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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Air mass recovery trends continue to be monitored across the Dakotas in the wake of morning convection. Breaks in the cloud cover have led to heating across central/western South Dakota to the southern North Dakota line. Warm moist air continues to spread northward south of the differential heating boundary located across southern ND into central SD. It appears that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely through the afternoon as further destabilization continues. See MCD#1890 for more detailed information on expected storm evolution through the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Air mass recovery trends continue to be monitored across the Dakotas in the wake of morning convection. Breaks in the cloud cover have led to heating across central/western South Dakota to the southern North Dakota line. Warm moist air continues to spread northward south of the differential heating boundary located across southern ND into central SD. It appears that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely through the afternoon as further destabilization continues. See MCD#1890 for more detailed information on expected storm evolution through the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Air mass recovery trends continue to be monitored across the Dakotas in the wake of morning convection. Breaks in the cloud cover have led to heating across central/western South Dakota to the southern North Dakota line. Warm moist air continues to spread northward south of the differential heating boundary located across southern ND into central SD. It appears that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely through the afternoon as further destabilization continues. See MCD#1890 for more detailed information on expected storm evolution through the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Air mass recovery trends continue to be monitored across the Dakotas in the wake of morning convection. Breaks in the cloud cover have led to heating across central/western South Dakota to the southern North Dakota line. Warm moist air continues to spread northward south of the differential heating boundary located across southern ND into central SD. It appears that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely through the afternoon as further destabilization continues. See MCD#1890 for more detailed information on expected storm evolution through the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Air mass recovery trends continue to be monitored across the Dakotas in the wake of morning convection. Breaks in the cloud cover have led to heating across central/western South Dakota to the southern North Dakota line. Warm moist air continues to spread northward south of the differential heating boundary located across southern ND into central SD. It appears that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely through the afternoon as further destabilization continues. See MCD#1890 for more detailed information on expected storm evolution through the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Air mass recovery trends continue to be monitored across the Dakotas in the wake of morning convection. Breaks in the cloud cover have led to heating across central/western South Dakota to the southern North Dakota line. Warm moist air continues to spread northward south of the differential heating boundary located across southern ND into central SD. It appears that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely through the afternoon as further destabilization continues. See MCD#1890 for more detailed information on expected storm evolution through the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Air mass recovery trends continue to be monitored across the Dakotas in the wake of morning convection. Breaks in the cloud cover have led to heating across central/western South Dakota to the southern North Dakota line. Warm moist air continues to spread northward south of the differential heating boundary located across southern ND into central SD. It appears that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely through the afternoon as further destabilization continues. See MCD#1890 for more detailed information on expected storm evolution through the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into Thursday night across the northern Great Plains. Isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northern Great Plains... While mesoscale details at this timeframe are unclear, potential exists for higher-end severe intensity and coverage on Thursday late afternoon into the night. A shortwave trough will amplify across the Northwest and northern Rockies, as a vigorous impulse digs southeastward from coastal BC. Downstream, the elevated mixed layer will expand across the Dakotas and MN. A lack of widespread convective overturning on D2 will support seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture advecting northwestward across the Dakotas to eastern MT. This will yield large to potentially extreme buoyancy by peak heating Thursday, centered on northern NE into southern ND. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT by late afternoon to early evening. Storms will spread east-northeast and impinge on the pronounced buoyancy plume during the evening/night, potentially sustaining an intensifying MCS. Meanwhile, some guidance suggests separate late-day storm development will occur along the strengthening baroclinic zone in ND, with isolated storms possible southward along a lee trough. This activity too could grow upscale, mainly in ND, and progress towards the Red River Valley on Thursday night. Significant severe appears most likely in the ND portion of the level 2-SLGT risk. Very large hail is possible in initial supercells, in addition to significant severe gusts during the downstream cluster/MCS phase. ...Upper Midwest... Nebulous, low-probability severe potential is evident along the northeast lobe of the expansive buoyancy plume over the central states on Thursday into Thursday night. Minor MCVs from remnants of D2 convection may focus localized corridors of diurnal storm development from the IA/IL/WI border region to western Upper MI. More probable convective development should occur Thursday night, north-northeast of the southern High Plains to Lower MO Valley low-level jet. Amid modest northwesterlies but weak lapse rates in the mid levels, mainly strong to perhaps marginally severe intensities are anticipated. ..Grams.. 08/05/2025 Read more