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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies vicinity... An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD 1888 for more short term details. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies vicinity... An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD 1888 for more short term details. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies vicinity... An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD 1888 for more short term details. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies vicinity... An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD 1888 for more short term details. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies vicinity... An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD 1888 for more short term details. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies vicinity... An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD 1888 for more short term details. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies vicinity... An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD 1888 for more short term details. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...Northern Rockies vicinity... An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD 1888 for more short term details. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BIL TO 35 SE LWT TO 15 NW 3DU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1887 ..WEINMAN..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-013-015-027-033-041-045-049-051-065-069-071-073-087- 099-101-103-105-111-050140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CASCADE CHOUTEAU FERGUS GARFIELD HILL JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PONDERA ROSEBUD TETON TOOLE TREASURE VALLEY YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888 ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-050140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS NMC059-050140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-050140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-050040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-050040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-101-105-123-135-157- 161-165-050040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHEYENNE DAWES Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 4 23:46:10 UTC 2025.

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-050040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-050040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-101-105-123-135-157- 161-165-050040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHEYENNE DAWES Read more

WW 571 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 042100Z - 050400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East-Central and Northeast Colorado Far Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Far Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. A few of the stronger storms are likely to become supercellular and pose a risk for mainly large to very large hail. A tornado is possible mainly this evening when low-level shear increases. Scattered severe gusts are also possible with the more intense storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northwest of Chadron NE to 45 miles south southwest of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31010. ...Smith Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-050040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS NMC059-050040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-050040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON Read more

WW 572 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 042205Z - 050400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Far Northeast New Mexico The Western Oklahoma Panhandle The Far Northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Slow-moving supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail this afternoon and evening. Peak hailstone diameters may reach up to 2-3 inches on an isolated basis. Occasional severe/damaging winds could also occur if any clusters can form, although this potential remains uncertain. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Lamar CO to 30 miles south southeast of Clayton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 571... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32010. ...Gleason Read more

Oregon Governor Tina Kotek declared a drought emergency for Douglas, Union and Morrow counties on Aug. 4. The drought declaration makes accessible a number of drought-related emergency tools. KPIC-TV (Roseburg, Ore.), Aug 4, 2025

985
ABPZ20 KNHC 042321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well southwest of the Baja California
Peninsula. Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific
basin Thursday night or Friday.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure just offshore of the coast of Central
America is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042319
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing minimal shower activity. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of
this week as the system moves generally west-northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Southeastern United States:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a day or two
several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United
States. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the middle or latter portion of this week as the system moves slowly
westward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0573 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more