Aggregator

871
ABPZ20 KNHC 041714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight-E, located well southwest of the Baja California
Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area low pressure just offshore of the coast of Central
America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/04/2025 Read more

The city of Yachats requested that residents conserve water by restricting the number of days that they perform outdoor watering after the month of July was unusually dry. Lincoln Chronicle (Ore.), Aug 3, 2025

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 000 WTNT44 KNHC 041530 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 Several bursts of deep convection have formed with Dexter this morning, but the latest visible satellite images suggest the center is on the far western edge of the cirrus canopy, partially exposed. The intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged for 12 UTC, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS (ADT, DPRINT, DMINT) support maintaining a current intensity of 40 kt this advisory. Dexter continues to move northeastward, a bit faster than earlier at 050/12 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days with a brief slowdown as the storm is steered by a narrow subtropical ridge located to its southeast. In around 60 h, a shortwave trough dropping southward from Atlantic Canada may try to phase with Dexter. However, the global and ensemble model guidance is split if their interaction will be favorable, causing the storm to accelerate northeastward, or unfavorable, leaving Dexter behind as a convection-less remnant low. For this cycle, the track guidance has shifted a bit faster to the northeast, and the NHC track has also been shifted faster, but generally along the same track as the previous advisory. It is worth noting that the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) is a significant fast outlier, and it will be interesting to see if the overall model guidance continues to trend faster with Dexter's motion. Intensity-wise, Dexter is likely to face an increasingly hostile environment, with westerly vertical wind shear increasing above 30 kt in about 24 h. Thus, only a little additional strengthening is shown in the forecast for today, then capping the intensity at 45 kt through the rest of this week. However, since the cyclone will remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters until it passes poleward of 40N, it will likely continue to produce periodic bursts of deep convection, helping to maintain its intensity in the face of the unfavorable shear. After 60 h, the guidance remains split on whether or not Dexter will become a remnant low, or phase with the upper-level trough nearby, becoming a stronger extratropical low. While the latest intensity forecast shows the latter solution panning out, as mentioned previously, Dexter's final structure remains quite uncertain near the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 35.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 37.6N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 38.5N 61.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 39.4N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 40.1N 55.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 41.0N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 43.9N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 46.5N 36.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin