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Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...HENRIETTE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 123.1W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 123.1 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...HENRIETTE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Aug 04 the center of Henriette was located near 15.9, -123.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 714 WTPZ23 KNHC 050841 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 130.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 139.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 144.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 149.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 123.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more