..DEAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-039-043-055-075-093-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CUSTER DEWEY GREER KIOWA MAJOR WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS TO 35 SSW AVK TO 20 SE P28. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 ..DEAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-039-043-055-075-093-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CUSTER DEWEY GREER KIOWA MAJOR WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS TO 35 SSW AVK TO 20 SE P28. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1882 ..DEAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-009-011-015-039-043-055-075-093-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CUSTER DEWEY GREER KIOWA MAJOR WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1882 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570... FOR PARTS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1882 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0929 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of OK/TX Panhandles into northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570... Valid 040229Z - 040400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe wind and hail will spread south-southeastward through the evening. DISCUSSION...Downstream of ongoing long-lived severe storms, the environment remains favorable into parts of the OK and northern TX Panhandles into northern OK, with moderate to strong instability, favorable deep-layer shear, and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs. An intense storm cluster that earlier moved through Dodge City (where wind gusts of 70-85 mph were observed) has moved into northwest OK and the eastern OK Panhandle. This cluster has a relatively strong cold pool and still appears capable of producing severe gusts as it moves south-southeastward. Strong updrafts along the western flank of this cluster will also be capable of producing large hail. Longevity of the severe threat with this cluster is somewhat uncertain, given increasing CINH with time, though a seasonably strong mid/upper-level jet may help to sustain the cluster through late evening, with at least an isolated severe threat. Farther west, a long-lived supercell has moved into the western OK Panhandle. The longevity of this cell may be relatively limited, given a recent weakening trend and increasing downstream CINH. However, large hail and locally gusty winds will remain possible for as long as this cell persists. ..Dean.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36950234 36720029 36919915 36809854 36089832 35389854 35179939 35590027 35950116 36280209 36950234 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 570 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 040055Z - 040800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 755 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle The Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 755 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell across far southwest Kansas will continue to pose a threat for large to very large hail as it moves southward into parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. An intense thunderstorm cluster will also spread southward this evening and overnight from southwest Kansas into parts of western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Severe/damaging winds appear likely with this cluster, and peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Guymon OK to 55 miles south southeast of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 569... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35030. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central Plains. ...Southern Plains... A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb) nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts this evening. Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue overnight. Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm development through this evening, though confidence in this occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for severe hail and wind gusts. ...Northwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2025 Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0570 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0570 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1881 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST CO...THE OK PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southwest KS...far southeast CO...the OK Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle...and northwest OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569... Valid 032321Z - 040045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk, including the potential for very large hail and severe wind gusts, will continue spreading southward across southwest KS in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569. A downstream watch should eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GLD/DDC depicts a complex convective evolution across southwest KS this evening. Along the western KS/eastern CO border, a long-lived discrete supercell is tracking southward, which will continue to pose a risk of very large hail, severe wind gusts, and brief tornadoes (given a strong/established mesocyclone and unstable boundary layer). To its east, an earlier long-lived supercell is evolving into a large cluster of storms, with chaotic storm splits and new updrafts developing along outflow. A long/straight hodograph (around 50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy should continue to promote storm splits and embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts. However, the recent signs of upscale growth into a large cluster may tend to favor an increasing risk of severe wind gusts with time/southward extent. In general, this activity will continue spreading southward across southwest KS (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569), and eventually into the OK/TX Panhandles and possibly northwest OK. While lingering inhibition associated with previous convective overturning does cast some uncertainty on the severe risk with southward extent, the established storms and favorable deep-layer shear should support a continued risk. Therefore, a downstream watch should eventually be needed. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37970231 38390189 38580025 38399945 38009920 37209920 36649950 36270003 36150100 36230200 36590247 37130254 37970231 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LAA TO 40 S RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881 ..WEINMAN..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-119-129-175-187-189- 040140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY MEADE MORTON SEWARD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more