Aggregator

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0573 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 573 SEVERE TSTM MT 042240Z - 050500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should spread east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph. Isolated large hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter may also occur with any of the stronger cells that can persist. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Great Falls MT to 75 miles south of Glasgow MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 571...WW 572... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Areas affected...Central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042035Z - 042230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop through the afternoon within the higher terrain. These will spread north/northeast and produce severe winds and isolated large hail. A watch is possible for parts of central/eastern Montana. DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of cirrus overspreading the northern Rockies, thunderstorms are beginning to initiate and deepen within southwest into central Montana this afternoon. Additional cumulus development is also noted along the weak surface trough. Greater surface heating and moisture farther east has allowed MLCIN to erode away from the terrain. It may take another 1-2 hours for MLCIN near the terrain to erode. Over the remainder of the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop and move north and east. Moisture will have some tendency to mix out where surface heating occurs, but should support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear is currently weak within the region per VAD and 18Z TFX sounding data. However, this should improve as the compact mid-level jet moves through the northern Rockies this evening. Some supercell structures along with linear segments will be possible. The main hazard will be severe wind gusts given the large temperature-dewpoint spreads. Isolated large hail may also occur, especially with supercells. ..Wendt/Smith.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47360770 46600759 45740843 45630890 45750988 46091102 46501165 46981193 47521224 48111269 48551284 48841265 49051247 49070934 48400881 48020837 47360770 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1886 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST WY...SOUTHEAST MT...AND WESTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1886 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Areas affected...northeast WY...southeast MT...and western SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042038Z - 042215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells may develop with a threat of severe hail/wind downstream of the Big Horn Mountains and along the western/southern slopes of the Black Hills. While overall coverage/intensity should be less compared to farther south in the central High Plains, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible in the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Initial high-based, low-topped thunderstorms have formed along the lee of the Big Horn Mountains, with a separate arc of congested CU along the west to south flank of the Black Hills. Much of the region between and ahead of these regimes is characterized by upper 40s to mid 50s surface dew points with large temperature/dew point spreads. This is yielding more modest buoyancy relative to eastern CO and southwest NE. Still, moderate deep-layer shear should support a few high-based supercells across southwest SD into the northeast WY/far southeast MT vicinity by early evening. A mix of sporadic severe hail and wind appears possible. Expected coverage/intensity appears marginally supportive of Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Grams/Smith.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... LAT...LON 46000496 45230368 43740245 43040238 42880267 43080404 43200487 43970503 45180643 45650639 46000496 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0572 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1884 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1884 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Areas affected...the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 042007Z - 042200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado or two are possible across parts of the central High Plains. A single or pair of Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered high-based CU/CBs have been noted from the Laramie Mountains to Pikes Peak, with isolated development along the South Platte and AR Valleys in eastern CO. Much of this initial activity is occurring where surface dew point depressions of 35-45 F are common. This suggests convection may struggle to rapidly intensify, but should gradually strengthen into early evening. Farther east, the western extent of low to mid 60s surface dewpoints exists across far eastern CO, yielding much more ample MLCAPE. Most guidance suggests at least one storm should become sustained in southeast CO over the AR Valley and could be a longer-lasting supercell given the environment. Otherwise, the higher-based convection to the west and northwest will probably consist of outflow-dominated supercell structures with a mix of sporadic large hail and severe gusts. ..Grams/Smith.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37650346 39770418 40910460 42590500 42990461 43100391 42710323 41340222 39960202 38280179 37150185 36940244 37050295 37650346 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-042240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-042240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-101-105-123-135-157- 161-165-042240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHEYENNE DAWES Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-042240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-042240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-101-105-123-135-157- 161-165-042240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHEYENNE DAWES Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 20:36:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 21:26:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 20:36:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 21:26:37 GMT

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more